The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 3

The 5-days declarations for the opening day were posted at lunchtime today (Wed 08Mar) and there are a few non-runners in my antepost wagers. As expected, Mighty Potter is a NR for the Arkle as he's the fav for the "Turners" on Day-3; so that's £5 lost. Also in the Arkle, my eachway wagers on Boothill and Sir Gerhard are both NR's, but these wagers a NRNB so the stakes totalling £20 are refunded. The main wagers on Impaire Et Passe & Il Etait Temps (Supreme Hurdle), El Fabiolo (Arkle), and Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior (NH Chase) all all still "live".

Onto Day 2, and it starts with a couple of top novice races. Remember, this is a 4-day meeting with 28 races and you cannot possibly have an angle on every one.  Pick and choose your targets, and sometimes there isn't a wager worth having, like in the Champion Hurdle were unless you had a significant wager on Constitution Hill sometime last summer at odds of 2/1 then all you are looking for is finding the placed horses, and that can be tricky for very little reward.

Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f

Possibly the most influential novice hurdle at the Festival, this still has an enormous number of entries and I'm not tempted to consider a wager until the weekend when we will know a) what is most likely to run, and b) the likely ground.  I'm not convinced that Hermes Allen (trained by Paul Nicholls) is good enough to win this, but Mullins has a hatful of horses to choose from - and he usually leaves it late to make his final choice for this race.

Old Brown Advisory Novices Chase (Broadway) over 3-miles & 80yds

I like this race, mainly as it takes some winning and the form is usually a good guide to finding the winner. This year we have a fav in Gerri Colombe who looks like he might not be outclassed were he in the Gold Cup on Friday.  He does have to test him stamina at this trip, but he looks more than capable. The 2nd fav, The Real Whacker, has won both his chase starts but the strength of the form in those races is debateable, and I think his odds could take a walk on the day. If you fancy his chances, then I would wait until the day of the race and leave your wager late.  Sir Gerhard holds an entry for this race, but I really can't see him running on what will be only his 2nd chase race, and the "Turners" (if he does run) is more suitable. As such, I think Thyme Hill could go off the 2nd-fav at around 7/2, and we know he stays the trip, jumps well, and handles the course - and readers are on him at an average of 15/2. Don't underestimate Stage Star (Nicholls) who should ensure a proper test of stamina , as will the consistent Thunder Rock. No further wagers in this race until the day.

Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle over 2m5f

At the time of writing there are still 87 entered, so expect a full compliment of starters in this race which has a maximum of 26 going to post.  I will hang on for a few days.

Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles

This is being billed as another "match" as it was last year, only this time Energumene is meeting Edwardstone. Last year, readers of the blog were on Energumene at the extremely generous odds of 4/1 and scooped a massive win. This year the race does not offer the same value. To be honest, if Energumene runs his best form then there's not much between the leading pair. Their conqueror at Cheltenham in January was Editeur Du Gite, but will he be allowed to dominate the race again, I doubt it. One that could surprise them is Gentleman De Mee, but only if he improves another 7lb and I'm not sure he can. I can't see any value in this race, I think the betting has it just about right. 

Cross Country Chase over 3m6f

Another race that I don't think should be run at the Festival.

Grand Annual H'Cap Chase over 2-miles

This is a tricky race, and one which usually sparks a gamble or two in the market. I think the Mullins trained Saint Roi could be the gamble, as he's entered for the Arkle and was presumably aimed at the race, but isn't good enough - so he will end up in this race by default. Keep an eye on Riviere D'Etel trained by Gordon Elliott: he was well fancied for the Arkle last year, and has a touch of class about him, yet he's running off OR149.

Champion Bumper over 2-miles

Another race that I avoid.

Grand National 2012

The 469th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Today we have the Grand National - the greatest horse race in the World - being run at Aintree, a track that is just a few miles from where I grew up. Last year I gave 3 horses for the race on my blog and included the winner BALLABRIGGS. By comparison, none (not one) of the Racing Post tipsters (of which there are many) named the winner despite each putting-up 4 horses as a shortlist.

But first, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f at 2:50 and if anything beats ROCK ON RUBY in this race then it is seriously a good hurdler. I was on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle and he was staying-on that day, but Aintree is a speed track and if Zarkandar was caught for pace at Cheltenham he’ll really struggle to stay in contention here. Do not underestimate Thousand Stars who was 2nd in this race last season beaten just a ¼-length. I’m tempted to do a forecast; Rock On Ruby to beat Thousand Stars.

For the Grand National, earlier this week, I suggested WEST END ROCKER, PLANET OF SOUND, ACCORDING TO PETE and MIDNIGHT HAZE. The more I look at PLANET OF SOUND, the more I like him and he should be the best of those carrying 11st+. The drying ground (it is now officially “good”) will help him, but it will hinder WEST END ROCKER who would prefer it to be softer (his last 2 wins have been on heavy going). Similarly, ACCORDING TO PETE has never won a chase on ground faster the good-to-soft. There is a lot of pace in this field with nearly 30 of the 40 runners classed as “prominent” runners in the Weekender assessment. This means that it will be unlikely that anything will come from off the pace and win, unless they go too fast on the 1st circuit and the pace collapses in the 2nd circuit – as happened when MON MOME won at 100/1. Killyglen was up with the pace till falling 4-out last year, and that was because he was tired. Prior to his LTO win over 3m2f on soft, his form beyond 3-miles was F/6th/PU/2nd/ PU/PU which suggests in a true run race he won’t stay this trip. I personally think it is very hard for a horse aged 11yo or older to win this race, and so I’m not considering anything in this category, including last year’s winner BALLABRIGGS who is an 11yo. However, I expect STATE OF PLAY to be in the 1st-6 home (he’s run 4th / 3rd / 4th in the last 3 Nationals) and at 50/1 with Bet Victor who are paying to 6 places, he’s worth a ew “fun” punt. Another that I really like is MIDNIGHT HAZE. He may have done all his winning going right-handed, but Aintree is the longest circuit in the country and they race mainly in a straight-line. If he jumps Bechers without mishap on the 1st circuit then he could be in for a big race as he’s won 3 of his 6 races at trips beyond 3-mile, he’s a prominent runner, and Kim Bailey also trained the winner of the race in 1990 (Mr Frisk who still holds the course record time)

Onto my selections. For me PLANET OF SOUND – even tho’ he’s carrying 11st 5lb – at 33/1 (Bet365 & Stan James who go 5 places eachway) is great value. And - at 125/1 with Bet365 – I cannot ignore MIDNIGHT HAZE. Generally, the winner goes off at odds under 20/1 and from those only WEST END ROCKER at 16/1 and SYNCRONISED at 9/1 look capable of winning the race. At 9/1, I cannot have Synchronised tho’ I would expect him to be in the 1st-5 home.

Selections:
Aintree 4:15, PLANET OF SOUND, ¼pt eachway @ 33/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Aintree 4:15, MIDNIGHT HAZE, ¼pt eachway @ 125/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places, BOG)
Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.
The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Remember! Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.

For Harry and St George!

The 426th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I have not blogged much this week as I had the funeral of a very old friend to attend on Thursday. Graham died suddenly at the age of just 51 and it was a great shock to all who knew him. All who were there, and there must have been well over 150 people, had tremendous good feeling for Graham who was an incredibly generous man whose love for life always uplifted your soul. I felt both humble and proud that he had chosen me to be one of his friends, and I will miss him.

Today, we have good meetings at Cheltenham and Doncaster, and another interesting meeting at Uttoxeter. I normally go to the Trials meeting at Cheltenham, but this year I’m watching on tv. The opening Triumph Hurdle trial looks a straight choice between Baby Mix and GRUMETI and I favour the latter who looks as good if not better than Alan King’s previous winners of this race. At 13/8, I’m having a personal wager on him.
Next on the card we have novice handicap chase over 2m5f, and there are 4 from my alert list running in it: Bless The Wings, Carpincho, That’lldoboy and Lexicon Lad. Of those, I favour Bless The Wings and That’lldoboy andboth look well handicapped on OR130 and OR127 respectively. This trip and track should suit BLESS THE WINGS and I reckon he should be a lot shorter than current odds of 6/1, as I’d have him the 4/1 fav.
The next at 2:05 is all about Aerial and whether he should be the fav as The Giant Bolster won over C&D on this card last year and has failed in his attempts to stay 3-mile since. Back to this trip and getting 7lb from Aerial, he will be no pushover. I can’t see either Poquelin or Tamarinbleu getting involved off their ratings, but I do like CHANCE DU ROY at 10/1 taking the 3rd place spot and maybe even giving the leading pair something to think about.
The Argento Chase should go to DIAMOND HARRY and I cannot understand why this horse is not the 2/1 fav for this race. He ran a cracker in the Betfair Chase and based on his Hennessey Gold Cup win, he’s clearly the best horse in this race. The only horse I fear is Midnight Chase who is a better horse than OR158 and he could have them all off the bridle if he turns in a performance like the one that won the Listed handicap chase over C&D in December 2010.

