It's been a tricky week for following the horses, but all came good yesterday at Chepstow. I didn't write a blog as my early thoughts were that the racing looked too tough (and I had a busy morning of meetings at the office that stopped me posting a blog). However, the form worked out well and I ended up having progressively larger wagers on the fav's at Chepstow which all won - yes, every race at Chepstow yesterday was won by the fav. When I read the Racing Post yesterday I could not see anything opposing BECAUSESHESAIDSO in the final race on the card and expected the horse to start at under 2/1 - so the early 6/1 was very welcome and appreciated when the horse eventually won by 14-lengths.
Saturday brings us 3 meetings at Haydock, Ascot and Taunton with soft or very heavy ground at all 3 meetings and as I write there have already been a host of non-runners declared. The Bet365 Chase over 2m5f at Ascot at 3:00pm is an interesting race. The early fav for this 6-runner race is Acting Lass who has won both of his chase starts, and he races off OR143 which means he's giving 4lb to Guitar Pete who we know is a proven chaser who will handle the ground and he looks at his best now with trainer Nicky Richards. Robinshill will likely not stay this trip on this ground, and Kilcrea Vale would be of interest if he could recapture his form of last season but, again. One who could be a big player is Fortunate George who won here at Ascot in November over 2m5f, but made an early error here LTO over 3-mile which essentially took him out of the race. If he jumps well early-on he could be thereabouts as he has no stamina doubts and should handle the ground. Finally, Minella Daddy returns from a 390-day break and we just don't know how fit he will be. At the odds, the 3/1 available on GUITAR PETE looks value to me as I'm surprised he's not the fav for this race.
The meeting at Haydock looks particularly tricky as when it's heavy ground there you know the racing will be tough - and watching the weather forecast on the tv, there cold be snow at Haydock this afternoon! The feature race is the Peter Marsh Handicap Chase over almost 3m2f (at 3:15pm) and the fav is Hainan who won here on heavy ground LTO over 3m4f but only 4 horses finished that race which makes it difficult to rate and I think he has to prove he's up to OR140. Rock The Kasbah has to prove he can handle this ground as he was beaten on similar as a hurdler when odds-on. Tintern Theatre looks an out & out staying chaser and so why didn't he race over 3-mile as a hurdler? Yala Enki will ensure the race is a stamina test but he looks weighted to his best on OR147. Walk In The Mill was beaten fair'n'square LTO so will heavy ground suit him better? It could be worth having a punt on a longshot, and Captain Redbeard won the Tommy Whittle Chase LTO here in December and is up 9lb for that win but he does run this course well and he's 12/1. Knockanrawley could be thereabouts if he's been slow coming to fitness this season, but he had every chance to show his best LTO. For me, it's an eachway wager on CAPTAIN REDBEARD at 12/1 (quarter-odds 1,2,3 with Bet365).
That's my 2 for the day:-
Ascot 3:00 GUITAR PETE - £10 win @ 3/1 (available generally)
Haydock 3:15 CAPTAIN REDBEARD - £5 eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365)
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