Have courage in your convictions

"Have the courage of your knowledge and experience.

If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgement is sound, act on it - even though others may hesitate or differ.

You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you.

You are right because your data and reasoning are right."

Benjamin Graham

This statement was written in respect of investment on the stock markets, however it resonates very well with the betting markets too.   Sometimes you have to wait for the best opportunities to come along and sometimes they are so obvious that you "refuse" to see them!  In hindsight, that certainly seemed the case with Blaklion last Saturday as he so dominated the Becher Chase that the returned SP of 7/4 was considered generous by some (for instance, Tom Segal "Pricewise" in the Racing Post).  But you always have to take account before the race the potential effect of luck on the eventual outcome and I don't think that was reflected in the odds.

This weekend's 2-day Cheltenham meeting isn't the best of the season although the 3m1f novice chase on Friday has produced some good horses and will be worth taking an interest in.  I am also looking forward to the 3m2f Class 1 handicap chase on Friday in which race-fav's don't have a great record. With 4 of the last 5 winners aged 9yo or older, experience has counted in the past, and of the only "older" horses in Friday's race Mysteree - who has won on his seasonal debut for the past 4 seasons (didn't run in 2014-15) - looks very interesting. 

Saturday's feature race at Cheltenham looks a tricky event but I'm hoping that STARCHITECT can make-up for  his defeat LTO.  He ran a cracker that day, always in the van and it was only because the winner (Splash Of Ginge) had the run of the race that he didn't succeed.