Great days racing, lots to get thru’, so here goes.
Chepstow:
I made a case for both SILVER BY NATURE and EXMOOR RANGER yesterday and, given the soft going today, I am not going to desert them. They should both run cracking races and currently they are both available at 16/1 for the Welsh National at 1:45.
For the 2:20, I think PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE is on a great rating of OR138, but this trip is probably too short for him and this may be a confidence building race. Even so, I would expect a big run.
Sandown:
The 32Red chase (class 2) at 2:05 is another great handicap, and I am not deserting previous blog winner MIDNIGHT HAZE, but current odds are now just 7/1 and the value has gone.
From the Horse Alert list comes FREE WORLD in the 3:15 and I think he will really come good today on this going and over this trip.
Selections:
Chepstow 1:45, SILVER BY NATURE, ½pt ew @ 16/1
Chepstow 1:45, EXMOOR RANGER, ½pt ew @ 16/1
Sandown 3:15, FREE WORLD, ½pt ew @ 9/1
Total = 3pts staked
At Punchestown, expect FLAT OUT to win his debut novice chase at 11:45. He could be very, very good as a novice chaser.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday, 8 January 2011
Friday, 7 January 2011
Welsh National thoughts
There are a couple of jump meetings at Bangor and Fontwell.
The prospect of very heavy going at Bangor does not fill me with glee, so I’m not assessing the racing there. What is interesting tho’ is that Nicky Henderson has sent a good number of representatives and his stable jockey Barry Geraghty. Henderson is definitely “old school”, and he knows that to get the best performances at the Festival in March – just over 2 months away now – horses need a run between the 1st Jan and 14th Feb to be at their peak come the test in March.
At Fontwell, it is also very soft (heavy in places) going, and with heavy rain forecast this morning, there is another inspection there at 11am this morning. As such, I am going to give that meeting a miss as well.
If racing does go ahead, it will be interesting to see how Quantitativeeasing gets on for Nicky Henderson in the novice chase. Only 4 go to post for that, including that old rogue that is Straw Bear, still a novice chaser at 10yo. Fontwell is Gifford’s home track, and Straw Bear is having his 1st run in over a year (last couple were over hurdles). I’ve a feeling in my bones that these are the sort of conditions that could help Straw Bear break his chasing “duck”.
I was also going to make a selection in the 3m2f handicap chase (class 4) at 2:30. One from the horse alert list entered – ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Last time he ran it was on unsuitable good-to-firm going, but the soft/heavy going will be more suitable for him today. Admittedly, he is a course winner at Fontwell on good-to-firm going, but he left that form well behind when winning over 3-mile at Huntingdon on good-to-soft in December 2009. That was a useful field for the grade that he beat that day, and ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES stayed on strong to take the race. Being a half-brother to Longshanks (who was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch) this 3m2f trip should not trouble him. He also seems fairly treated on OR92, as his full sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler, and Longshanks won off OR130 (on heavy) as a chaser, so worsening ground should also not be a negative factor. So, he has the potential to leave this rating far behind, the only spanner in the works being that he’s had a few training problems this season (hence not having run since September) and trainer Chris Gordon thinks he may benefit from the run.
So, no selections today.
I wrote earlier in the week about Binocular’s chances in the Champion Hurdle. Yesterday, his trainer Nicky Henderson stated the horse would run another couple of times before defending his crown – and that means that (unlike some other intended runners) he will be primed on the race-track rather than on the gallops. No current trainer has sent out more Festival winners than Nicky Henderson, and I think he knows what he is doing. As I wrote on Wednesday; do not ignore Binocular – he is now trading at longer odds than he did after winning the last renewal and yet he’s done nothing wrong in the meantime. He’s been there, done it and has the T-shirt; he demands respect.
