In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Weekly review
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Great start to the day with TWICE OVER taking the race by the scruff of the neck and running out a solid winner at an SP of 13/8. As expected (see yesterday’s blog) there was a huge amount of money on him through the day, having opened at 9/4 in the morning. That was the high-spot. I was disappointed with both the other selections. I did highlight that Saeed Bin Suroor only had 2 runners out on the day, both at Haydock. Unfortunately, I put the wrong one on the blog as the selection; though I did fancy the other ANHAR who won at 10/1. His other runner, GLOBAL CITY, clearly needed the run as he was holding every chance inside the 2f pole till fading. As for I’M SUPER TOO, this run is best ignored. He looked very uncomfortable on this tight right-handed track and although he’s won going right-handed, in my opinion his best runs have been going left-handed at Chester and Redcar. Overall, we finished even on the day.
Weekly review
Not a bad week, 2pts lost on Wednesday, 2.80pts won on Friday and no loss on Saturday meant the blog was in profit 0.8pts on the week. One that I missed yesterday was VIRGINIA HALL who won at the very generous odds of 11/2 considering her official rating of OR105 was only a 1lb less than that of the 13/8 fav and this was the only stable ride for Sen Sanders from his guvnor Sir Mark Prescott. I keep saying it, and will no doubt do it again, you have to keep a focus on what the trainers in form are doing – it’s the only angle that the punter has.
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Sunday, 4 July 2010
Saturday, 3 July 2010
Eclipse - Twice Over?
In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
What a great couple of selections and we almost had a cracking 20pt+ win double! PRINCE SEIGFREID went to the front 2-furlongs out with the intent of blunting the speed of only danger Stotsfold, but despite battling all the way to the line and only losing the lead inside the final 100 yards, he went down by half-a-length.
But our FAVOURITE GIRL made up for that leading all the way to the line to hold on by just a head and win. Subject of some considerable market support, she was the 5/2 fav having been advised on the blog when at 4/1. So, overall a 2.80pts profit on the day from 4pts staked.
Today’s Racing Selections
There is some tremendous racing today and the Eclipse at Sandown can go to the fav TWICE OVER. He was the blog selection at Royal Ascot and but for being held back at the start of his run he may well have won. He is the only 10f, Group 1 horse in the race and current odds of 2/1 look fair. He was 9/4 earlier this morning and could well start the 7/4 fav. Only worry is the lack of pace in the race but TWICE OVER has the best turn-of-foot here. The rest of the Sandown card is absolute top-class and very competitive.
There may be some easier pickings about today with all the quality racing and, at Beverley, Sir Michael Stoute sends just Cabal for the 4:25. However, the form of his win LTO has not held up and I’m more taken by Swinbank’s I’M SUPER TOO who seems to have got the hang of racing now and today’s going and trip will suit. Also, he’s from a decent family and he could have a fair bit more improvement to come. Currently 9/2 (with William Hill) he looks good value as Cabal is not an 11/8 chance.
Finally, Saeed Bin Suroor sends out just 2 runners today, both at Haydock. On the face of it, both have little chance of winning. However, I think they both will run decent races. I’m going for GLOBAL CITY who won at Haydock on good-to-firm over this 6f trip last June. This race has cut up today with the going getting quicker by the hour which will suit GLOBAL CITY and not the fav Genki. Currently 9/1 (with Stan James) he looks tremendous value.
Selections:
Sandown 3:10 TWICE OVER, 2pts win @ 2/1
Beverley 4:25 I’M SUPER TOO, 1pt each-way @ 9/2
Haydock 4:35 GLOBAL CITY, 1pt each-way @ 9/1
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
What a great couple of selections and we almost had a cracking 20pt+ win double! PRINCE SEIGFREID went to the front 2-furlongs out with the intent of blunting the speed of only danger Stotsfold, but despite battling all the way to the line and only losing the lead inside the final 100 yards, he went down by half-a-length.
But our FAVOURITE GIRL made up for that leading all the way to the line to hold on by just a head and win. Subject of some considerable market support, she was the 5/2 fav having been advised on the blog when at 4/1. So, overall a 2.80pts profit on the day from 4pts staked.
Today’s Racing Selections
There is some tremendous racing today and the Eclipse at Sandown can go to the fav TWICE OVER. He was the blog selection at Royal Ascot and but for being held back at the start of his run he may well have won. He is the only 10f, Group 1 horse in the race and current odds of 2/1 look fair. He was 9/4 earlier this morning and could well start the 7/4 fav. Only worry is the lack of pace in the race but TWICE OVER has the best turn-of-foot here. The rest of the Sandown card is absolute top-class and very competitive.
