First thing, the great race itself.
I went through the runners earlier in the week, and my opinion hasn't changed.
My opinion is that the ground is possibly on the soft side of good out on the National course and the race may be more testing than expected. I want horses that genuinely stay the trip on my side and I want horses that are well prepared with this race in mind. I've narrowed the field down to 4 horses -
Blaklion (14/1), Perfect Candidate (50/1), Pleasant Company (16/1), and Thunder and Roses (33/1).
As for the other races on the card today, I am expecting CHARBEL to win the novice chase at 3pm, but then he is odds-on today. The handicap chase at 3:40pm over 3m1f looks a good race to be involved in and I am taken by POTTERS LEGEND who stayed well at Cheltenham LTO and looks the type to keep improving. Some of the others still have to prove their stamina at this sort of trip, or have been off the course for longer than I would like, but Potters Legend is in decent form and has been running consistently.
In the Stayers Hurdle over 3-mile at 4:20pm, I have thought this is the trip for Yanworth all season, but his run in the Champion Hurdle LTO was so poor that I feel he has something to prove today and I would not want to be on him. The Irish challenger Supasundae is on the upgrade and could be the one to be on, but this in another race for me to sit out.
As such, I'm concentrating on the Grand National and my idea of the eventual winner is BLAKLION. He has only 11st 1lb to carry and he has that touch of class having won the RSA Chase at Cheltenham as a novice last season. He has been prepared for this and I know him as a very consistent performer. I am expecting big runs from the other 3 on my shortlist too. PLEASANT COMPANY is another that has been aimed at this race by Willie Mullins and there is no better jockey than Ruby Walsh, so he will not lack for preparation. PERFECT CANDIDATE is on my shortlist as he stays the trip well, is a front-runner (and sometimes it is tricky to peg back the leaders in this race), and won LTO so comes here in top form. THUNDER AND ROSES is an Irish Grand National winner and is sent here by the trainer of last years winner, "Mouse" Morris. He has been running well without winning all season and can go well here.
My advised wagers are
BLAKLION - £6.00 win @ 14/1
PLEASANT COMPANY - £3.00 eachway @ 16/1
THUNDER AND ROSES - £2.00 eachway @ 33/1
PERFECT CANDIDATE - £2.00 eachway @ 50/1
Most bookies are a minimum of quarter-odds a place to 5-places, but NOT Betfred or Ladbrokes so avoid those two.
Thunder And Roses unseated (while with the leaders) at Valentines Brook on the 1st-circuit. Pleasant Company pulled-up when exhausted about 4-out but had run well until then. Perfect Candidate also became exhausted about 4-out and made a bad error there from which he couldn't recover. Blaklion looked like the winner 3-out as he'd travelled well throughout. He went 4-lengths clear but perhaps hit the front too soon as (when challenged) he had nothing left to give.
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