The rescheduled Welsh National takes place at Chepstow tomorrow (Saturday) and the prospect of heavy rain today and tomorrow mean that (should the race go ahead) it will be an extreme stamina test, and not one for the faint-hearted. Last year’s runner-up SILVER BY NATURE did not run well at all LTO in the Hennessey. A mistake at the 1st and again at the 4th meant he was toiling at the rear early-on and this “slugger” needs heavy going and an extreme stamina test to slow the pace down so that he can come into his own once they’ve run 20f+. Conditions will be near perfect for him at Chepstow, but having to carry 11st12lb wont. They say weight does not stop a good horse and SILVER BY NATURE is one of the very few horses to beat the top-class Our Vic on soft/heavy going. He has to be an each-way selection. Venetia Williams Summery Justice is also very interesting having had just 3 chase runs (won twice), but he’s too short in the betting at 10/1 for me. Another horse that always runs a genuine race and should really have won more often is EXMOOR RANGER. I reckon he’d have gone close in the William Hill Handicap at the Festival last March but for being brought-down early. At 20/1 and with a respectable 11st 1lb to carry, this strong traveller will give you a good run for your money. With going this testing, it will be very difficult to get back into the race from off the pace – expect many to be pulled-up after halfway – and those racing “in the van” may hold the advantage.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
The prospect of very heavy going at Bangor does not fill me with glee, so I’m not assessing the racing there. What is interesting tho’ is that Nicky Henderson has sent a good number of representatives and his stable jockey Barry Geraghty. Henderson is definitely “old school”, and he knows that to get the best performances at the Festival in March – just over 2 months away now – horses need a run between the 1st Jan and 14th Feb to be at their peak come the test in March.
At Fontwell, it is also very soft (heavy in places) going, and with heavy rain forecast this morning, there is another inspection there at 11am this morning. As such, I am going to give that meeting a miss as well.
If racing does go ahead, it will be interesting to see how Quantitativeeasing gets on for Nicky Henderson in the novice chase. Only 4 go to post for that, including that old rogue that is Straw Bear, still a novice chaser at 10yo. Fontwell is Gifford’s home track, and Straw Bear is having his 1st run in over a year (last couple were over hurdles). I’ve a feeling in my bones that these are the sort of conditions that could help Straw Bear break his chasing “duck”.
I was also going to make a selection in the 3m2f handicap chase (class 4) at 2:30. One from the horse alert list entered – ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Last time he ran it was on unsuitable good-to-firm going, but the soft/heavy going will be more suitable for him today. Admittedly, he is a course winner at Fontwell on good-to-firm going, but he left that form well behind when winning over 3-mile at Huntingdon on good-to-soft in December 2009. That was a useful field for the grade that he beat that day, and ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES stayed on strong to take the race. Being a half-brother to Longshanks (who was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch) this 3m2f trip should not trouble him. He also seems fairly treated on OR92, as his full sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler, and Longshanks won off OR130 (on heavy) as a chaser, so worsening ground should also not be a negative factor. So, he has the potential to leave this rating far behind, the only spanner in the works being that he’s had a few training problems this season (hence not having run since September) and trainer Chris Gordon thinks he may benefit from the run.
So, no selections today.
I wrote earlier in the week about Binocular’s chances in the Champion Hurdle. Yesterday, his trainer Nicky Henderson stated the horse would run another couple of times before defending his crown – and that means that (unlike some other intended runners) he will be primed on the race-track rather than on the gallops. No current trainer has sent out more Festival winners than Nicky Henderson, and I think he knows what he is doing. As I wrote on Wednesday; do not ignore Binocular – he is now trading at longer odds than he did after winning the last renewal and yet he’s done nothing wrong in the meantime. He’s been there, done it and has the T-shirt; he demands respect.
