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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 16 November 2018

Cheltenham 16th November 2018

A tremendous weekend of jump racing at Cheltenham kicks off today at 12:40pm and although there is another jumps meeting at Newcastle, all eyes will be on Prestbury Park.
For me, the best wager of the day could be in the opening race, a 3m1f Class 3 handicap chase for amateur riders run at 12:40pm, and this is a race I've had success in before. Amateur rider races can be a lucrative betting medium as the skill level varies from near professional (the likes of Mr JJ Cobb) to some who do well to stay in the saddle in the paddock.  If you stick to the very best of the riders then you will find most of the winners of these races.
A few weeks ago, I tipped LOVELY JOB when he ran in a Class 2 handicap chase at Chepstow.  That race was won by The Young Master who he meets here today on 8lb better terms (as jockey Sam Waley-Cohen does not claim his 3lb allowance). When approaching the final fence that day, I honestly thought Lovely Job was about to come and win it, but he quickly ran out of puff on the run-in, and I think that was due to lack of race-fitness. He will be a lot better today thanks to that run, and the jockey who rode last year's winner of this race, the capable Mr R O Harding, takes the ride.   The Young Master is currently 4/1 2nd-fav  and when he won LTO that was his first win since taking the old "Whitbread" on the final day of the jumps season at Sandown in April 2016.  He's run well at Cheltenham off OR150 so he's more than capable of making a bold show off OR135 now he has his mojo back.  Mr JJ Codd rides Station Master, a horse who has only run in one previous chase race – he obviously has potential but at just 5/1 he's far too short in the betting.
The race fav is For Good Measure, and I'm not altogether sure why he is – he's only run in 3 previous chase races and though his rating of OR130 is 7lb lower than his hurdles rating, he barely stayed 3-mile as a hurdler which is not good (in my opinion) for 3-mile chasing.
The 5yo Sky Pirate could be too young for this race, but he ran a cracker LTO when 2nd to a subsequent winner, and he's likely to be on the premises.
Bally Longford usually needs a run but his rating of OR131, even though it's up 5lb for his win LTO in March, is fair as he's run well before off OR136. The remainder of the field don't look up to winning this race.
For me, LOVELY JOB at 8/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power etc) looks great value as I reckon he has as good a chance as The Young Master on 4/1 and there are doubts over the form of Station Master and For Good Measure.  The interesting one is Sky Pirate who could well improve if he's up for it being just 5yo.
Later in the day, the 2-mile Class 2 handicap chase run at 1:50pm could well go to the current 11/4 fav BUN DORAN, as he goes well here and was just beaten over C&D on his seasonal debut last year.  This is a weak race for the grade though, and he's not the strongest horse in the finish (he's not won for nearly 2 years), so he's not one to risk the mortgage on.
The Grand National winner TIGER ROLL runs in the Cross-Country Chase but he has only one target this year, a repeat Grand National win, and I very much doubt he will be anywhere near ready to win this. JOSIES ORDERS has had the benefit of a hurdle race last month and is a very capable Cross-country chaser and should take all the beating.   
We've another great meeting at Cheltenham tomorrow, and I will be writing-up my notes on the feature race this afternoon.
Just the one wager today: LOVELY JOB, £5 each way & £10 win @ 8/1 (available generally)

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