There may be some easier pickings about today with all the quality racing and, at Beverley, Sir Michael Stoute sends just Cabal for the 4:25. However, the form of his win LTO has not held up and I’m more taken by Swinbank’s I’M SUPER TOO who seems to have got the hang of racing now and today’s going and trip will suit. Also, he’s from a decent family and he could have a fair bit more improvement to come. Currently 9/2 (with William Hill) he looks good value as Cabal is not an 11/8 chance.
Finally, Saeed Bin Suroor sends out just 2 runners today, both at Haydock. On the face of it, both have little chance of winning. However, I think they both will run decent races. I’m going for GLOBAL CITY who won at Haydock on good-to-firm over this 6f trip last June. This race has cut up today with the going getting quicker by the hour which will suit GLOBAL CITY and not the fav Genki. Currently 9/1 (with Stan James) he looks tremendous value.
Selections:
Sandown 3:10 TWICE OVER, 2pts win @ 2/1
Beverley 4:25 I’M SUPER TOO, 1pt each-way @ 9/2
Haydock 4:35 GLOBAL CITY, 1pt each-way @ 9/1
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Friday, 2 July 2010
Friday double
In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Despite there being a lot of racing about, I didn’t put a selection up yesterday and that’s just as well as the couple that I was considering both came 2nd. Half the success in making a profit in this game is avoiding the losers. Better to wager on a winner at 2/1 than a gallant loser at 8/1.
Part of the effort in finding those winners is watching racing and reviewing why a horse won a particular race. I pay a lot of attention to trainer statistics basically on the premise that they are human and, like most humans, are habitual in their habits. For instance, yesterday I noted on the blog that Gordon Elliot – the Irish trainer – has a “love affair” with Perth in Scotland, and had sent 3 winners out from 6 runners on Wednesday. Well yesterday, he sent out another 3 winners at odds, of 5/2, 9/1 and 6/4 but he did that from only 5 runners on the day. It would have been well worth having a bet on each of his runners at Perth irrespective of their chance in the formbook. In the past 5 years, Elliot has sent 159 runners to Perth and had 47 winners, that’s a 30% strike rate.
Today’s Racing Selections
Friday is the start of the racing weekend and there is some great racing today with afternoon meetings at Doncaster, Sandown and Warwick.
Back on 29th April, I wrote about FAVOURITE GIRL. When a 2yo, she was 2nd (btn a head) in a Listed race over 6f trip and was rated OR104 on that run. She struggled as a 3yo off that rating and on 29th April was running off OR78. It looks like she needed to regain race-fitness as she dropped a couple more pounds to OR74 off which she won. LTO, she won for the 2nd time in her last 3 races, this time off OR78. I reckon she’s capable of running well up to OR90 and she’s out again at Doncaster in the 5:15 running off OR84. It is only 5-furlongs today, and she’d prefer 6-furlongs, but some of these are well off-form and would also prefer the longer trip. Currently at 4/1, she looks terrific value given that she’s bang in-form and has the potential to keep on improving.
Despite all eye’s being on the Men’s semi-finals at Wimbledon, there is a great card at Sandown today and the Listed race at 4:00 looks very competitive on paper. However, I think the one to have on your side is Saeed Bin Suroor’s PRINCE SIEGFRIED. Likely favourite, Confront, is much better at a mile, and Stotsfold is very consistent and will be finishing with a rattle; but the 6lb he gives to PRINCE SEIGFRIED is probably too much given that the selection will come on for his recent run and Suroor has his stable in much better form now. Current odds of 100/30 look value.
Selections:
Sandown 4:00 PRINCE SIEGFIRED, 2pts win @ 100/30
Doncaster 5:15 FAVOURITE GIRL, 1pt each-way @ 4/1
The meeting at Haydock tonight has some decent races, and hopefully I’ll come back bit later on with something useful.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday evening racing
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Despite there being a lot of racing about, I didn’t put a selection up yesterday and that’s just as well as the couple that I was considering both came 2nd. Half the success in making a profit in this game is avoiding the losers. Better to wager on a winner at 2/1 than a gallant loser at 8/1.
Part of the effort in finding those winners is watching racing and reviewing why a horse won a particular race. I pay a lot of attention to trainer statistics basically on the premise that they are human and, like most humans, are habitual in their habits. For instance, yesterday I noted on the blog that Gordon Elliot – the Irish trainer – has a “love affair” with Perth in Scotland, and had sent 3 winners out from 6 runners on Wednesday. Well yesterday, he sent out another 3 winners at odds, of 5/2, 9/1 and 6/4 but he did that from only 5 runners on the day. It would have been well worth having a bet on each of his runners at Perth irrespective of their chance in the formbook. In the past 5 years, Elliot has sent 159 runners to Perth and had 47 winners, that’s a 30% strike rate.
