In today’s blog:-
Today’s horseracing
There were no selections on the blog yesterday.
The big news was that Paul Hanagan won a couple at Southwell, and that just about sealed-it for the jockeys championship. I expect that as I write this, Richard Hughes is already jetting over to the USA for the Breeders Cup series this weekend.
That means the blog is now only 3.90pts down for November.
Today’s horseracing
It’s a proper day’s jump racing this Saturday with 3 meetings at Wincanton, Sandown and Kelso. However, for many the main focus will be on Down Royal where Kauto Star makes his seasonal reappearance. My main focus at that meeting tho’ is on the next race and the return of unbeaten chaser PANDORAMA. He was last seen beating subsequent RSA chase winner Weapons Amnesty, and I reckon this horse could go right to the top of chasing’s tree. The Irish had 3 of the best novice chasers last season in Pandorama, the ill-fated Citizen Vic, and Weapons Amnesty; and the latter was probably the weakest of them and he was still better than anything we had this side of the Irish Sea. As such, I reckon PANDORAMA is a lot better than Paul Nicholls horse The Nightingale, and it may be Osana who gives the selection most to do. Odds of 11/4 PANDORAMA look very interesting.
At Wincanton, we have the Elite Hurdle and this will answer a lot of questions about the potential of Champion Hurdle challenger Australia Day. If he is the real deal, then he’ll win this. Also at Wincanton, there is the Badger Ales Trophy (h’cap) over 3m 1f & 110 yards. This is a great race for finding future winners as it is always a true test of a staying chaser. The Package was 3rd in this last year, but he never really went on improving and on OR147 (was on OR129 last year) he could be weighted out of it. Paul Nicholls Meanus Dandy looked in the handicapper’s grip LTO and off a 2lb lower mark in a race Nicholls always targets, he will be better prepared this time. But he will need to be to hold off I’MONCLOUDNINE. This one ran a career-best LTO and has yet to stop improving. A course winner, the trip and going are right for him, and he has the jump-jockey of the moment riding – Dougie Costello. Previous blog selection OUZBECK will relish the stamina test, but he may not be able to peg them back as he’s a back-marker early-on in his races. Forest Pennant is another interesting runner from Paul Nicholls, but I fear he’s another on too high a rating. Believe it or not, but when I wrote this on Friday evening I’MONCLOUDNINE was 12/1. This morning he’s 7/1 and the value has gone. As such, I’m not recommending a wager on this race, tho’ Forest Pennant at 18’s with Vic Chandler is tempting as an eachway punt as you know the horse will be fit.
There’s nothing tempting at Kelso, but there will be some interesting racing there.
At Sandown, in the class 3 chase over 20f at 2:20, I was going to recommend DOUBLE DIZZY who was 2nd in this race last season, as he will have come on for his recent run and has clearly been aimed at this. But, at just 3/1 (due to the withdrawal of Qianshan Leader) there is no value in his odds.
Selection:
Down Royal 3:00 PANDORAMA, 2pts win @ 11/4 (Ladbrokes & Will Hills)
And yet another plug for a blog that is in the winners this week: Sprinterstogo (“The Laird”) gave his 4th successive winner of the week in NOBLE STORM @ 8/15 following winners at odds of 100/30, 8/1 and 5/1.
If anyone has a blog they know of that is paying dividends, then give it a plug and spread the word (and the wealth).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 6 November 2010
Friday, 5 November 2010
In the winners yesterday, but "Nap" was 2nd
In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
From the blog yesterday, I looked at 4 races and named 6 horses worth an interest (there were 3 in the same race at Towcester). Of those 6 named horses on the blog, I found 2 winners and a 2nd, with the other 3 running unplaced. As luck would have it, my blog “nap” selection was the horse that came 2nd GIFTED LEADER (advised @ 6/1). I did give the horse as an eachway selection, so not all was lost. I was also right about Laredo Sound in that race; not only was the trip half-a-mile too short, but the horse not fit enough to do himself justice – unplaced at 11/2.
The downside to yesterday was that I “missed” both the winners that I mentioned; BORN AGAIN @ 100/30 and AZTEC TREASURE @ 9/2. The latter improved Jonjo O’Neill’s stats at Towcester for chasers to 21 wins from 61 runners – remarkable.