At Doncaster, we have the Skybet Chase and it looks a cracker. First off, Aiteen Thirtythree does not stay 3-miles in this company. I also think you’d be taking a big chance with Shalimar Fromentero to win this as he looks nothing special. I think Galaxy Rock and AP McCoy are a marriage made in heaven, but this trip isn’t far enough at just 3-mile. Qianshan Leader and Shakalakaboomboom both looks well treated on LTO wins and it would not surprise me if either won the race. Cape Tribulation has been crying out for 3-mile so he should also run well today, but needs a step up in his form to win. The two I like are Wymott @ 20/1 and Wayward Prince at 9/1. When this pair met over hurdles in Feb 2010, Wymott was the better horse. As such, if Wymott can get his act together he is a very dangerous horse running off OR142. Wayward Prince ran much better LTO than in his reappearance in the Hennessey Gold Cup (in which Wymott ran 6th) and has been dropped to OR146 which I think is lenient as I reckon he’s OR155+ at his best. I was going to make Wayward Prince my antepost selection earlier this week when he was 16/1, but events overtook me, and he’s just 9/1 now which is not so generous, but I still think he worth and eachway wager. As for Wymott, I’ll have a personal “place-only” wager on him.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2:35, DIAMOND HARRY, 2pts win at 4/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)
Doncaster 2:50, WAYWARD PRINCE, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Bet365 best odds guaranteed)

These are my early wagers and there could well be additional wagers later on.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Pasco to hurdle to victory

The 417th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I always find it interesting, having appraised the Saturday entries on a Thursday evening, just where the horses end up running – if they run at all. We have 3 interesting meetings today at Sandown, Wincanton and Newcastle, and hopefully by the end of this blog I am going to have a wager as I have not posted one since Boxing Day.

At Sandown, if the opening mares hurdle does not go to KAFFIE then something must have gone amiss. The soft going will really suit this front-running mare and if she does not win then she will only have herself to blame. Kells Belle and The Strawberry One both want going quicker than soft to show their best, and the others are outclassed and exposed. You can still get 7/4 in KAFFIE and that looks good to me as I would have her at slight odds-on. In the 2:05, I was going to go with top-weight Tanks For That who meets Rileyev on 5lb better terms than LTO and he looked to have the beating of that horse prior to falling in the race. It is a tight race tho and I am also taken with HOLD FAST who comes here (rather than Wincanton) and has a 12lb pull with Rileyev on their last meeting. Too close to call.
The Tolworth Hurdle looks tricky and, if pushed, I would go for PROSPECT WELLS for whom odds of 7/4 (Blue Square) could seem very generous later on.
For the feature race at 3:10, I cannot believe that QHILIMAR is 18/1 (William Hill). He is a C&D winner who has won on soft going, and while outclassed in the Hennessey off OR142, he races today off OR137 and he is capable of winning off this mark. He had no sort of race LTO on heavy going when unseating and he should enjoy the strong pace that will be set today which will be nothing like that he had to cope with in the Hennessey. I would have him at 7/1 for this race, maybe even shorter.
In the last race on the card we see Havingotascoobydo who I hoped would be chasing over 2m4f, but he runs in this 2-mile hurdle instead. I cannot have a wager on him in this, but he may well be worth a punt.

At Wincanton, as per yesterdays comments, in the opener REDBRIDGE REBEL for Phi Hobbs is worth a “place-only” wager. In the 2:50, PASCO is Paul Nicholls only runner at Wincanton and he could finally do the biz. He has nothing to fear in this race and could end his long losing run of 10 races back to Feb ’09. He should stay this trip and appreciate the going, as such 13/2 (Vic Chandler) looks worthwhile. In the 3:25, GALLOX BRIDGE looks an exciting handicap prospect and he looks thrown-in here off OR120 and Michael Byrne is worth every pound of his 5lb claim. Odds of 6/1 look very generous as I’d have him a lot shorter than that.

The only horse I’ll be watching (wagering?) today at Newcastle is in the last race, the bumper, and it’s MADAME BLAVATSKY who should prove too good for these.

Selections:
Wincanton 2:50, PASCO, 1pt win @ 13/2 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 3:35, GALLOX BRIDGE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)

I think QHILIMAR is well worth an eachway wager, but this is a tough race and there may be one or two that are too good for him – or he may win!

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Boxing Day spectacular

The 411th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

What a day we have in store today. Perhaps the most intriguing days racing we’ve had for many a day with reputations to be earned, restored and confirmed.
We have a huge amount of racing with meetings up and down the country so it won’t be possible to focus on it all.
Kempton hosts the day’s feature meeting and what a cracker of a day. The King George VI Chase sees the return of the battle for supremacy of Long Run and Kauto Star. Defending champion Long Run should be the fav for the race but odds of 11/8 are too short for me. I reckon that Long Run rates 170 (not OR182, and certainly not RPR187) and that puts him within striking distance of Diamond Harry if he’s in the form that he won the 2010 Hennessey Gold Cup. Both horses should come on for their run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock won by Kauto Star. As for Kauto, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will maintain the form of his Betfair Chase win but he may need to improve on that run to win today; the reason why is that this renewal looks one of the best we’ve seen in recent years. Captain Chris could well be a 170+ chaser in time, but he’s had an interrupted preparation and as such it is going to be a superlative performance for him to win. I really cannot see Master Minded staying this trip as the pace will be hot from the off with Golan Way almost certainly taking-on Kauto Star for the lead. He’s been called a few names, but Somersby is consistent and he’s also something to prove on his latest run. If he recaptures his best form then he could still be there in with a chance at the 2nd-last. I would make Long Run the 5/2 fav with Kauto Star at 9/2 and DIAMOND HARRY at 6/1 and that makes him the eachway value at 20/1 (Ladbrokes).
On the lead-up to the King George, we have a couple of novice chases which should see GRANDS CRUS winning the Feltham at 2:00, and before that the novice handicap looks very competitive tho’ I do like the chance of BLESS THE WINGS (9/1 with Stan James). Earlier this year, BINOCULAR won the previous Christmas Hurdle and he should do so again, unless Nicholl’s Rock On Ruby is the real-deal. I’d have BINOCULAR at 5/4 for this as he should run 165+ today and that should be good enough.
It’s the last race on the Kempton card that should provide me with a wager, and I’ve been waiting for PANTXOA to step up in trip from 2-mile and this 2m5f should prove his best. He is 9/1 for this with William Hill, quarter-odds to 4-places.
Wetherby has as its feature the Rowland Meyrick Chase at 1:45 and this race is as good as any handicap you’ll see. The fav Always Right will be taken on up front by Midnight Chase and that could be their undoing. Both are exceptional chasers and Always Right could end up the equal of Midnight Chase this season which suggests he’s well-in today. Knockara Beau also looks to be well-handicapped off OR143, but I feel he wants extreme trips of 3m4f+ to show his best. As such, I’m sticking with my Hennessey selection SARANDO who I fell will appreciate today’s easier “soft” going. He’s at 8/1 which is fair, but I’d hope for a little more perhaps 10/1. One that could shake them all up if he continues his improvement is HELPSTON who runs from 7lb out of the handicap and is 20/1, but he’s never looked his best on soft going.
On day’s like this it pays to pick and choose your targets as there will be plenty of value out there and you cannot possibly consider all the racing. The top races will be well-covered by the market, so look for some of the smaller races at the other meetings. Also pay attention to non-runners, as what may be a good price in the morning may not be by race-time; and vice versa. You may think your selection has a fair chance but if the danger is a non-runner suddenly yours is well-in. I was looking at Wincanton’s 1:40 and DIEREADH RE looked huge at 3/1 in the morning papers, but a couple of non-runners means the price has collapsed to 13/8. That’s no good to me, but if you’re having a multiple bet to small stakes for fun, then this is a decent addition. Another is WIDE RECIEVER at Market Rasen in the 1:35.
At Wincanton, SHAKING HANDS runs in the class 3 handicap chase at 2:50 renewing rivalry with Drybrook Bedouin on 2lb better terms. Both will enjoy this trip, tho’ it will suit SHAKING HANDS better, and he can win at useful odds of 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed).
Kim Bailey has won the handicap chase at Huntingdon (12:45) 3 times in recent years, and he’s entered BISHOPHILL JACK a 5yo who won his first chase LTO. That wasn’t great form, but this isn’t that competitive a race, and tho’ odds of 5/2 are skinny he should do the biz.
I’m going to keep looking at today’s racing as there will be plenty of fluctuation in the markets and opportunities will arise. If I spot any, then I will try and post a comment to this blog, but more likely I will advise of the fact on twitter via @wayward_lad.

