This weekend we have some exciting racing at Cheltenham
and Doncaster. But, before that, we have
another great day of racing today, with meetings at Huntingdon and Doncaster
and, for the first time this week, we have what looks to be a value wager in
what could be a weak race for the grade.
The meeting at Doncaster did look like it was going to
present us with a wagering opportunity earlier in the week when I reviewed the
entries, but the races have not developed as I’d hoped. The most interesting race there is the 3-mile
novice chase at 3:05pm with a small field of 5-runners. The race-fav is Thomas
Brown sent by Harry Fry, but I’m very interested in Saint Roque trained by Paul
Nicholls, and Vintage Vinnie trained by Rebecca Curtis and ridden by Barry
Geraghty. The booking of Geraghty is interesting, and connections will be
hoping he can rekindle the early season enthusiasm about Vintage Vinnie today. This is a tricky race to decifer and none of
these can be fully discounted – it should be a race worth watching and taking
note of, especially with the Cheltenham Festival in mind.
For today’s selection I’m looking at Huntingdon, and the 2m4f
Class 3 handicap chase at 2:10pm. There are 9-runners going to post and one of
them has been on my alert list for a few seasons: Denali Highway. He is Caroline Bailey’s only runner here
today, and soft ground and 2m4f are the conditions under which he’s done best
in the past. This season he’s had just 2
runs, the first of which was after a break from the track of 18 months from
March 2014 to November 2015. That was over this C&D and he ran well to be 2nd,
clearly looking like the run would do him some good after such a long break
from the track. Next time out, over
3-miles at Warwick, he ran well again but he’s never been a 3-mile chaser and
again looked like he didn’t stay the trip in this race. As such, he’s slipped
down the ratings to OR120 today, and I reckon he’s an OR130+ horse over this
sort of trip and ground. He will be
race-fit today, and it could be that his trainer has aimed him at this race
since his seasonal debut here last November.
The others in the race all appear to have doubts over
them, be it either trip or ground.
Artifice Sivola is unproven at this trip; Cadoudoff does not look happy
on soft ground; and The Clock Leary has been unable to repeat his chase debut
form and is possibly over-rated. The
only one I fear is another from my alert list; Dusky Lark who ran well on his
chase debut despite having no luck in running, yet hit the 1st-fence
hard LTO and lost his confidence. He could go well if he starts this race well.
Overall, I’m happy to go with DENALI HIGHWAY and although
we have missed the early 6/1 on offer, he’s currently 5/1 with several bookies
(Bet365, BetVictor, and Paddy Power etc) and I think he will go off the clear
fav at the off at around 7/2.
Selection
Huntingdon 2:10pm DENALI HIGHWAY, £10 win @ 5/1
(available generally)
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