The rescheduled Welsh National takes place at Chepstow tomorrow (Saturday) and the prospect of heavy rain today and tomorrow mean that (should the race go ahead) it will be an extreme stamina test, and not one for the faint-hearted. Last year’s runner-up SILVER BY NATURE did not run well at all LTO in the Hennessey. A mistake at the 1st and again at the 4th meant he was toiling at the rear early-on and this “slugger” needs heavy going and an extreme stamina test to slow the pace down so that he can come into his own once they’ve run 20f+. Conditions will be near perfect for him at Chepstow, but having to carry 11st12lb wont. They say weight does not stop a good horse and SILVER BY NATURE is one of the very few horses to beat the top-class Our Vic on soft/heavy going. He has to be an each-way selection. Venetia Williams Summery Justice is also very interesting having had just 3 chase runs (won twice), but he’s too short in the betting at 10/1 for me. Another horse that always runs a genuine race and should really have won more often is EXMOOR RANGER. I reckon he’d have gone close in the William Hill Handicap at the Festival last March but for being brought-down early. At 20/1 and with a respectable 11st 1lb to carry, this strong traveller will give you a good run for your money. With going this testing, it will be very difficult to get back into the race from off the pace – expect many to be pulled-up after halfway – and those racing “in the van” may hold the advantage.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Wednesday, 5 January 2011
Alert list results updated
No selections for today’s racing at Southwell over the jumps.
I’ve updated the Horse Alert results list and it has been a harrowing job. From the 24 runs to date by horses on the list, only 2 have been winning efforts. It has made me realise that preparing lists of horses to follow is not just a difficult exercise to undertake, but perhaps a worthless exercise altogether. There are a couple of areas of solace: some horses have yet to run; and some have been running in races in which they are totally outclassed. Hopefully, there will be a few winners from the list between now and Grand National day in April.
I am far more happy with my Antepost Selections.
I fully expect Kauto Star to win the re-scheduled King George at Kempton on 15th January, and that will surely affect the odds on Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup. If there is any relaxation in his current odds of 9/2 then grab it with both hands. If Kauto Star and Imperial Commander met in March without the presence of Denman in the same race, then it would be tricky splitting them. But Kauto Star does not seem to enjoy racing against his stable companion Denman. It upsets his jumping as he is unable to dictate the rhythm of the race while Denman “tanks” along in front. It will require a rethink on race tactics by Ruby Walsh on how to cope with Denman – and in the meantime, that plays into the hands of Imperial Commander. I was sincerely hoping that a new challenger would appear from the ranks of younger horses but, as yet, we haven’t seen one.
I am also happy with Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle, and I will have another nibble at him before his next race. Do not ignore Binocular – he is now trading at longer odds than he did after winning the last renewal and yet he’s done nothing wrong in the meantime. He’s been there, done it and has the T-shirt; he demands respect.
As for the Arkle, time is running-out for realistic challengers to Ghizao. I can see him starting the Arkle at under 2/1, such is the superiority of form to others in the race. He is not a talking horse and is, in my opinion, vastly under-rated by the market.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
I’ve updated the Horse Alert results list and it has been a harrowing job. From the 24 runs to date by horses on the list, only 2 have been winning efforts. It has made me realise that preparing lists of horses to follow is not just a difficult exercise to undertake, but perhaps a worthless exercise altogether. There are a couple of areas of solace: some horses have yet to run; and some have been running in races in which they are totally outclassed. Hopefully, there will be a few winners from the list between now and Grand National day in April.
I am far more happy with my Antepost Selections.
I fully expect Kauto Star to win the re-scheduled King George at Kempton on 15th January, and that will surely affect the odds on Imperial Commander for the Gold Cup. If there is any relaxation in his current odds of 9/2 then grab it with both hands. If Kauto Star and Imperial Commander met in March without the presence of Denman in the same race, then it would be tricky splitting them. But Kauto Star does not seem to enjoy racing against his stable companion Denman. It upsets his jumping as he is unable to dictate the rhythm of the race while Denman “tanks” along in front. It will require a rethink on race tactics by Ruby Walsh on how to cope with Denman – and in the meantime, that plays into the hands of Imperial Commander. I was sincerely hoping that a new challenger would appear from the ranks of younger horses but, as yet, we haven’t seen one.
