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advising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Saturday, 17 December 2016

Paul Nicholls to the punters rescue

We have had a week of fairly indifferent horseracing, and it has been left to Saturday (again) to rescue the sport. 

With 3 race meetings at Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle we should have a wager.  
I've already outlined the chance of LE MERCUREY at Ascot in the 3-mile "Silver Cup" at 3pm this afternoon to those on my email list on Friday evening.  He was 12/1 when I sent out the email, and that is long gone now with 9/1 the best of what is available - so I hope those on the email list all got on.

Why do I like LE MERCUREY? 
Initially, my  thoughts are that Minella Daddy looks to be ithe best chance, as the fav Go Conqueris untried at this sort of trip. The Nicky Richards horse Eduard looks very well handicapped if coming-on for his recent run, which was his first race in over 18-months. Again there is a stamina doubt but he has the class to overcome that, but there is also the doubt that he will be able to overcome the long trip from the Cumbrian stable of his trainer - who's horses are nortoriously bad at travelling long distances to race.. Irish Saint does not look a 3-mile chaser, let's hope he does not prove me wrong today.  While we know Minella Daddy is, and we know he handles this Ascot track, I'm not sure he's particularly well handicapped now running off OR142, up 11lb for his LTO win. 
The "value" looks to be Le Mercurey as he stays 3-mile, is race-fit, handles right-handed Ascot, and looks to still be improving being only a 6yo.

At Haydock we have the 3-mile "Tommy Whittle" Chase at 2:40pm and what is interesting is that Venetia Williams sends the hurdler Yala Enki for his chase debut in this race. Yala Enki has plenty of experience chasing in France as a 4yo but he was running nowhere near his current rating of OR139 at that time.  
The fav for the race is Corrin Wood who is having his debut chase run for Dan Skelton, and if he can recover the form of his novice chase season then he is absolutely chucked in (he beat OR155 rated Black Thunder by a couple of lengths in Jan2014) and even the best form of season 2014-15 when on OR144 he would win this as he runs off OR128 in this. 
I prefer real form to potential form, and that brings in the unconsidered COURTOWN OSCAR a 7yo who has won 3 of his 7 chases on ground that is soft or heavy. With TrickawayVieux Lille and Kayfleur all doubtful stayers at this 3-mile trip and Top Woodand Upswing both needing to recover their form of old. this race could go to an outsider and Courtown Oscar has all the attributes. He stays the trip well. likes to go with the pace, and what I like about him is that he seems to do just enough without attracting the handicappers attention.  He possibly needed the run LTO when having his seasonal debut over hurdles yet he still ran well.  He looks tremendous value at 16/1 (as the bookies are paying 4 places eachway).

I am also having a small eachway double wager on the pair.

Haydock 2:40pm COURTOWN OSCAR, £5 eachway @ 16/1 (available generally, at quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)
Ascot 3:00pm LE MERCUREY, £5 eachway @ 12/1 (as advised to those on the email list)

£2 Eachway double 
COURTOWN OSCAR @ 16/1 and LE MERCURY @ 9/1 (Bet Victor quarter-odds a place 1,2,3) 

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