This is a big weekend for horseracing.
The late news on Saturday that both of the O'Brien runners - MOGUL and SERPENTINE - had been withdrawn due to contaminated feed, dominated the the market. Personally, I don't think either of them was capable of winning today, but one (or both) could have been in the 1st-3 home. The withdrawals has certainly made the chance of ENABLE (attempting to win the race for the 3rd time) a fair bit easier, but the heavy ground still is the biggest obstacle. Enable should win, but it's not guaranteed, and I think the value is in the improving 3yo colt IN SWOOP who is unexposed but definitely worthy of his place in this field.
At Longchamp in France, we have the culmination of the European flat racing season with the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe run over 12-furlongs - the very best of the European stayers chasing the ultimate prize, with the winner collecting £1,450,000.
There are 6 Group 1 races on the card:
1:15pm Grand Criterium for 2yo's run over 7-furlongs
1:50pm Prix Marcel Boussac for 2yo fillies run over 1 mile
3:05pm Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe run over 12-furlongs
3:50pm Prix De L'Opera for fillies and mares run over 10-furlongs
4:25pm Prix De L'Abbeye run over 5-furlongs
4:55pm Prix De La Floret run over 7-furlongs
The feature race of the day has ENABLE attempting to win the race for the 3rd time, having been successful in 2017 and 2018, but coming 2nd last year. To be fair, the heavy ground will not be in her favour, even though she won this race on soft ground in 2017, as she faltered in the closing stages run on very soft ground last year. As such, I don't expect jockey Dettori to hit the front on her with over 300 yards to run as he has done previously.
Trainer John Gosden also sends champion "Cup" horse Stradivarius, but I think it is too big an ask to expect him to win this race run over a trip at least half-a-mile short of his preferred distance.
Sottsass was 3rd in this race last year, and the previous year's race is usually a good guide, but his form this season does not provide confidence of a repeat.
I do not expect any of the other older horses to threaten the Gosden trained pair, so that discounts Japan, Persian King, Sovereign, Deidre, and Royal Julius.
It's the 3yo's who may give the favourite a race. Chachnak has not won beyond 10-furlongs, and he only just scrapped home LTO, so he will be an unlikely challenger. Gold Trip was last seen coming 3rd in the Grand Prix De Paris behind Mogul (1st) and In Swoop (2nd) and he's not bred to win a race like this. The filly Raabihah is bred to win a race like this, but her 2nd LTO did not inspire confidence and she will have to find about 15lb of improvement to win this race. Derby winner Serpentine possibly needed the run when 4th in the Grand Prix De Paris LTO, and he could be interesting. However, that trainer Aidan O'Brien also sends the winner of the Grand Prix De Paris Mogul for this race, suggests there's not much between the pair. My opinion is that Mogul is the best of the O'Brien pair, and he won't be far away at the finish..
The final 3yo to consider is IN SWOOP who was having only his 4th race when chasing home Mogul LTO. I thought he was given lot to do that day, and I'm hoping jockey Ronan Thomas does not have him too far behind with half-a-mile to run. I will be honest here, I took 50/1 about In Swoop for this race (just a tiny wager, £2.50 ew) before he ran in the Grand Prix De Paris as his breeding suggested he could spring a surprise, and he very nearly did. After he ran 2nd, I had a proper wager at 33/1. Unfortunately, having drawn 1 isn't an advantage, as I expect he will likely be at the rear for the early part of the race, and I just hope his jockey tracks the more experienced riders of Dettori (Enable) and Moore (Mogul) and is perfectly placed about 4 or 5 lengths off the leader with half-a-mile to run.
Of the other races on the card, I would love to see FEV ROVER take the Prix Marcel Boussac, but the fav Pretty Gorgeous looks very strong, although on this heavy ground there could be a few surprise results. Certainly, Tiger Tanaka who won on heavy ground LTO could be worth an interest at 9/1 in that race.
And in the Prix De L'Abbeye it is difficult to look beyond last year's winner GLASS SLIPPERS who looks in-form and a better filly than she was going into the race last year.
Let's hope history is made at Longchamp with ENABLE coming home the winner, but Dettori will need all his skill on this ground with his stablemate Stradivarius sure to make it a thorough test of stamina.
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