I am also happy with Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle, and I will have another nibble at him before his next race. Do not ignore Binocular – he is now trading at longer odds than he did after winning the last renewal and yet he’s done nothing wrong in the meantime. He’s been there, done it and has the T-shirt; he demands respect.
As for the Arkle, time is running-out for realistic challengers to Ghizao. I can see him starting the Arkle at under 2/1, such is the superiority of form to others in the race. He is not a talking horse and is, in my opinion, vastly under-rated by the market.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
GHIZAO looking good for the Arkle
I’ve been away from blogging the best part of 3 weeks due to the inclement weather prior to Christmas, and spending some quality time with family over the holiday period.
There has been some good racing since the last blog – even if there has been little of it to go around – and the two feature races of the holiday period; that is the King George and the Welsh National, are yet to be run on their rearranged dates.
I left you with a winner in Aztec Treasure and for December the blog selections broke-even (3 selections, with 1 winner @ 3/1).
So far, the following antepost advices have been provided on the blog:-
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 2pts win @ 9/2 for the Gold Cup (on 22/11 and again on 28/11)
DENMAN, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
BURTON PORT, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt eachway @ 14/1 for the Champion Hurdle (on 27/11)
GHIZAO, 1pt eachway @ 12/1 for the Arkle (on 23/11)
GAUVAIN , ½pt eachway @ 25/1 for the QM Champion Chase (on 15/11)
So, there’s 10pts staked already.
At Leopardstown on 28th December there was the grade 1, Lexus Chase. Won by Pandorama (one of my bankers in the my TTTF entries) this was a solid performance, with the places filled by the same horses as in 2009 (Money Trix and Joncol). They will all now go on to contest the Hennessey where Pandorama will be hard to beat if showing natural progression. However, his liking for soft going is likely to prevent him contesting the Gold Cup.
On 30th December, Big Zeb confirmed his superiority to Golden Silver over 2-mile with Captain Cee Bee toiling behind. That’s the end of it for Captain Cee Bee as far as I am concerned as he went into the race with 3 wins from 4 runs on soft/heavy, so claims that he hated the heavy going were a straw clutching exercise. With BIG ZEB at 7/2 and Master Minded at 7/4 for the QM Champion Chase, the value has to lie with BIG ZEB who was only beaten a head by Master Minded on levels at Punchestown in April 2009. I can see Master Minded starting at slight odds-on for the QM Champion Chase on the day, and so we could see 4/1 or longer for BIG ZEB then. The next race on that card was the grade 1 hurdle won by Hurricane Fly. This display did not impress me at all and merely confirmed that the “Fly” is about 3lb better than Solwhit who I rate a solid 158 horse. Corals are best-priced at 9/2, but I’m not tempted as Hurricane Fly needs to find another 7lb+. The presence of Hurricane Fly at the head of the market has pushed PEDDLERS CROSS out half-a-point to 13/2 (he’s just 9/2 with Corals) and I’m tempted to have another 1pt win on PEDDLERS CROSS for the Champion Hurdle at those odds, but I’ll hang fire just yet.
After winning the Champion Hurdle last March, BINOCULAR was 4/1 to repeat in 2011. He is now 5/1 in some places (Bet365 and Stan James) and I expect Nicky Henderson to get a win out of him NTO before attempting to hold on to his crown. Remember, 15 of the last 18 Champion Hurdle winners won their previous race; the last 16 winners all ran in the calendar year the race was run; and 8 of the last 11 winners have been aged 7 or older (4 being 7yo’s).
I’ve already written that POQUELIN is my idea of the winner of the Ryanair, and he’s been cut by most firms from 6/1 to 5’s. I’m starting to formulate some Festival multiples, and POQUELIN is featuring highly as “banker” material.
The performance of the holiday was GHIZAO winning at Newbury while giving 10lb to Captain Chris. This was a race won previously by Paul Nicholls with the likes of Big Bucks and Kauto Star. I said after his win at Cheltenham in November that he was a 160+ horse, and he confirmed it here.