Today’s Racing Selections
Friday is the start of the racing weekend and there is some great racing today with afternoon meetings at Doncaster, Sandown and Warwick.
Back on 29th April, I wrote about FAVOURITE GIRL. When a 2yo, she was 2nd (btn a head) in a Listed race over 6f trip and was rated OR104 on that run. She struggled as a 3yo off that rating and on 29th April was running off OR78. It looks like she needed to regain race-fitness as she dropped a couple more pounds to OR74 off which she won. LTO, she won for the 2nd time in her last 3 races, this time off OR78. I reckon she’s capable of running well up to OR90 and she’s out again at Doncaster in the 5:15 running off OR84. It is only 5-furlongs today, and she’d prefer 6-furlongs, but some of these are well off-form and would also prefer the longer trip. Currently at 4/1, she looks terrific value given that she’s bang in-form and has the potential to keep on improving.
Despite all eye’s being on the Men’s semi-finals at Wimbledon, there is a great card at Sandown today and the Listed race at 4:00 looks very competitive on paper. However, I think the one to have on your side is Saeed Bin Suroor’s PRINCE SIEGFRIED. Likely favourite, Confront, is much better at a mile, and Stotsfold is very consistent and will be finishing with a rattle; but the 6lb he gives to PRINCE SEIGFRIED is probably too much given that the selection will come on for his recent run and Suroor has his stable in much better form now. Current odds of 100/30 look value.
Selections:
Sandown 4:00 PRINCE SIEGFIRED, 2pts win @ 100/30
Doncaster 5:15 FAVOURITE GIRL, 1pt each-way @ 4/1
The meeting at Haydock tonight has some decent races, and hopefully I’ll come back bit later on with something useful.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Thursday evening racing
Thursday, 1 July 2010
Back this evening?
In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
If nothing else, I was right about needing to have a front-runner over Catterick’s 7f trip, as yesterday’s race over C&D was won by Nufoudh who made all to win. Out of stall 2, Nufooudh broke quick and grabbed the rail, which is where I wanted the blog selection GLENRIDDING to be. The subject of considerable market support from 5/1 in to 3/1, GLENRIDDING basically threw-in the towel with about 2f to go when he realised he could not dominate the race. Based on previous meetings, I reckon GLENRIDDING is about 4lb better (at least) than Nufoudh, so in only giving him a 1lb yesterday he should have won – but it was all about grabbing the lead and the rail in the first 100 yards of the race.
Other news included Henry Cecil ending a 2-week barren spell with a 16/1 winner at Kempton on the AW. Mick Jarvis sent out only one runner, Jaaryah to Kempton and it won at 5/1; that gives him 4 winners from 8 runners in the past 5-days. Trainer, Gordon Elliot’s love affair with Perth continues unabated and he sent out 3 winners there yesterday from 6 runners (he did have 2 in the same race, 1 of which won) with 2 of the others placed.
Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from today, with a good meeting at Haydock this afternoon. There’s another at Yarmouth, and evening meetings at Epsom, Newbury and Redcar.
The meeting at Haydock has some decent races, but I’m going to take a long look at the evening meetings and hopefully come back bit later on with something useful.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
If nothing else, I was right about needing to have a front-runner over Catterick’s 7f trip, as yesterday’s race over C&D was won by Nufoudh who made all to win. Out of stall 2, Nufooudh broke quick and grabbed the rail, which is where I wanted the blog selection GLENRIDDING to be. The subject of considerable market support from 5/1 in to 3/1, GLENRIDDING basically threw-in the towel with about 2f to go when he realised he could not dominate the race. Based on previous meetings, I reckon GLENRIDDING is about 4lb better (at least) than Nufoudh, so in only giving him a 1lb yesterday he should have won – but it was all about grabbing the lead and the rail in the first 100 yards of the race.
Other news included Henry Cecil ending a 2-week barren spell with a 16/1 winner at Kempton on the AW. Mick Jarvis sent out only one runner, Jaaryah to Kempton and it won at 5/1; that gives him 4 winners from 8 runners in the past 5-days. Trainer, Gordon Elliot’s love affair with Perth continues unabated and he sent out 3 winners there yesterday from 6 runners (he did have 2 in the same race, 1 of which won) with 2 of the others placed.
Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from today, with a good meeting at Haydock this afternoon. There’s another at Yarmouth, and evening meetings at Epsom, Newbury and Redcar.
The meeting at Haydock has some decent races, but I’m going to take a long look at the evening meetings and hopefully come back bit later on with something useful.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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