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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Monday, 23 October 2017
Review of the weekend & Plumpton pointers
I've been gently easing my way into the jumping season, and we've already seen some strong form lines coming through.
On Thursday, trainer Venetia Williams had her first chase winner of the season with Vic De Touzaine at Carlisle and she was unlucky not to have a 2nd on Saturday with Burtons Well who was beaten just a neck by the race-fit and LTO winner Romain De Senam. I can see this race producing a lot of future winners as I've rated the race via 3rd-placed Voix D'Eau who I thought ran to his best (tail flashing on the run in) and he will probably benefit from a drop in trip to under 2m4f. Burtons Well is lightly raced and this ground was probably as quick as he wants but he went down fighting and on soft or heavy NTO he looks one to be on. This was a big step-up by Romain De Senam, but there may not be much improvement left in him as this was the 5yo's 16th run for Paul Nicholls and his 9th chase race.
Paul Nicholls has certainly hit the ground running as he's had 15 winners from his 45 runners in the past 14-days. I was on Friday's winner Orbasa at Wincanton and this talented yet temperamental horse finally put his head in front with probably his best run since he was 2nd at Newton Abbott in April. We you consider that he was only beaten a length when in-receipt of 5lb by Definitly Red at Ayr in April 2016, and that one is now rated 22lb higher, you have to wonder if "finally" the game has clicked into place. Nicholls has followed that win up with another double on Saturday, and then 4 wins at Kempton on Sunday from the 6 horses he sent there - and he had 2 in the same race; so 4 wins from 5 races contested. I took advantage of the early 7/4 about Old Guard in the "Listed" hurdle race over 2-mile as his only real danger was stablemate San Benedeto. However, it was really no contest as San Benedeto was a consistent but ordinary hurdler before he went chasing, and Old Guard had show he was at least 10lb better than him in this sphere - and it was no contest.
On Saturday for me the feature jump race of the day was at Ffos Las, where the 9yo The New One took the Welsh Champion (handicap) Hurdle showing his ability is not dimming with age; he remains a rock-solid 160 hurdler over 2-mile.
Today, we have the first winter meeting of the season at Plumpton, my local jump racing track. This is a tight little left-handed track with a particularly awkward fence at the start of the back straight which is on a downhill slope - it can catch out an over-exuberant jumper. The race I'm looking at here is the 3m 1f handicap hurdle at 4:30pm, mainly as in my opinion stayers hurdle races are one of the safest betting mediums in racing - not many horses truly stay 3-miles. I'm therefore taken by the fav Beneficial Joe who has won 3 times at 2m7f - 3m. Sure, he's not looked like staying much further in 3 completed races beyond 3m 1f but this opposition looks weak. The 2nd-fav Clondaw Bisto needs to prove he stays this far as he's not raced beyond 2m5f. Linguine stays 3-mile but his 7 x 2nd's from 18 races proves he's one-paced at the business end. The 10yo Teak would be interesting if he could recover his from of a few years ago but, LTO, he looked a shadow of his former self. Similarly, the 10yo Invicta Lake could be on my shortlist, but this is his first run since being injured in Feb-16. I really cannot consider any of the others in the race, and BENEFICIAL JOE should merely have to complete to take this race. Curently best-priced at 5/2 (Bet365) and at 4.00 (or 3/1) on Betfair, I can see this one starting at 2/1 or maybe even 7/4.