That means the blog is now only 3.90pts down for November.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Fontwell and Hexham today.
There is nothing on the card at Fontwell that takes my eye, and the heavy going at Hexham suggests that is a meeting to avoid.
So then, no fireworks today – except real one’s if the rain holds-off this evening.
There is some great jump racing this weekend, with KAUTO STAR running at Down Royal in Ireland on Saturday. At Wincanton, we have the Elite Hurdle, and also the Badger Ales Trophy for which Paul Nicholls MEANUS DANDY looks thrown-in on just 10st 2lb. There are also good meetings at Kelso and Sandown to get stuck into.
And another plug for a blog that is in the winners this week: Sprinterstogo (see adjacent link) gave ANNE OF KIEV @ 100/30, which followed other winners this week in SUTTON VENY @ 8/1 and PISCEAN @ 5/1 – and those were his last 3 selections! What’s he on today, I wonder?
If anyone has a blog they know of that is paying dividends, then give it a plug and spread the word (and the wealth).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
From the blog yesterday, I looked at 4 races and named 6 horses worth an interest (there were 3 in the same race at Towcester). Of those 6 named horses on the blog, I found 2 winners and a 2nd, with the other 3 running unplaced. As luck would have it, my blog “nap” selection was the horse that came 2nd GIFTED LEADER (advised @ 6/1). I did give the horse as an eachway selection, so not all was lost. I was also right about Laredo Sound in that race; not only was the trip half-a-mile too short, but the horse not fit enough to do himself justice – unplaced at 11/2.
The downside to yesterday was that I “missed” both the winners that I mentioned; BORN AGAIN @ 100/30 and AZTEC TREASURE @ 9/2. The latter improved Jonjo O’Neill’s stats at Towcester for chasers to 21 wins from 61 runners – remarkable.
That means the blog is now only 3.90pts down for November.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Fontwell and Hexham today.
There is nothing on the card at Fontwell that takes my eye, and the heavy going at Hexham suggests that is a meeting to avoid.
So then, no fireworks today – except real one’s if the rain holds-off this evening.
There is some great jump racing this weekend, with KAUTO STAR running at Down Royal in Ireland on Saturday. At Wincanton, we have the Elite Hurdle, and also the Badger Ales Trophy for which Paul Nicholls MEANUS DANDY looks thrown-in on just 10st 2lb. There are also good meetings at Kelso and Sandown to get stuck into.
And another plug for a blog that is in the winners this week: Sprinterstogo (see adjacent link) gave ANNE OF KIEV @ 100/30, which followed other winners this week in SUTTON VENY @ 8/1 and PISCEAN @ 5/1 – and those were his last 3 selections! What’s he on today, I wonder?
If anyone has a blog they know of that is paying dividends, then give it a plug and spread the word (and the wealth).
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Gifted Leader to recoup
In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
The master horseman Nigel Twiston-Davies (NTD) continued his terrific form yesterday, producing Major Malarkey to win off a 573-day break at Chepstow from a field of race-fit rivals. It reminded me of the win by Jump Jet about this time last year who he produced to win by 17-lengths off a 532-day break (beating the progressive Sound Stage), but he was unable to conjure up a similar performance from the horse in 6 subsequent races. The blog selection JUSTABOUT was unable to cope with the soft going (changed from good-to-soft due to sustained rain for over an hour before the race). In the circumstances (I couldn’t predict the going change when I wrote the blog in the morning) as JUSTABOUT has never shown any form in 4 runs on soft going, I am going to give the horse one last chance – but only on good going and over less than 3-mile.
That means the blog is now 4pts down for November.
The other horses mentioned on the blog did no better than the selection, tho’ PAVILLON BLEU was trying a trip that looked beyond his proven stamina and he was a gallant 2nd. SHADOW DANCER never got a look-in (I would expect the 5yo to revert to hurdles soon), but I was right that the fav Dan Breen wasn’t an “evens” chance – he actually started odds-on at 4/5 – and he finished 2nd.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Haydock and Towcester today.