Selections:
Kempton 3:40, PANTXOA, 1pt eachway @ 9/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wetherby 1:45, SARANDO, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Vic Chandler, best odds guaranteed)
Wincanton 2:50, SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it. The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain so, if you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.
All comments are welcome.

Revenge is best served cold

The 402^nd edition of the Wayward Lad Blog.

 

No blog yesterday, and this blog is being written and posted remotely – so please bear with me as once it's posted I have no ability to amend it if the text colour is difficult to read.

 

A couple of jumps meetings today at Catterick and Folkestone.

 

There are a few horses from my personal alert list running including Monsieur Jourdain who won LTO at 14/1. He goes for the 1:50 at Catterick over 3m & 1½f and I'm not entirely sure that he will stay this trip. He was caught towards the end of both his recent races and only won LTO as his challenger fell at the last fence. Behind him LTO was Quel Ballistic and he will enjoy the extra 3f today, but one that I think will relish the test of stamina even more is DYSTONIA's REVENGE who is a winner of 4 (from 7) PTP's. He's struggled to complete rules races (only 4 completed from 8 starts) but his latest (30Nov) when he just failed to win in fast time suggests improvement. Eighteen Carat will likely lead (or dispute the lead) but he's another who isn't guaranteed to stay beyond 2m 6f. DYSTONIA'S REVENGE is 12/1 (Blue Square & Bet365) and looks worthy of a small ew wager.

 

The 1:20 at Catterick sees the hurdling debut of ex-Cumani trained horse BOURNE, but he meets the useful looking CRACKENTORP who won LTO 12-days ago and that experience could prove decisive. Not a race to get heavily involved in tho' unless you know something that I don't.

 

The 3m & 1½f handicap hurdle at 2:20 sees OVERYOU return to a more suitable trip. He appears to have stamina to burn as he's won 2 of 3 races over 2m6f+ but is 0 from 14 over shorter trips. This lower grade race will suit him better too. As such, I reckon he should be much shorter than the 18/1 offered by Corals as he's only 8/1 in the Racing Post betting Forecast. He has to be worth an eachway wager given there are 17-runners.

 

At Folkestone, in the 1:10 we see the chasing debut of recent hurdling winner EMMASLEGEND who is a half-sister to the useful Aimigayle. If she's been well schooled - and Suzy Smith knows her onions – then she will prove hard to beat especially with her 7lb mares allowance.  The final race on today's card, a 3m1f chase, looks like being an interesting one. My old mate Absolute Shambles runs and he may enjoy the competition in this. He ran in snatches LTO, before throwing-in the towel. But there are half-a-dozen that could win this race and it'll be one for watching for me.

 

I'm not able to access the site's that I post my selections on for monitoring my performance, but if I was able then I'd be seriously considering both DYSTONIA's REVENGE and OVERYOU today.

 

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors, and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment form it.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you have read here, then please make a contribution (via the donate button) as an expression of thanks. Those that do will be rewarded with occasional supplementary information.

All comments are welcome.

M

JONCOL to take the John Durkan at Punchestown

The 401st edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 25
Winners = 5
Points staked = 30pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 13.60pts (ROI = 45.33%)

Yesterday’s meeting at Cheltenham was very informative in my opinion, and should throw-up a fair few winners, possibly even a Festival winner.

It started with the odds-on Hinterland being turned-over by the 14/1 BABY MIX who was having his hurdling debut in England having raced in France till mid-October and only joined trainer Tom George on 21st November, 3 weeks ago. BABY MIX looked very impressive indeed.

The 3-mile novice chase has been won by some decent horses, and 3 times in the past 7 years by Paul Nicholls (with Inchidaly Rock, What A Friend, Cornish Rebel). As such, his winner of this JOIN TOGETHER looks to have a bright future. He fell in his debut chase on 22nd Oct and, based on the form of that race, he may have gone close had he finished. The form of his next run (which he won) has worked out well enough. Mossley did not jump well today in defeat, so that tempers the form of today's race a little, but he was well there till stamina told from 2-out. Mossley is also clearly a smaller horse than JOIN TOGETHER and he may struggle as a chaser. I’d say this run puts JOIN TOGETHER 2nd only to Grands Crus amongst the staying novice chasers and (on a line thru’ Sonofvic) Nicholls will know just how good that one is.

The next race on the card - the class 2 handicap chase - fell apart when Tanks For That and Dave’s Dream both lost their riders at the 4th-last. Takeroc was already beaten when he fell at the next fence as he needs the bare 2-mile on a flat track to show his best. As such, my selection HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO was left in front and very quickly seemed unhappy with the situation with subsequent winner Astracad taking-up the running after the 3rd-last fence. He stayed-on again after the 2nd last (as he was now chasing rather than leading) but he was unable to re-assert his authority on the race. He should stay on OR135 and I feel he’ll be best going right-handed (has won twice at Ludlow) as he held his head oddly, and he could also stay up to 2m4f. As for Rileyev, the sooner he steps up to 2m4f, the better in my opinion.

The novice hurdle was dominated by SEA OF THUNDER – a half-bro’ to champion hurdler MAC’S JOY – who stole a commanding lead going to the final flight with the race at his mercy, but there he fell in spectacular fashion. Given he’d been put in his place by Hazy Tom LTO at Wetherby it could just be that that unbeaten 5yo (who is entered to run at Ascot next week) could be a lot better than the OR143 rating he’s been allotted. Whatever, SEA OF THUNDER is improving fast and looks to be OR140+ and might yet be worthy of being mentioned in the same sentence as his illustrious half-bro’.

The feature race of the meeting, the Spinal Research Gold Cup, went to Quantitativeeasing, a horse that I was not surprised to see win over a course and trip that he has excelled at. He has improved with every run prior to today, but in this race he matched his best effort and he may find life tough when re-rated as he’ll surely go up at least 7lb. Medermit in 2nd is as consisitent a horse as you’ll find and runs to the same level over fences as he did as a hurdler, 157-159. He is the benchmark for this race. Roudoudouville had the race won jumping the last, but the Cheltenham hill claimed him. If he stays on OR145 he can win a race over 2m4f. As for my selection GHIZAO, he made a couple of errors in his jumping and at halfway I’d almost given up on him. But, at the top o’the hill he travelled quickly into contention and looked to be travelling best after 3-out and landed in 3rd at the 2nd-last. However, he did not stay the final couple of furlongs and his effort petered-out. The tactical speed he showed in this competitive race marked him out as a classy horse, and a race over 2m1f or 2m2f could see him at his best. I still think he has the potential to run well in the QM Champion Chase next March for which he is 33/1.

The Grade 2 International hurdle produced another top hurdler in GRANDOUET for Nicky Henderson to go alongside Binocular, and Oskar Whisky. The runner-up Overturn won the Fighting Fifth hurdle last week and I reckon matched that performance in this, which puts GRANDOUET at about 160 (Overturn has never run better than 160, so where the handicapper gets OR168 from is anyone’s guess). Overturn will never win a Champion Hurdle, but GRANDOUET might. The RP’s race analysis tries to dampen down GRANDOUET’s Champion Hurdle potential by coming out with the “5yo’s don’t run well in the Champion Hurdle” bunkum, which should be binned alongside “2½ milers go well in the National”, and “French-breds don’t stay the National trip”. Let’s look at the facts:-
In 2011 – 2 x 5yo’s ran, Clerks Choice (6th) and Mille Chief (last of 11).
In 2010 - a 5yo was 3rd (Zaynar),
in 2009 - 5yo's came 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Celestial Halo, Binocular, Crack Away Jack - 23 ran)
In 2008 - a 5yo's came 1st and 3rd (Katchit, Punjabi - the only 2 5yo's in the race)
In 2007 - a 5yo came 3rd (Afsoun) with the only other 5yo (Detroit City) in 6th.
In 2006 - there were 3 x 5yo's in the race rated, OR145, OR147 and OR154
In last 5 years, 5yo's have filled 7 of the 16 available places (was 4th paid in 2009?) - that's a helluva strike-rate for an "age" so easily dissed – when they only provided 10 of the total 71 runners in those 5 years! On those stats, I’d say every 5yo that runs in the Champion Hurdle should be backed.

