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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday 3 November 2010
Vamizi 2nd - another near miss!
Paul Nicholls had 1st & 2nd in the Haldon Gold Cup with Tchico Polos and a rejuvenated Twist Magic. Somersby plugged-on to be 3rd having looked capable of winning on approaching the 2nd-last, but when he landed after that his effort quickly petered out. Prior to that he looked very strong and this run should bring him right up to race fitness NTO. Twist Magic hit a couple of fences hard (as he is apt to do as he’s never been the cleanest jumper of a fence) and with a cleaner round he could well have won. As for Chaninbar, ignore this run as he was left at the start and was 25-lengths adrift as the leaders jumped the 2nd fence; he had no chance at all – and let’s hope the starter got a good rollicking from connections of Chaninbar.
It was yet another 2nd for the blog selection when VAMIZI failed to hold-off the winner Iconoclast, and went down by ¾ of a length. He drifted to 9/2 before the off (which I took advantage of) and hit 1.40 in-running when he grabbed the lead on landing after the final fence. But he’d been making the pace thru’out the race and the effort told on what looked very soft going. Iconoclast had previously won on soft going over the 3-mile trip last January at Kempton beating some consistent handicappers. Then NTO - despite being 2nd-fav - he jumped poorly and was pulled-up. His last run was a fair effort in hindsight, and his rating today of OR121 looks lenient now. I would expect both these horses to come on for this run, and they both finished well clear of the 3rd (Son Histoire, who also ran a fair race) and can be expected to run well NTO. Unfortunately, that means the blog is now 3pts down for November, and it’s only the 3rd of the month!
The other horse mentioned on the blog, COURT IN MOTION, won his race in a canter @ 4/6.
There are jump meetings at Chepstow and Warwick today.
At Chepstow, previous blog selection JUSTABOUT runs again. LTO he looked like being involved in the finish till a mistake at the 2nd-last put paid to his chances. It’s 3-mile today and I did think a drop to 22f would suit him better, but trainer Charlie Tizzard must reckon he stays this trip as he’s entered for a 3m2f chase next Monday. We know the horse is fit, and can jump and is capable of winning off his mark of OR95. Current odds of 9/2 look fair as joint-fav Mister Wiseman has to prove his stamina at this trip, 3rd fav Dunkelly Castle looks weighted out of this, and it’s a big ask of Major Malarky to win off a 573-day break.
Phil Hobbs sent subsequent Welsh National winner Dream Alliance for the 3-mile hurdle last year, and perhaps he has similar intentions for PAVILLON BLEU. He does have stamina to prove tho’ and I may be tempted on a long-odds wager on Two Miles West who has won twice at this trip and can run a decent race if his mind is on it.
At Warwick, I made a note of SHADOW DANCER last season, and he did well on his novice chase debut last month to suggest he may prove hard to beat today. The short-priced fav is Dan Breen and if he takes to jumps today he should win (based on hurdles form) but the jumps game is not as straight-forward as that and 7/1 SHADOW DANCER and “evens” Dan Breen is not truly representive of their chances today – I’d have it 7/2 and 9/4 respectively.
Chepstow 2:45 JUSTABOUT, 1pt win @ 9/2 (various)
Current monthly points total = (-3.00pts)
Lastly, a plug for another blog I follow "Sprinterstogo" (see adjacent link) who hit the target with an 8/1 winner yesterday with resident tipster The Laird's only selection. Well done!
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