Heavy rain forecast at Haydock and, with the ground already good-to-soft in places, it may be best to wait until closer to the race-times before making your selections there today. The 3-mile h’cap chase could turn into a real slog and you will need one that stays this trip and can handle rain-sodden going. Several are in with chances; DARK BEN who comes to hand early and won on his seasonal debut last November, is one. Ernst Blofeld and Maktu are both in with real chances on the formbook and I expect Jason Maguire will be looking for a winning return on Ernst Blofeld. But I think the weight they are both giving to DARK BEN may tell today.
GIFTED LEADER should have won more than one hurdle race last season. He’s on a fair mark of OR122 and should be fit for his trip to Aintree last week. Today’s 2-mile will suit, as will rain when it comes. Throw-in the talented Dougie Costello and we have the makings of a wager.
BORN AGAIN was a horse I noted last season who never seemed to stop improving. He was going well in his Festival race till a mistake put paid to his chances, and now he’s novice chasing. I’m hoping he’ll have learnt a lot from his debut run to make an impression here.
The finishing hill at Towcester is the graveyard of punters hopes. Many a leader at the final fence has been caught on the run-in, so ability to stay the trip (and more) is to be held at a premium. Jonjo O’Neill has a tremendous strike-rate in chases here (20 wins from 59 runners, or 34%) and he has two chasers running today; AZTEC TREASURE and FOXESBOW, both in the 3-mile chase at 2:20. I’ve never thought Foxesbow stayed 3-mile, but Aztec Treasure looks harshly-treated on OR92 as well. Looking thru’ this field, there are some dodgy characters and my eye is caught by SIR PETER. He’s not won a chase in 6 attempts, but he’s been held-back by his debut chase run when 3rd after which he was rated OR108. Now down to OR95 he looks fairly treated, and we know he stays 3-mile on soft/heavy as he beat Quattrocento at Exeter over hurdles in March-08. He appears to be a solid enough jumper who could grind out a win today. The only downside are the odds; just 5/1 (with Ladbrokes) and I would want more than 7’s for this race at least.
When you are having a poor run of wagers you can either rein-in the stakes, or double-up selections in a race, or just take a back-seat. Of the races and horse I’ve looked at, GIFTED LEADER has for me the most potential and looks the most fairly treated and today may be the day to catch him. At 6/1 he looks a fair proposition, but with money coming for Laredo Sound (who I think will want another half-mile to show his best form) you may get 7’s or more.
Selection:
Haydock 2:40 GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 (various, best odds guaranteed)
Current monthly points total = (-4.00pts)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
The master horseman Nigel Twiston-Davies (NTD) continued his terrific form yesterday, producing Major Malarkey to win off a 573-day break at Chepstow from a field of race-fit rivals. It reminded me of the win by Jump Jet about this time last year who he produced to win by 17-lengths off a 532-day break (beating the progressive Sound Stage), but he was unable to conjure up a similar performance from the horse in 6 subsequent races. The blog selection JUSTABOUT was unable to cope with the soft going (changed from good-to-soft due to sustained rain for over an hour before the race). In the circumstances (I couldn’t predict the going change when I wrote the blog in the morning) as JUSTABOUT has never shown any form in 4 runs on soft going, I am going to give the horse one last chance – but only on good going and over less than 3-mile.
That means the blog is now 4pts down for November.
The other horses mentioned on the blog did no better than the selection, tho’ PAVILLON BLEU was trying a trip that looked beyond his proven stamina and he was a gallant 2nd. SHADOW DANCER never got a look-in (I would expect the 5yo to revert to hurdles soon), but I was right that the fav Dan Breen wasn’t an “evens” chance – he actually started odds-on at 4/5 – and he finished 2nd.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Haydock and Towcester today.
Heavy rain forecast at Haydock and, with the ground already good-to-soft in places, it may be best to wait until closer to the race-times before making your selections there today. The 3-mile h’cap chase could turn into a real slog and you will need one that stays this trip and can handle rain-sodden going. Several are in with chances; DARK BEN who comes to hand early and won on his seasonal debut last November, is one. Ernst Blofeld and Maktu are both in with real chances on the formbook and I expect Jason Maguire will be looking for a winning return on Ernst Blofeld. But I think the weight they are both giving to DARK BEN may tell today.
GIFTED LEADER should have won more than one hurdle race last season. He’s on a fair mark of OR122 and should be fit for his trip to Aintree last week. Today’s 2-mile will suit, as will rain when it comes. Throw-in the talented Dougie Costello and we have the makings of a wager.