Along with GRANDOUET, the 3rd-placed horse BRAMPOUR ran in last March’s Triumph Hurdle at the Festival, and this is looking like having been a classic year for the 4yo’s.
The final race on the day’s entertaining card saw OSCAR WHISKY win at odds-on. He is the best performing hurdler this side of the Irish Sea seen this autumn and should be a lot shorter than 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle. The reason he’s not is that he’s probably more likely to go for the World Hurdle (for which he’s 8/1) and whether that’s the case will likely be answered if he takes up his entry for the Long Walk Hurdle next week at Ascot.

At Punchestown today (Sunday) we have the John Durkan Memorial Chase, a Grade 1 event over 2m4f. On official ratings there is very little splitting the main contenders. Top-rated is Rubi Light who will have going and trip in his favour but, for me, the jury is still out on whether he is really an OR164 horse, as he wasn’t beating OR137 rated Coolcashin much when he fell at the last (was re-mounted and finished 3rd) LTO. JONCOL will also love the trip and going and won this race 2 years ago as a 6yo. For me, he is the one they all have to beat. Were this race over 3-mile, I would not hesitate in nominating Kempes as I feel he needs further than 2m4f.The trip and going will also suit Tranquil Sea, but I feel he’s more of a 155-157 rated chaser, whereas JONCOL is 160-163. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty who rode both these horses when they last ran (and won on both) has opted for Tranquil Sea, and so Paul Carberry has the ride on JONCOL. If Geraghty’s choice results in the odds shortening on Tranquil Sea (from 7/2) then it could be that I can obtain 3/1 or even 7/2 about JONCOL and that would represent value in my book as at his current odds of 5/2 the market has it about right.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

A landmark page - the 400th blog post

The 400th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 23
Winners = 5
Points staked = 28pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 15.60pts (ROI = 55.71%)

Wow! The 400th blog page, who would’ve thought it?
It’s an auspicious day for the blog, so let’s see if we can mark it with a good winner.

There was no blog yesterday. I’ve just started a new job and the opportunities for sneaking half-an-hour in the morning to write and post-up the blog online are scarce. However, I am working on it and will probably have to resort to writing the blog the evening before racing on the train home from work. The majority of my selections emanate from my personal alert list and, so long as I can keep on top of that, I should be able to maintain my performance.

Thursday’s selections were a little disappointing. THE COCKNEY MACKEM ran a decent enough race and looked like winning 3-out (touched 1.20 in-running) but in the end, he had no effective response when challenged. As for ROSSBRIN, the race came too soon after the bold effort of his previous run.

There are a stack from my alert list running today: they are:-
Cheltenham
12:45 Join Together & Traffic Article
1:20 Takeroc
2:30 Great Endeavour / Ghizao / I’msingingtheblues / Quantitativeeasing / Roudoudou Ville
3:05 Brampour
3:35 Any Given Day & The Knoxs

Doncaster
1:05 Lively Baron & Emmaslegend
2:15 Quite The Man
3:20 Benny Be Good

Lingfield
12:20 Goring One
2:05 Helpston & Carpincho

The feature meeting is Cheltenham. Let’s get to it and the 12:45 has a couple of non-runners now so just 5 go to post. If TRAFFIC ARTICLE repeats his form of his LTO win here over an extended 3-mile then he’s going to need a good one to beat him on today’s terms, at 7/1 he’s the value for me in this.
The 1:20 looks a tricky race on paper. I feel TAKEROC needs a flat track and Cheltenham wont suit him. Tanks For That is best fresh, as he proved LTO, but the runner-up that day HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO looks to have a great chance here as he’s likely got the stamina to stay 2m4f (and he’ll need that today in this over 2m & 110yds) and looks to be improving still. Rileyev will be arriving late on the scene, possibly too late; and Oh Crick seems to find nothing under pressure these days despite travelling well in his races. Astracad has been highly tried and his form is difficult to weigh-up, as such I feel the balance of probabilities lies with HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO at 4/1.
The feature race at 2:30 is very competitive and why it cannot find a decent long-term sponsor is beyond me. Great Endeavour would have won the Hennessey had it been a 3-mile race and I think he is still competitive off OR157 which is 6lb higher than he ran off in the Hennessey. Ditto, I’mSingingtheblues who should be able to win off OR152, but not over this trip. IT would not surprise me to see Quantitativeeasing win today, but then Divers who finished just behind him LTO has a similar chance. Given the ”good” going, I am surprised that GHIZAO runs in this, but his rating of OR154 is (in my opinion) very lenient and he should be 160+. He was not pushed at all LTO after a couple of early errors and Ruby Walsh being in the saddle gives me more confidence. He’s 17/2 with some bookies, and that is too long.
I’m hoping Sanctuaire does not run too big a race in the International hurdle at 3:05 as I reckon his OR150 rating is very exploitable. Let’s hope he’s used as a pacemaker for BRAMPOUR, and drops out early. The Relkeel hurdle at 3:35 should be a near walk-over for OSCAR WHISKY who looks a decent antepost for the Champion Hurdle (if that’s what his target is).
Lingfield has been abandoned as I write this, and there is a further inspection planned at 10:30am at Doncaster

I’ll post this now, and return to Doncaster later if I see a selection there.

Selections
Cheltenham 1:20, HAVINGOTASCOOBYDO, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Cheltenham 2:30, GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 17/2 (Vic Chandler, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Is ROLLING ACES a future Gold Cup winner?

The 399th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day without a firm “blog” selection yesterday, but mine is not a blog that puts up selections just for the sake of it. I wager my own money on each and every selection to the level of £40 a point, and if I can’t find a selection to risk my money on then I’m not going to risk my readers money on it.
I can’t say fairer than that, can I?

Today it is going to be a brief blog as altho’ there are 3 meetings and the one at Huntingdon features the Peterborough Chase, today (Thursday) is the first day of a new venture for me and I am writing this blog on Wednesday evening as I can’t guarantee getting this blog online on Thursday.

As I said, 3 meetings at Huntingdon, Ludlow and Taunton.

The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at 2:00pm should be won by SOMERSBY as he is about 10lb ahead (in my opinion) of his nearest rival which is The Nightingale. If I could get the Racing Post betting forecast odds of 9/4, then I’d make SOMERSBY a 2pt win wager but, as I write, the odds for SOMERSBY are just 7/4 and - while that is still “value” (I reckon he should be odds-on at 4/5) – it is against my principles to recommend a wager at those odds. It may be worth wagering on a straight-forecast: SOMERSBY to beat The Nightingale.

At Ludlow, there is a very interesting chase handicap at 2:40. ROSSBRIN was most unlucky to meet a horse with unlimited stamina LTO, and there is little chance of that tomorrow as most of these are fairly well exposed. Roseneath is up another 8lb for a fairly ordinary win LTO. Inside Dealer strikes me as a horse that prefers trips less than 3-mile. Simply Wings wants the going soft/heavy (it is “good” going). Rockiteer has gone up 9lbs for winning a weak race LTO and he will struggle off OR126. Midnight Haze will also find the going on the quick side for him, but he is an interesting runner who goes well fresh. Cast Cada has won all 3 times he’s raced at this trip, but he usually needs a run and this looks competitive for him. Oscar Prairie has questions to answer after his run LTO, tho’ if he were pulled-up in haste he could be an interesting runner. As for Pigeon Island, is this trip really what he needs? He will be running-on late, but will it be too late? ROSSBRIN is 11/2 (Paddy Power) and that looks more than fair as we know he’s fit, jumps well, goes right-handed, and he runs off the same rating as last week.

Before then, at 1:10pm, we see THE COCKNEY MACKEM return to the track after he unseated LTO. I reckon he is much better than OR122 and so long as we don’t see another novice-style error, he should win this easily as some of the others look handicapped to the hilt on what they’ve shown over fences so far. Vic Chandler go 11/4 and that looks more than fair.

At Taunton, I reckon we will see the next step to eventual grade 1 chase glory of ROLLING ACES from the Paul Nicholls stable. Trainers like Nicholls follow certain paths with their better horses and, so far, ROLLING ACES is following in the footsteps of Denman.

Selections
Ludlow 1:10, THE COCKNEY MACKEM, 1pt win @ 11/4 (Vic Chandler, BOG)
Ludlow 2:40, ROSSBRIN, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thanks for the memories

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

Another day with no firm selection yesterday, but readers cannot say they don’t get decent advice in the narrative.

SECRET EDGE absolutely hacked-up at Fontwell, as I thought he would. I don’t advise wagers at odds under 5/2 as (especially with jump racing) mishaps can happen even to the best horses and that “risk” factor has to be built-in to your wagers. At £40 a point (the stakes I use) I expect a return of £120 from a 3/1 winner, and that is the minimum return I demand. So, to obtain that from SECRET EDGE yesterday I would have had to wager £210 and that, for me, was too great a risk.

