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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 2 December 2022

Saturday 3rd December - Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown

Blog updated Saturday morning, comments in blue.
Last week was another Saturday when the selection didn't win but was placed - we've hit the post a number of times this season without scoring. We have another top weekend of racing with the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown, the Becher Chase at Aintree; as well as great support from Chepstow with the Welsh National Trial, and Wetherby putting on a solid meeting with a couple of Class 3 handicaps. And we also have the World Cup, with England playing Senegal on Sunday evening - and that is a game that could go either way, as Senegal are no pushover. 

At Sandown last year, Nicky Henderson introduced the unraced Constitution Hill in the opener, and this year he sends the unraced Immortal – could be worth a watch.  Over the day, the Henderson horses are going to be the ones to watch, with Jonbon in the “Henry VIII” Grade 2 novice chase, and then Shishkin in the Tingle Creek. I’m sure Henderson won’t send Shishkin if he thinks he’s not ready, but it took the great horse Sprinter Sacre a few runs before he returned to his best, and it may be worth opposing him.  

Last season I found the inner of the London National at Sandown, and this years' race looks a real poser. I'm not sure about the fav Revels Hill: he's won at 3m4f but it looked a weak race to me, and I think he still has to prove himself at this sort of trip. However, having him as the 2/1 fav really opens up the betting and provides an opportunity for a long-odds eachway wager: and one that fits the bill is Almazhar Garde. Still only a 7yo, he's had 18 chase runs, winning 4 times, and he's a strong stayer who likes to race prominently. The form that I'm drawn to is when 2nd at Catterick over 3m6f in Jan22 off OR137. There's plenty of 18/1 and 4-places (5th odds) available, and while he may not win this (he lacks pace at the business end) he could be worth a place-only wager on the exchanges. 

At Aintree, the Grade 2 “Many Clouds” Chase over 3m1f looks a tight affair on Official Ratings with only 4lbs separating the highest rated Ahoy Senor (OR161) from the lowest Sounds Russian (OR157). If the weights were level, I’d have no hesitation in opting for Chantry House: a C&D winner more that proven at this level and higher. However, he’s giving 2lb to Grand National winner Noble Yeats (who is no pushover) and 6lb to the improving Sounds Russian who won LTO at Kelso on 22-Oct. The benefit of already having a run swings it for me. The field assembled for the Becher Chase handicap over 3m2f would not disgrace the Grand National; it looks a cracker.
My own ratings are:
Chantry House     155      plus 0lb = 155
Noble Yeats         149 (p) plus 2lb = 151
Sam Brown         159       plus 2lb = 161
Ahoy Senor        155        plus 3lb = 158
Dashel Drasher   159       plus 6lb = 165
Sounds Russian   149 (p) plus 6lb = 155
Will Dashel Drasher stay the 3m1f trip? It is doubtful as all the others are guaranteed to stay the trip and stamina will be tested. Will the ground be soft enough for Sam Brown to show his best?  In the “Charlie Hall”, Ahoy Senor ran a stinker and may bounce-back, or he may not; for me he isn't reliable enough.  Chantry House ticks a lot of boxes, and he's 11/2 with Bet365, Bet Victor and William Hill.  I will be back again in the morning with an update, in the meantime take advantage of what looks great value on Chantry House. 

The Welsh Grand National Trial Chase at Chepstow may only have 11 runners, but it looks a tough handicap to solve. Top-weight with 12st is Secret Investor who was last seen winning the Grade 2 "Denman" Chase at Newbury beating top-class stablemate Clan Des Obeaux in the process.  That was 650 days ago and he will have to be near Gold Cup class to win today. I like Caribean Boy but I think his 287-day absence is also a negative. Elegant Escape has had a recent run, and he's capable of a good run off OR142, he's an eachway chance at 16/1. Secret Reprieve who won this 2 years ago as a 6yo off OR130, and went on to win the Welsh National off OR134, is on a journey of "recovery" (he's only run 3 times since Winning the Welsh Nat in Jan2021) and has a way to go yet.  The race fav is Wayfinder who has won his last 3 races over C&D, but this race is different gravy to what he's been in.  The one that interests me is Southfield Harvest who sneaks into the race with just 10st2lb and a 5lb claimer (so he could have just 9st11lb). I'm thinking Paul Nicholls is running Secret Investor with 12st so that Southfield Harvest has this low weight; and there's plenty of 5/1 about.

Aintree 1:30pm CHANTRY HOUSE - £10 win @ 11/2 (advised on Friday evening)
Chepstow 1:37pm SOUTHFIELD HARVEST - £5 win @ 5/1

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