BORN AGAIN was a horse I noted last season who never seemed to stop improving. He was going well in his Festival race till a mistake put paid to his chances, and now he’s novice chasing. I’m hoping he’ll have learnt a lot from his debut run to make an impression here.
The finishing hill at Towcester is the graveyard of punters hopes. Many a leader at the final fence has been caught on the run-in, so ability to stay the trip (and more) is to be held at a premium. Jonjo O’Neill has a tremendous strike-rate in chases here (20 wins from 59 runners, or 34%) and he has two chasers running today; AZTEC TREASURE and FOXESBOW, both in the 3-mile chase at 2:20. I’ve never thought Foxesbow stayed 3-mile, but Aztec Treasure looks harshly-treated on OR92 as well. Looking thru’ this field, there are some dodgy characters and my eye is caught by SIR PETER. He’s not won a chase in 6 attempts, but he’s been held-back by his debut chase run when 3rd after which he was rated OR108. Now down to OR95 he looks fairly treated, and we know he stays 3-mile on soft/heavy as he beat Quattrocento at Exeter over hurdles in March-08. He appears to be a solid enough jumper who could grind out a win today. The only downside are the odds; just 5/1 (with Ladbrokes) and I would want more than 7’s for this race at least.
When you are having a poor run of wagers you can either rein-in the stakes, or double-up selections in a race, or just take a back-seat. Of the races and horse I’ve looked at, GIFTED LEADER has for me the most potential and looks the most fairly treated and today may be the day to catch him. At 6/1 he looks a fair proposition, but with money coming for Laredo Sound (who I think will want another half-mile to show his best form) you may get 7’s or more.
Selection:
Haydock 2:40 GIFTED LEADER, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 (various, best odds guaranteed)
Current monthly points total = (-4.00pts)
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Wednesday, 3 November 2010
Vamizi 2nd - another near miss!
In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
Paul Nicholls had 1st & 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup with Tchico Polos and a rejuvenated Twist Magic. Somersby plugged-on to be 3rd having looked capable of winning on approaching the 2nd-last, but when he landed after that his effort quickly petered out. Prior to that he looked very strong and this run should bring him right up to race fitness NTO. Twist Magic hit a couple of fences hard (as he is apt to do as he’s never been the cleanest jumper of a fence) and with a cleaner round he could well have won. As for Chaninbar, ignore this run as he was left at the start and was 25-lengths adrift as the leaders jumped the 2nd fence; he had no chance at all – and let’s hope the starter got a good rollicking from connections of Chaninbar.
It was yet another 2nd for the blog selection when VAMIZI failed to hold-off the winner Iconoclast, and went down by ¾ of a length. He drifted to 9/2 before the off (which I took advantage of) and hit 1.40 in-running when he grabbed the lead on landing after the final fence. But he’d been making the pace thru’out the race and the effort told on what looked very soft going. Iconoclast had previously won on soft going over the 3-mile trip last January at Kempton beating some consistent handicappers. Then NTO - despite being 2nd-fav - he jumped poorly and was pulled-up. His last run was a fair effort in hindsight, and his rating today of OR121 looks lenient now. I would expect both these horses to come on for this run, and they both finished well clear of the 3rd (Son Histoire, who also ran a fair race) and can be expected to run well NTO. Unfortunately, that means the blog is now 3pts down for November, and it’s only the 3rd of the month!
The other horse mentioned on the blog, COURT IN MOTION, won his race in a canter @ 4/6.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Chepstow and Warwick today.
At Chepstow, previous blog selection JUSTABOUT runs again. LTO he looked like being involved in the finish till a mistake at the 2nd-last put paid to his chances. It’s 3-mile today and I did think a drop to 22f would suit him better, but trainer Charlie Tizzard must reckon he stays this trip as he’s entered for a 3m2f chase next Monday. We know the horse is fit, and can jump and is capable of winning off his mark of OR95. Current odds of 9/2 look fair as joint-fav Mister Wiseman has to prove his stamina at this trip, 3rd fav Dunkelly Castle looks weighted out of this, and it’s a big ask of Major Malarky to win off a 573-day break.