I also looked at the opener at Southwell on the all-weather as there had been a significant move on TAKAJAN in the betting from 7/1 to 11/4. As (in my opinion) his true odds were 5/1 he had been “over-egged” and as such, had gone from a wagering opportunity to a laying opportunity. For those who do not understand value, this race was a great example. With “true” odds at 5/1, those who obtained 7/1 were on at great value. If you have a wager on 12 horses at odds of 7/1 whose true odds are 5/1 then (providing you read the market well) you will win twice and lose ten times resulting in an overall profit (at 1pt per wager) of 4pts or 28.57%ROI. That is good business. But, when that “true” 5/1 chance shortens to 11/4, then it is a rock solid laying opportunity. Does that make sense?

Before I move on from yesterday, may I give a big thanks to G-Star Sports Tips who put me onto the 6/1 winner NANNA MAURA at Sedgefield. The Racing Post BF had NANNA MAURA as the 7/4 fav and, for some reason, several others were supported in the market allowing NANNA MAURA to drift to 6/1. Having looked at the form, NANNA MAURA was easily the most talented in the race, and also had the going in her favour; what’s more she was proven at the trip. No other horse met these basic criteria and the RP had it right – she should have been the 7/4 fav. Her Irish-based trainer JJ Lambe does not have the same reputation here in England as the likes of Gordon Elliot and others, but he’s no mug. And I can only think that office punters found the horses sent by Nicky Richards and Lucinda Russell more sexy.

I bought a Racing & Football Outlook yesterday and it’s not a bad read. One feature that I really like (so much so, that I do the same exercise myself) is their Top Of The Form page were they highlight races run when the form has really worked out well. Spotting such races quickly is invaluable for the punter and much–maligned REVE DE SIVOLA who was 5th to Galaxy Rock recently, is one that could soon be in the winners enclosure at decent odds. For instance, the class 5 novice chase at Kelso on 5th November has produce no less than 4 next-time-out winners (NTOW’s). There is no assessment of Irish races tho’ and at the Punchestown meeting of 28th October (and this meeting has produced 13 NTOW’s so far) the handicap hurdle won by Irish Soul has produced 5 NTOW’s – exceptional.

There are two jumps meetings today at Hexham and Leicester. The going at Hexham is heavy (probably very heavy having been under snow for most of yesterday) and I’m giving that meeting a wide berth. Heavy going and the restrictions on use of the whip mean that form (as we know it) goes out of the window. I’m sure others don’t see it that way, but I’m avoiding heavy going meetings until I know the jockeys and horses know how to act on it.

The meeting at Leicester brings back old memories as I won on the 40/1 winner Bubble Boy in the final race of (what is) today’s card in 2009. That was before I was blogging, but I wrote a write-up on the race with Bubble Boy as the selection under my moniker of Wayward Lad on the Betfair forum. That was quite a day as, having referred to my notebook entries for the day, I had win wagers on 6 horses that day and 5 of them won (the loser being Grand Slam Hero in the same race as Bubble Boy, he was 3rd). It was just after I joined twitter and @Mulldog who was one of my first followers (and is still a presence on twitter) could verify that 40/1 winner.

There is no selection today, as the racing doesn’t provide any value.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

There is always tomorrow

The 397th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 21
Winners = 5
Points staked = 26pts
Profit since 1st November 2011 = 17.60pts (ROI = 67.69%)

No firm selection yesterday, but the one race I focussed on resulted in me spotting the winner in INVICTUS who romped away with the race under an enterprising ride from Robert Thornton. He showed excellent tactical speed and jumped like a stag so, hoping the handicapper isn’t too unkind, he can follow-up.

One I missed from the weekend (and omitted to mention yesterday) was WEST END ROCKER who won the Becher Chase at Aintree on Saturday. He was one of my 3 selections for the National on the day, and he was going well early-on till brought-down at Bechers 1st time round. He was beaten by the heavy going in the National Trial at Haydock (won by Silver By Nature) and had showed himself to be progressive before that. He needed a run last season, and he has done again this. Provided he isn’t hammered by the handicapper (ie raised to OR146+) he should remain competitive NTO.

Occasionally, something catches my eye and makes me look back at previous blogs. Last night I read the Official Handicappers blog on the useful BHA website (see adjacent link) and his assessment of the win of ETON RIFLES in a Listed race on the flat over 6-furlongs at Fontainebleu in France on 24th Nov. He (the Official Handicapper) reckoned it was his best performance of the season and rated him OR111. I typed the name ETON RIFLES into my blog search facility and came up with my assessment of his run last April when 5th in the Lincoln handicap “…trying the mile trip for only the 2nd time, the way (he) stayed-on in this highly competitive race while on the “wrong” side of the track suggests that (he) could be well-handicapped if racing in the right conditions”. ETON RIFLES was rated OR94 then. DUBAI HILLS – also mentioned on that blog in April – looks well placed on OR92 for a return to the AW this winter.

Today, we have a couple of jumps meetings at Sedgefield and Fontwell.

If SECRET EDGE cannot win the opening novice hurdle at Fontwell then there is something wrong, but then he’s quoted at odds of 4/7 this morning. There are some other “interesting” races at Fontwell but they are low grade affairs and with the going there being soft it’s a case of which horse can grind out an sustained effort will win.

The Sedgefield meeting is similar to Fontwell, low-grade racing with little to inspire. As such, I’ll leave well alone. Sometimes the best course of action is to keep your money in your wallet as there is always tomorrow.

I’m not a great fan of the All-Weather racing, but in the opener at noon there has been a significant market move on TAKAJAN from 7/1 in to 11/4 as I write. A couple of other bloggers (James Boyle and Longshot Betting – both have links adjacent) have advised wagers on him at 7/1, but clearly the value has gone now. He’s not in the best of stalls, drawn 7 of the 14 runners, and others – such as Suddenly Susan (drawn 2), Wandering Lad (3), Greenhead High (5), and Prince Of Vasa (6) will make not make it easy for TAKAJAN to dominate the race as he will need to, to win. As such, I would be inclined to place-lay him at 1.80 as he’s the sort that’ll likely win or flop. There is no value at 11/4 in him winning (as his “true” win odds are about 5/1), but there is no way he is odds-on to be placed in this race, and I’d price him at more like 2.50 in the place-only market. Therefore, in my opinion, he is a place-lay at 1.80.

There is no selection today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Tremendous 12/1 winner yesterday!

The 395th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 20
Winners = 5
Points staked = 25pts
Profit in month = 18.60pts (ROI = 74.40%)

Tremendous result for the blog yesterday when GOLAN WAY repaid my faith in his form at Aintree last April (when 3rd in the John Smiths Mildmay Novices Chase). That form has become the most reliable of last season’s novice chases (the 1st-3 have now won 4 top-chases between them) and at the time it was “rubbished” by renowned form readers – but not me!
I reckon GOLAN WAY ran just below that form yesterday and recorded a 158 performance (I rated his run at Aintree at 159) whereas BOSTONS ANGEL matched his form of the RSA Chase.
What it means is that QUITO DE LA ROQUE really is a proper 165+ chaser (maybe 170+) and should be under 8/1 for the Gold Cup. You have been told, and the facts stand-up for themselves.
I was disappointed with SIZING SYMPHONY, but he really should not have been so long in the odds as 10/1 and clearly, there was something amiss with him – which does not bode well for SIZING EUROPE today.

Anyway, 11pts profit on the day from 2pts staked. What is disappointing is that from the 80-odd regular visitors to the site (and I’m talking about those who have visited more than 10 times) none have (yet) made a donation for the tremendous performance of my selections since 1st November – 18.60pts profit which is a 74.40% return on investment (25pts). I wager to £40 a point and I am £744 in profit for the month.

Onto today, we have a busy day with 4 top meetings at Aintree, Sandown, Chepstow, and Wetherby.
At Aintree in the 12:35, FEATHERBED LANE could be a burgeoning talent but over an extra half-mile today he may be found out.

The Becher Chase at 2:10 will be a spectacle, and will also be the 1st race over the National fences televised by Channel 4 Racing (which has to be the future). Good luck to Channel 4. From my alert list, ANOTHER PALM is a horse I’ve noted as having abundant stamina and usually runs up with the leaders. That will hold him in good stead and odds of 10/1 (Chandlers, Bet365, Hills) suggest he’s worth a small each-way wager.

Today’s premier meeting is at Sandown, and in the Tingle Creek Chase at 3:05, I reckon you can oppose the fav Sizing Europe (see comments above). One of my 3-to-Follow for this jumps season is WISHFUL THINKING and this trip and course will suit him perfectly. If he can’t win today, he won’t be a Grade 1 horse this season. Sportingodds are offering to refund your stakes (up to £50) if Sizing Europe wins and, as he’s the only horse I can see in this field beating WISHFUL THINKING, then I’d take the 11/4 on offer with them. Kauto Stone has potential, but does not have the form in the book.

