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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 25 February 2023

Saturday 25th February - Kempton

We have, what could well be, an informative day of racing at Kempton today. The meeting opens with the "Adonis" juvenile hurdle over 2-miles and I will be surprised if the fav, Scriptwriter, is beaten today. He has an official rating of OR132, but I reckon he's more like 140+. The Irish-trained challenger Nusret has not shown he's up to OR130 in my view, while Perseus Way is about right on OR125. It's the recent hurdling debut winners Rare Middleton (Paul Nicholls) and Sarsons Risk who probably pose the danger.

I'm fairly happy with the antepost wagers for Cheltenham; you cannot guarantee winners, but hopefully we will be in with a good shout. If you didn't read last Sunday's blog, take a look below. On 11th February, I advised a £5 eachway wager on Boothill for the Arkle; not because I think he can beat the market leaders Jonbon and El Fabiolo, but at the then 40/1 odds he looked a value punt for the 3rd-placed slot. I'm expecting a small number of runners in the Arkle - probably El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Dysart Dynamo / Final Orders / Boothill / Fil Dor and maybe a couple of others - and today Boothill should be able to cement his place in the race on the day. Boothill runs in the 2:25pm at Kempton, the Pendil Novices Chase over 2m4f, and his jumping ability should carry him to victory in this race today. Datsalrightgino has shown his ability to stay the trip, but his jumping let him down at Cheltenham; if he's improved that then he's in with a shout.

The 3rd race on the Kempton card is the 3-mile Coral Trophy (h'cap) Chase, which is a long-standing race on the calendar. If Annsam is in the same mood as when he won LTO over C&D 42-days ago, he will take a lot of beating.  It will take a career-best from Cap Du Nord to win this off OR132, but he's running exceptionally well.  There's another improving 8yo that runs prominently, stays the trip well and looks well handicapped, and that's Bobehopenohope at 20/1 (generally available) and with 4-places he looks an eachway steal. 

While I think there's a tiny bit of value in the Scriptwriter odds as there's 7/4 available in places, and I think he's more of an "evens" chance, there's not so much in the Boothill odds of 2/1 as Datsalrightgino isn't that far away from him in ability, and this trip is an unknown for Boothill.   So, if you are happy playing fav's, I would not put you off having a wager on SCRIPTWRITER.

My only personal wager today is £5 eachway on BOBHOPENOHOPE @ 20/1 which is generally available, with there being 4-places paid at 5th odds. 

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