Phil Hobbs sent subsequent Welsh National winner Dream Alliance for the 3-mile hurdle last year, and perhaps he has similar intentions for PAVILLON BLEU. He does have stamina to prove tho’ and I may be tempted on a long-odds wager on Two Miles West who has won twice at this trip and can run a decent race if his mind is on it.
At Warwick, I made a note of SHADOW DANCER last season, and he did well on his novice chase debut last month to suggest he may prove hard to beat today. The short-priced fav is Dan Breen and if he takes to jumps today he should win (based on hurdles form) but the jumps game is not as straight-forward as that and 7/1 SHADOW DANCER and “evens” Dan Breen is not truly representive of their chances today – I’d have it 7/2 and 9/4 respectively.
Selection:
Chepstow 2:45 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 9/2 (various)
Current monthly points total = (-3.00pts)
Lastly, a plug for another blog I follow "Sprinterstogo" (see adjacent link) who hit the target with an 8/1 winner yesterday with resident tipster The Laird's only selection. Well done!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
Paul Nicholls had 1st & 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup with Tchico Polos and a rejuvenated Twist Magic. Somersby plugged-on to be 3rd having looked capable of winning on approaching the 2nd-last, but when he landed after that his effort quickly petered out. Prior to that he looked very strong and this run should bring him right up to race fitness NTO. Twist Magic hit a couple of fences hard (as he is apt to do as he’s never been the cleanest jumper of a fence) and with a cleaner round he could well have won. As for Chaninbar, ignore this run as he was left at the start and was 25-lengths adrift as the leaders jumped the 2nd fence; he had no chance at all – and let’s hope the starter got a good rollicking from connections of Chaninbar.
It was yet another 2nd for the blog selection when VAMIZI failed to hold-off the winner Iconoclast, and went down by ¾ of a length. He drifted to 9/2 before the off (which I took advantage of) and hit 1.40 in-running when he grabbed the lead on landing after the final fence. But he’d been making the pace thru’out the race and the effort told on what looked very soft going. Iconoclast had previously won on soft going over the 3-mile trip last January at Kempton beating some consistent handicappers. Then NTO - despite being 2nd-fav - he jumped poorly and was pulled-up. His last run was a fair effort in hindsight, and his rating today of OR121 looks lenient now. I would expect both these horses to come on for this run, and they both finished well clear of the 3rd (Son Histoire, who also ran a fair race) and can be expected to run well NTO. Unfortunately, that means the blog is now 3pts down for November, and it’s only the 3rd of the month!
The other horse mentioned on the blog, COURT IN MOTION, won his race in a canter @ 4/6.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Chepstow and Warwick today.
At Chepstow, previous blog selection JUSTABOUT runs again. LTO he looked like being involved in the finish till a mistake at the 2nd-last put paid to his chances. It’s 3-mile today and I did think a drop to 22f would suit him better, but trainer Charlie Tizzard must reckon he stays this trip as he’s entered for a 3m2f chase next Monday. We know the horse is fit, and can jump and is capable of winning off his mark of OR95. Current odds of 9/2 look fair as joint-fav Mister Wiseman has to prove his stamina at this trip, 3rd fav Dunkelly Castle looks weighted out of this, and it’s a big ask of Major Malarky to win off a 573-day break.
Phil Hobbs sent subsequent Welsh National winner Dream Alliance for the 3-mile hurdle last year, and perhaps he has similar intentions for PAVILLON BLEU. He does have stamina to prove tho’ and I may be tempted on a long-odds wager on Two Miles West who has won twice at this trip and can run a decent race if his mind is on it.
At Warwick, I made a note of SHADOW DANCER last season, and he did well on his novice chase debut last month to suggest he may prove hard to beat today. The short-priced fav is Dan Breen and if he takes to jumps today he should win (based on hurdles form) but the jumps game is not as straight-forward as that and 7/1 SHADOW DANCER and “evens” Dan Breen is not truly representive of their chances today – I’d have it 7/2 and 9/4 respectively.
Selection:
Chepstow 2:45 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 9/2 (various)
Current monthly points total = (-3.00pts)
Lastly, a plug for another blog I follow "Sprinterstogo" (see adjacent link) who hit the target with an 8/1 winner yesterday with resident tipster The Laird's only selection. Well done!
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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