The “Badger” form was given a huge boost by Benbane Head yesterday (was 2nd to GOLAN WAY) and so I reckon MEANUS DANDY can take the London National at 3:40. Do It For Dalkey is effectively up 18lb for his LTO win and I feel that is too much and he’s facing top performers here. MEANUS DANDY is a course winner (as is Any Currency) and he could be 10lb better than his OR140 rating – which cannot be said of the others. Odds of 11/2 are very fair, as I’d have him the 7/2 fav.

Chepstow has heavy ground and that fills me with dread as it is a testing track at the best of times. It could make for harrowing viewing on the tv.

I have no time to study Wetherby and so no selections for that meeting.

Selections:
Sandown 3:40, MEANUS DANDY, 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Two long-shots for Sandown

The 394th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

What a day for the blog – yesterday I discussed 3 races and found 2 winners at SP’s of 2/1 and 15/2 plus a 3rd horse who was a neck 2nd at 6/1, and I named none of them as firm selections. Sometimes (and yesterday was one of them) I kick myself for not having enough strength in my own opinions. Just a point win on each of those 3 and I’d have been 8.50pts in profit on the day for 3pts staked. It is the reason why I put in my narrative, so that readers can take my thoughts and opinions and use them to strengthen their own views. I do not take these “winners” into my profit & loss calculations (I wish I did) so my blog is transparent and bears scrutiny; but hey! It’s a lot better having to read some reasoning rather than just a list of horses names, isn’t it?

Before I move on, can I just say that ROSSBRIN was most unlucky yesterday to meet a horse who stays forever running in his debut chase; No Principles. I will support ROSSBRIN again as he jumped his fences very low and at speed, as such he could prove best at around 2m5f. No Principles is a previous course winner at Market Rasen and made-up a lot of ground (despite being impeded by the faller at the 2nd-last) over the final half-mile, he could be one for the marathon chases.

On to today’s racing and we have a grand meeting at Sandown for a Friday. Nicky Henderson can do no wrong at the moment and, as such, his novice Semi Colon will start at short odds for his chase debut in the 1:30 there. Clearly an improving hurdler, this will be different and for all the Henderson talents he cannot guarantee his novice chasers take to the jumps. There are a couple of proven novices in LEXICON LAD and Loch Ba, and altho’ Loch Ba is weighted to reverse their recent meeting, LEXICON LAD looks a horse with potential over the jumps.

Next up, the 2m4f hurdle novice hurdle would not disgrace the Festival itself. Unbeaten Fingal Bay was very impressive LTO, and Simonsig is an unknown – talented, but how good? Jump City will need to improve a lot on what he’s shown so far over a trip that may well stretch his stamina. There are no question-marks over SIZING SYMPHONY and the trip and going will be in his favour. His form from Cheltenham (Peckhamecho in 3rd has won both his races since and is rated OR132, yet was btn 17-lengths in receipt of 8lb) and Fairyhouse looks rock solid, and odds of 9/1 (William Hill) seriously under-estimate his chance.

At 2:30 we have the “Future Stars” chase over 3-mile & 110 yards, and this (in my opinion) hangs on how you rate last year’s novice chase form. I was on BOSTONS ANGEL when he won the RSA at the Festival, and it must be remembered that he is the only horse to beat Quito De La Roque over fences. He was travelling and jumping well before a rare error unshipped his rider LTO and he is a lot better than his rating of OR152 which seriously under-estimates his ability and achievements. He will prove in this that he is a 160+ chaser but, such is his task at the weights, he will need to be at the very top of his game to win today. The reason is GOLAN WAY is better than OR146 and (on a line thru’ Quito De La Roque) could prove up to the task today being in-receipt of 6lb from Bostons Angel. Odds of 10/1 (Ladbrokes) are plain daft given trainer Sheena West’s ability and that the horse is fit from a recent hurdle race.

Exeter features the Devon Marathon chase and Power Pack Jack will no doubt try and make-all as he did LTO. However, I always respect David Pipe’s entries in these long-distance races which he likes to target (since sending Lord Atterbury to be 3rd in the National when still a point-to-point trainer). SHAKING HANDS comes here fresh from a 269-day break and was the fav (at 6/1) for the Devon National here last March. I would be hoping for more than the 6/1 on offer tho’ as these sort of races are a test of strength, not form, and what looks like winning at the 2nd-last could end up a distant 3rd at the post. If I can get 8/1+ then he’ll be a (small) eachway wager.

Selections:
After yesterday, I’m going in with;
Sandown 1:55, SIZING SYMPHONY, 1pt win @ 9/1 (William Hill, BOG)
Sandown 2:30, GOLAN WAY, 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, BOG)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Venetia Williams back on form

The 393rd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Blog Performance 1st November 2011 onwards:-
Selections = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

A new month and the Jumps Season is developing nicely with the novice chasers looking a bit above those we saw in the UK last season. There is “talk” that last season’s novices are a poor bunch, but you have to remember that 2 of the 3 novice championships at the Cheltenham Festival were won by Irish horses (Boston’s Angel and Noble Prince) and possibly the best Irish novice chaser of last season – Quito De La Roque – missed Cheltenham and went to Aintree and Punchestown and won both of the graded novice chases there, and then came out and beat Sizing Europe at Down Royal early last month. In my opinion, today’s top “English” chasers are not within a stone of the best (Denman and Kauto Star) of recent times and they are vulnerable. This month should see the first cracks appear and I can see the arrogance of some English writers turning (hopefully) to humility and respect.

No selections yesterday, altho’ I did highlight David Pipe’s only runner of the day POOLE MASTER who was 5/2 until 10 mins before the off, and won at an SP of 11/8.

Also of interest was that Venetia Williams found the winners enclosure with 2 of her 4 runners (at SP’s of 14/1 and 4/1) and her stable – after its customary slow start – is now firing on all cylinders and her runners must be respected, whatever the odds. Venetia has another 4 runners out today.

This afternoon’s meeting at Leicester is all hurdles, and I’m giving that one a miss.

At Wincanton, Paul Nicholls has only one runner out today – Sang Bleu in the 1:40. My only “alert list” horse also runs in this race, Duke Of Lucca, and he may be the value. Sang Bleu was not a good jumper when last seen over fences and, along with Habbie Simpson, has something to prove today. DUKE OF LUCCA has shown he can jump a fence and has been unlucky to meet a couple of good novices in his 2 races this autumn. He should be the fav, and the 2/1 fav at that; as such, at 11/4 (Vic Chandler and others) he is the value especially as he has the going and trip in his favour.

The next race on the card at 2:10 looks a tough one to sort out the winner in. Just The Job could run away with this again as he did LTO, but I cannot see that happening. I can’t see Magot De Grugy repeating his LTO win as he’s a heavy ground horse, and good-to-soft is too slow for Upham Atom. This trip is too far for Nudge And Nurdle, and that leaves Tarquinius and Master Cobbler. If he’s fit, Tarquinius is thrown-in here, but I reckon MASTER COBBLER could be the one to build on his run LTO as this trip could be his best.

The race won by Wyke Hill at Chepstow on 22nd October has thrown-up 4 x NTOW’s (next time out winners); Wyke Hill won again, That’lldoboy has won twice, Wester Ros has won, and so has ROSSBRIN who runs today at Market Rasen in the 2:25. Unfortunately, every man and his dog seems to have spotted this formline and he’s 7/2 across the board. He may have been raised 13lb for his LTO win, but he looks to have plenty of stamina and he can jump – and if he were with a top stable he’d be 7/4 for this. Night In Milan looks the one most likely to try and give him a race.

