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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 2 July 2010

Friday double

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Despite there being a lot of racing about, I didn’t put a selection up yesterday and that’s just as well as the couple that I was considering both came 2nd. Half the success in making a profit in this game is avoiding the losers. Better to wager on a winner at 2/1 than a gallant loser at 8/1.

Part of the effort in finding those winners is watching racing and reviewing why a horse won a particular race. I pay a lot of attention to trainer statistics basically on the premise that they are human and, like most humans, are habitual in their habits. For instance, yesterday I noted on the blog that Gordon Elliot – the Irish trainer – has a “love affair” with Perth in Scotland, and had sent 3 winners out from 6 runners on Wednesday. Well yesterday, he sent out another 3 winners at odds, of 5/2, 9/1 and 6/4 but he did that from only 5 runners on the day. It would have been well worth having a bet on each of his runners at Perth irrespective of their chance in the formbook. In the past 5 years, Elliot has sent 159 runners to Perth and had 47 winners, that’s a 30% strike rate.

Today’s Racing Selections
Friday is the start of the racing weekend and there is some great racing today with afternoon meetings at Doncaster, Sandown and Warwick.

Back on 29th April, I wrote about FAVOURITE GIRL. When a 2yo, she was 2nd (btn a head) in a Listed race over 6f trip and was rated OR104 on that run. She struggled as a 3yo off that rating and on 29th April was running off OR78. It looks like she needed to regain race-fitness as she dropped a couple more pounds to OR74 off which she won. LTO, she won for the 2nd time in her last 3 races, this time off OR78. I reckon she’s capable of running well up to OR90 and she’s out again at Doncaster in the 5:15 running off OR84. It is only 5-furlongs today, and she’d prefer 6-furlongs, but some of these are well off-form and would also prefer the longer trip. Currently at 4/1, she looks terrific value given that she’s bang in-form and has the potential to keep on improving.

Despite all eye’s being on the Men’s semi-finals at Wimbledon, there is a great card at Sandown today and the Listed race at 4:00 looks very competitive on paper. However, I think the one to have on your side is Saeed Bin Suroor’s PRINCE SIEGFRIED. Likely favourite, Confront, is much better at a mile, and Stotsfold is very consistent and will be finishing with a rattle; but the 6lb he gives to PRINCE SEIGFRIED is probably too much given that the selection will come on for his recent run and Suroor has his stable in much better form now. Current odds of 100/30 look value.

Sandown 4:00 PRINCE SIEGFIRED, 2pts win @ 100/30
Doncaster 5:15 FAVOURITE GIRL, 1pt each-way @ 4/1

The meeting at Haydock tonight has some decent races, and hopefully I’ll come back bit later on with something useful.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday evening racing

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