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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 1 December 2018

What a busy day! Saturday 1st December

Today we have one of the busiest, and best days of jump racing, outside of Boxing Day. We have 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor, and some of the best races of the jumps season.  On days like today it pays to pick and choose your targets - don't try and find too many winners!
For the feature race at Newbury, the Ladbrokes Trophy (handicap) Chase at 3:00pm, I assessed the form earlier in the week and tipped THOMAS PATRICK when he was 6/1. There were 23 runners then and there are just 12 now going to post and Thomas Patrick is the 7/2 fav. I think he has a great chance and I'm happy we took the 6/1 earlier this week. The obvious danger is the 2nd-fav Elegant Escape, but his best form appears to be on right-handed tracks. Ms Parfois is an obvious danger if she comes back today in the same form as last season. One who could be a fly in the ointment is American, as he has looked like a top-class chaser at times.
At Newcastle, they hold their premier jumps meeting of the season with the feature race being the "Fighting Fifth" hurdle, a Grade 1 event over 2-miles which has attracted a top-class field worthy of the Champion Hurdle next March. While much of the attention will be focused on Buveur D'Air and Samcro, I am interested in the potential of SUMMERVILLE BOY who never stopped progressing last season and could be a lot better than his OR156 rating.
The "Rehearsal" Chase over 3-miles later in the afternoon looks very competitive having attracted a top-class field of handicappers.  The 7yo Sharp Response could be the answer as his win at Carlisle over 3m2f in October marked him out as a progressive horse and I'm prepared to forgive his last run at Cheltenham.
There's nothing at Doncaster that I can advise having a wager on, as the good ground there - obviously the rain the rest of the country has suffered missed Doncaster - has meant that there are quite a few non-runners and it looks a day for fav's there.
At Bangor, the 3-mile handicap chase at 1:30pm may have some value. The money seems to be going on Wandrin Star, who has been improving with every run, but I'm expecting BORDEAUX BILL to improve on his recent seasonal debut and come on a bundle. Bordeaux Bill showed he was a promising novice chaser in the making when beating Sharp Response (who runs at Newcastle today) last December, and he could be very generous odds in this as it looks a fairly weak race on paper.
Back at Newbury, I will be eagerly watching the racing there and the reappearance of SANTINI who could be a star chaser in the making.

That's it for today, my selections are:
Bangor 1:30pm BORDEAUX BILL,  £10 win @ 4/1 (available generally)
Newbury 3:00pm THOMAS PATRICK - wager placed on Wednesday £10 win @ 6/1

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