I will probably regret this but I’m not going to put up a selection today. I will have a small place-only wager to cover a larger win wager on MASTER COBBLER, and if there is a market move for either Henderson’s or McCain’s enties in the Market Rasen 2:25 - and I can get 4/1 or longer on ROSSBRIN - (hopefully, I’ll get 9/2) then I’ll have a wager on him.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Blog performance: 1st November 2010 to 31st October 2011
Profit = 15.9525pts
Return on Investment = 8.27% (total stakes, 193pts)

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort'men

The 392nd edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 23.5525pts
Return on Investment = 10.90% (total stakes, 216pts)

Final day of November, and a great result for the month; the full results being:-
1st Nov, GHIZAO, 2pts win @ 11/4; unplaced …2.00pts lost
7th Nov, YOU KNOW YOURSELF, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
7th Nov, KRISTALLO, 1pt win @ 6/1; unplaced …1.00pts lost
7th Nov, SARANDO, 2pts win @ 7/2; WON …7.00pts PROFIT
8th Nov, GOING WRONG, 1pt win @ 4/1; WON …4.00pts PROFIT
9th Nov, BUFFALO BOB, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
9th Nov, SANGFROID, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
11th Nov, CRACK AWAY JACK, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, BALTHAZAR KING, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
12th Nov, LOOSEN MY LOAD, 1pt ew; unplaced …2.00pts lost
12th Nov, WOLF MOON, 1pt win; lost (3rd) …1.00pts lost
15th Nov, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost
16th Nov, SIGNALMAN, 1pt win; lost (2nd) …1.00pts lost
19th Nov, I’MSINGINGTHEBLUES, 1pt ew; WON @ 8/1 …9.60pts PROFIT
21st Nov, MIDNIGHT APPEAL, 1pt win; lost (3rd of 5) …1.00pts lost
25th Nov, AIGLE D'OR, 2pts win; unplaced …2.00pts lost
26th Nov, WYKE HILL, 1pt win; Fell …1.00pts lost
26th Nov, HUMBIE, 1pt win; unplaced …1.00pts lost

Selections for November 2011 = 18
Winners = 4
Points staked = 23pts
Profit in month = 7.60pts (ROI = 33.04%)

As can be seen, I am no follower of the fav’s and short-priced horses so the strike-rate of winners to runners is not huge – but, at the end of the day, I’m in profit.

There has been no blog since Sunday as the racing has been dire. To be fair, today’s racing is not much better.

At Hereford, Paul Nicholls perseveres with Escort’men, so he must think that the horse has a future over fences. Always best watched these novice chases, especially when horses are jumping a fence for the 1st time in public. One I will be keeping an eye on is TIGER O’TOOLE who is not a bad hurdler (OR136) and his usualy style of running (held-up) could aid him here today over the first couple of fences by enabling to have a look at them and get into a rhythm. He’s 10/1 generally, and I’d rather have a “fiver” on him than risk £25 on one of the 7/4 joint-favs who head the market with the prospect of a similar return.

Later at Hereford, there is an interesting 2-mile h’cap chase at 2:50pm. The fav is Bradford Boris who is on my alert list, but I feel this trip is a bit on the short side for him and that he would prefer another half-mile. He will need to lead and set a decent pace to expose the others in the race, however his jumping hasn’t been fluent in the past. As such, I’m looking elsewhere in the race and Evan Williams (also trainer of Tiger O’Toole) sends the unexposed WESTER ROSS for this. Williams has his stable in top form (8 wins from 21 rnrs in past 14-days) and he has a 21% strike rate with chasers at Hereford. WESTER ROSS appreciated the drop to 2-mile LTO (he does not stay much further) and even tho’ he’s got a 7lb penalty, he is officially 2lb well-in for this. Odds of 9/2 look fair.

David Pipe sends out only one runner today – Poole Master in the 12:40 at Uttoxeter, interesting!

Neil Mulholland also has only one runner today – Big Knickers in the 3:40 at Uttoxeter. The horse looks well handicapped on his run when 2nd to E Street Boy but whether he will stay 3-mile today is the question.

No selections today, I will choose to end the month of November in profit.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Hennessey Gold Cup ay Newbury

The 390th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 25.5525pts
Return on Investment = 11.94% (total stakes, 214pts)

Yesterday’s selection, AIGLE D’OR, ran a stinker and was well beaten. The only consolation was that I read the market right as he started the 6/4 fav. I was also wrong about Sivola De Sivola in the 3-mile hurdle as I thought he was so unlikely to get the trip that I place-laid him at “evens” on the exchanges. So, 2pts lost on the day – let’s move on.

It’s the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury, which is 2nd only to the Grand National in chasing handicaps; in fact this race is a great form-guide to the Grand National, so watch and take note. Regular readers will know that on 7th November I recommended taking the 40/1 about SARANDO for this, and I am not going to swap allegiance now: he’s 14/1 generally (he is 20/1 with Corals). I really think he has an excellent chance in this race, despite a 4lb penalty for his LTO win.

On a busy day like today, 4 meetings at Newbury, Newcastle, Bangor and Towcester, it is impossible for me to review every race; so I drop back onto my horse alerts for guidance.

At Newcastle, it is the Fighting Fifth Grade 1 hurdle and tho’ Binocular should win this if at his peak, he usually needs a race and so the value call is race-fit OVERTURN at 3/1. At 3:30, the 3-mile h’cap chase looks to be an opportunity for the improving HUMBIE (a 3 parts bro’ to Denman) as he will enjoy the going and get this trip. That can’t be said for Minella Theatre, and Hey Big Spender will need a personal best to win this off OR150 giving 26lb to HUMBIE who is 6/1.

At Bangor, I was on WOLF MOON when he last ran, and he is well placed to recoup losses today in the 1:20, a 3-mile h’cap chase. However, Alan Kings horses are running well (if not winning) in recent days, and Quotica De Poyans has been gambled on this morning.

Nothing on my alert list is running at Towcester.

Onto Newbury and, in the 1:30, if were not for the Henderson runner Master Fiddle then WYKE HILL would probably be under 3/1 for this. Not every Henderson horse wins (take my selection y’day!) and this trip is a doubt for Master Fiddle as his half-bro’ did not get it. WYKE HILL will likely make all and has absolutely no stamina doubts, he also sets a good pace. Therefore, odds of 6/1 look very generous.
In the 2:05, there are 2 from my alert list in DREAM FUNCTION ( a sister to Captain Chris) and RAYA STAR. This is a tough race for me to crack, and of the two I’d probably go for RAYA STAR, but this is a no-bet race for me.
BIG BUCKS will win the Long Distance Hurdle. Full stop.
I’m already on SARANDO in the Hennessey at 3:10, but from my alert list I reckon MUIRHEAD who won the Munster National in October, has a great eachway chance in a race that will play to his strengths, and at 25/1 with a bookie paying quarter-odds to 5-places (Bet365) he will be staying-on like a train come the final mile.
In the last race on the card, my alert list suggests PERSIAN GATES. He fell LTO when meeting Fistral Beach on 6lb worse terms than today. Unfortunately, he is apt to hit 1 or 2 fences and Newbury takes no prisoners. Another no-bet race for me.

Selection:
Newbury 1:30, WYKE HILL, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)
Newcastle 3:30, HUMBIE, 1pt win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, best odds guaranteed)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

The money is going down today!

The 389th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, altho’ I put in a good word for KENTFORD GREY LADY and she ran out a comfortable winner at 15/8. She could be worth noting, as her dam won the Mares’ novices hurdle final (listed race) over 2m5f in 2004, and was rated OR112. Also, her dam’s half-bro was 4th in the Racing Post Chase and was rated OR135 as a chaser – so there is plenty of talent in the dam-side.
GRANDS CRUS had no problems in his novice chase and remains on-course for a Festival appearance – but which race?
Another mentioned on the blog was THE COCKNEY MACKEM and he fell mid-race with a very “novice” jump (took off too early and landed on the fence). As such, he should stay on OR122 and is – in my opinion – on a lenient mark.
The handicap chace that I looked at was won by the 5yo and bottom-weight THAT’LLDOBOY, trained by Paul Nicholls. This one is clearly on the upgrade still, but the opposition fell away rapidly over the final fences (Buffalo Bob is well-off his best form) so let’s hope the handicapper does not go overboard on this effort.

There are 3 jumps meetings today, but I will only concern myself with that at Newbury as Doncaster and Musselburgh don’t have wagering opportunities (that’s me being polite!). That said, the 2:35 at Doncaster looks to have some potential (class 3 chase over 2m3f), but good-to-firm going at this time of year scares me a bit. Also, Tarvini (2:00, 3-mile h’cap hurdle) remains well handicapped on old form (has won off OR120, and runs off OR110 today with a 10lb claimer riding).

Newbury has what looks to be an ordinary meeting for the eve of the Hennessey Gold Cup, but the novice chase at 1:35 will be great to watch. Will Bobs Worth take to fences? Can Cue Card jump a fence at speed? Has Spirit River “grown” since last season when a novice chasing flop? Me, I will be having a sneaky couple of quid on MAD MOOSE at 20/1 as he’s a rock-solid OR137 chaser having 6 chase runs (won 2, placed in 3) under his belt and not fallen.
I’ll give the novice h’cap chase a miss and look at the 2:45, the 3-mile h’cap hurdle (class 3). My alert list notes tell me Caddie Master has not stopped improving, but on good-to-soft or worse he’s 0 from 4, but on good going or quicker he’s 3 from 5. OK, he was only btn a short-head on soft going LTO, but the race was not run in a fast time – as such, I think he discounts that form and that of Frontier Dancer. Paul Nicholls 1st-string Like Minded has not shaped like a OR130 horse, so I think he’s got too much on his plate. Sivola De Sivola did not stay 2m5f LTO, so 3-mile has to be a question-mark for him. Artic Court is Jim Goldie’s first runner here, and he’s never had a winner south of Bangor-on-Dee, so that has to be a negative. I don’t think Carribs Leap is up to this level. The Shy Man runs best at this time of year and won well LTO, so he could well be involved but I can’t see him winning. Kasbadali is thought to go best right-handed and is another with stamina to prove. One I like the look of is the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string, PRINCE TOM with 7lb claimer Harry Derham riding. He ran a couple of great races last season, is proven to stay this trip and ran well in a top handicap LTO in a fast time. At 12/1 he looks a value wager, but this is such a competitive race I’m going to bottle-out again and pass on this one.