Current odds of 6/1 look generous and, as he goes straight to the Festival, I’m recommending another 1pt win at those odds.
Do not ignore Captain Chris; he had a wind operation prior to this race and may have lacked some fitness.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
There has been some good racing since the last blog – even if there has been little of it to go around – and the two feature races of the holiday period; that is the King George and the Welsh National, are yet to be run on their rearranged dates.
I left you with a winner in Aztec Treasure and for December the blog selections broke-even (3 selections, with 1 winner @ 3/1).
So far, the following antepost advices have been provided on the blog:-
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 2pts win @ 9/2 for the Gold Cup (on 22/11 and again on 28/11)
DENMAN, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
BURTON PORT, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 for the Gold Cup (on 28/11)
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt eachway @ 14/1 for the Champion Hurdle (on 27/11)
GHIZAO, 1pt eachway @ 12/1 for the Arkle (on 23/11)
GAUVAIN , ½pt eachway @ 25/1 for the QM Champion Chase (on 15/11)
So, there’s 10pts staked already.
At Leopardstown on 28th December there was the grade 1, Lexus Chase. Won by Pandorama (one of my bankers in the my TTTF entries) this was a solid performance, with the places filled by the same horses as in 2009 (Money Trix and Joncol). They will all now go on to contest the Hennessey where Pandorama will be hard to beat if showing natural progression. However, his liking for soft going is likely to prevent him contesting the Gold Cup.
On 30th December, Big Zeb confirmed his superiority to Golden Silver over 2-mile with Captain Cee Bee toiling behind. That’s the end of it for Captain Cee Bee as far as I am concerned as he went into the race with 3 wins from 4 runs on soft/heavy, so claims that he hated the heavy going were a straw clutching exercise. With BIG ZEB at 7/2 and Master Minded at 7/4 for the QM Champion Chase, the value has to lie with BIG ZEB who was only beaten a head by Master Minded on levels at Punchestown in April 2009. I can see Master Minded starting at slight odds-on for the QM Champion Chase on the day, and so we could see 4/1 or longer for BIG ZEB then. The next race on that card was the grade 1 hurdle won by Hurricane Fly. This display did not impress me at all and merely confirmed that the “Fly” is about 3lb better than Solwhit who I rate a solid 158 horse. Corals are best-priced at 9/2, but I’m not tempted as Hurricane Fly needs to find another 7lb+. The presence of Hurricane Fly at the head of the market has pushed PEDDLERS CROSS out half-a-point to 13/2 (he’s just 9/2 with Corals) and I’m tempted to have another 1pt win on PEDDLERS CROSS for the Champion Hurdle at those odds, but I’ll hang fire just yet.
After winning the Champion Hurdle last March, BINOCULAR was 4/1 to repeat in 2011. He is now 5/1 in some places (Bet365 and Stan James) and I expect Nicky Henderson to get a win out of him NTO before attempting to hold on to his crown. Remember, 15 of the last 18 Champion Hurdle winners won their previous race; the last 16 winners all ran in the calendar year the race was run; and 8 of the last 11 winners have been aged 7 or older (4 being 7yo’s).
I’ve already written that POQUELIN is my idea of the winner of the Ryanair, and he’s been cut by most firms from 6/1 to 5’s. I’m starting to formulate some Festival multiples, and POQUELIN is featuring highly as “banker” material.
The performance of the holiday was GHIZAO winning at Newbury while giving 10lb to Captain Chris. This was a race won previously by Paul Nicholls with the likes of Big Bucks and Kauto Star. I said after his win at Cheltenham in November that he was a 160+ horse, and he confirmed it here.
Current odds of 6/1 look generous and, as he goes straight to the Festival, I’m recommending another 1pt win at those odds.
Do not ignore Captain Chris; he had a wind operation prior to this race and may have lacked some fitness.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)