In the 3:15, last year’s winner AIGLE D’OR has only had this race as his target since running at the Galway Festival. Trainer Nicky Henderson has an awful record in Ireland (why does he bother going?) so I can ignore that run and the earlier one at Punchestown. His Festival run was not as bad as his placing suggests as he did not cope well with the large field of 20 runners. But this horse (2nd btn a head in the Greatwood Hurdle of 2008 with 11st 5lb) has a touch of class about him. As such, I reckon he will beat Rileyev. It is a tough induction for Hold Fast so odds about him of 4/1 are no value at all. Oh Crick could be a contender if recapturing his best form of 2-years ago off OR139 (was rated OR160 after a 5th in QMCC of 2010), but that’s unlikely. AIGLE D’OR is 9/4 with several bookies, and I reckon he should be more like 6/4 as he will be well prepared for this race. He is going to be a 2pts win wager (see my adjacent page with total record of 2pts win wagers).

Selection:
Newbury 3:15, AIGLE D’OR, 2pts win @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes, best odds guaranteed)

Also, take a look at a previous blog page for 7th November - are you on SARANDO at 40/1 for the Hennessey tomorrow?

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Grands Crus to make another step towards the Arkle

The 388th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday as I managed to persuade myself that recommending a wager on MONSIEUR JORDAIN was not a good idea despite him being an improving 5yo chaser who was guaranteed to stay the 2m 6f &110 yard trip. He went and won at 10/1 benefiting from the last fence fall of the favourite Dusky Bob; but that one was probably tiring anyway (the reason for the fall?) and may not held onto the lead anyhow. At least I know I’m on the right track reading the form-lines as I read that race near perfect. MONSIEUR JORDAIN was only 7/1 in the morning when I posted my blog, which was a big reason why he wasn’t a selection. I managed to obtain 12.50 on Betfair just before the off, which is equivalent to 11/1, and I traded out my stake at 3.10.

We have 3 jumps cards at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter today, so let’s see what’s in store.
At Newbury, I’m looking to oppose the fav in the opener with Emma Lavelle’s KENTFORD GREY LADY as those 2 that beat here LTO are above average, and this is a much easier task. Next-up, the novice chase at 1:00 has a Henderson chasing debutant in Celtus and that should allow one from my alert list THE COCKNEY MACKEM to go off at a bit of value. He easily has the best chasing form in this race and should be odds-on; instead, we could get 9/4. Edgardo Sol who beat him a nose LTO has won again since and is rated OR134, and THE COCKNEY MACKEM is on a par with that. At 1:35, the novice h’cap hurdle over 2m5f has been won by some decent horses in recent years and I have PROMISED WINGS on my alert list after he lost LTO by demolishing the final hurdle. That said, I’m not sure an extra furlong will be to his good, and the fav Sentimental Journey could prove hard to beat in what looks a competitive race.
GRANDS CRUS reappears in the 2:10 and it is most unlikely that he won’t win this, tho’ Viking Blond will be no pushover. It’s hard to know what to make of Sonofvic until he jumps a fence in public.
Buffalo Bob won the 2:45 last year, but his trainer Kim Bailey has his stable in poor form and he ran a stinker LTO (with my money on and as a selection for the blog). Current fav Zarrafakt hacked-up on his seasonal debut last season but then flopped in this and again in the Spring. I don’t think he can be relied upon, and neither can Rackham Lerouge. That’lldoboy was the main beneficiary of tardy jumping by his rivals LTO and that form could be unreliable. Leading Contender does not do well in fields of more than 6 runners, and so that brings me to PIRAYA. He stays this trip, will appreciate the going and he has run well at this meeting for the past 2 seasons (he was 3rd over 2m4f off OR142 here last year). He ran well on his seasonal debut last week, and David Pipe is likely to have aimed him at the race so he should have come on for that run. It looks a tough ask with 11st 12lb, but no recent winner has carried less than 11st 5lb so he’s got trends on his side.
Nothing takes my eye at Taunton, and at Uttoxeter I want to see CROSS KENNON win the beginners chase but the rest of the card leaves me cold.

Do I have a selection today? After yesterday, I should go with my conviction and have a punt on PIRAYA, but with only 1 win from 20 starts in the UK he would not be a confident selection.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Lastly, a recommendation to readers of the blog to visit G-Star Sports Tips (http://gstarfrankels.blogspot.com) who gave the following winners from yesterday: Hazy Tom, Best Lover, Always Bold, Restaurateur and Bailadeira - that’s 5 winners from 7 selections. What’s more, they are not just names on a blank page, each selection has some narrative as to why it has been chosen.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Is the 'swinger' value?

The 387th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

No selections for the blog yesterday, but I was interested in the result of the 3-mile h’cap chase at Lingfield. This turned out to be a cracker of a race with 7 or 8 still in the hunt at the 4th last fence, after which Felix de Giles sent Wide Receiver, the 100/30 fav, on into a clear lead. They came to grief at the 3rd last fence when toppling over on landing. It’s debateable whether Wide Receiver would have won but I reckon he would as he’s won over 3m3f at Fontwell, so he wasn’t lacking stamina over this 3-mile trip. The race was won by chasing debutant Monbeg Dude, who travelled very well in-behind the leaders and he looks good to follow-up as with a winning margin of just a head over Goring One, the handicapper cannot be too harsh. Any stamina doubts about Goring One were dispelled and, on reflection, I’m putting all 3 named horses onto my alert list. I was also interested to learn that the Tote “swinger” for 2nd & 3rd paid £14.60 – I would not have selected Monbeg Dude going into yesterday’s race, but Goring One and Pete The Feat were both on my radar.

Racing today looks uninteresting, and I’m only taken by the 3:05 at Wetherby, a class 4 h’cap chase over 2m 6f & 110 yards. The 5yo MONSIEUR JOURDAIN was beaten on the run-in LTO by Lockstown, who needs every yard of 3-miles (and more), but he looked like winning jumping the last fence and continued to pull-away from the fav (proven stayer Coppers Gold). Today’s fav Dusky Bob has never won from 4 attempts beyond 2m4f & 110 yards, so he may find stamina an issue today even tho’ he should handle the good-to-soft going. I don’t know what to make of Quel Ballistic, but he looks harshly treated on OR107. Banoge is a one-paced plodder who wants the going hock-deep in mud. Quel Bruere will stay 3-mile and should guarantee a fair pace, but again looks one-paced at the business end. AP McCoy returns to the saddle on I’m A Decider and altho’ his last 3 wins have been on good-to-firm and he flopped LTO when running on heavy, he has won on soft going and shown form on good-to-soft before now, and he should not be 12/1 for this. Allenard’s 3rd to Wide Receiver (see remarks above) could be good enough to see him in contention as the drop in trip LTO wasn’t in his favour, and he’s another who should not be 12/1 for this. Dawn Ride loves Wetherby, but his jumping is poor in fields larger than 6 runners and he cannot be advised. Dystonia’s Revenge has no chance. The race should be between Quel Bruere, Monsieur Jourdain, I’m A Decider and Allenard (should the fav, Dusky Bob, not stay the trip) and I cannot split them, so I will probably play the “place-only” markets on these.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Forgive me Father

The 386th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

Profit since 1st November 2010 = 27.5525pts
Return on Investment = 13.00% (total stakes, 212pts)

What a tremendous day for Nicky Henderson yesterday.
He sent out 8 runners and had 7 winners, as he had 2 horses declared for the opener at Kempton (won by Darlan) and withdrew Wise Move at the start. This follows his 5 winners from 7 runners on Friday. It is a pity that he was not rewarded better with prize-money. Had Henderson placed a £500 accumulator on his 7 runners (and winners) he would have taken more off the bookies than he won in prize money. Henderson sends out 2 today, both run at Lingfield and I would expect both to win, but they are at such short odds I cannot recommend a wager. Remember, in jumps racing anything can happen and that element of “risk” has to be taken into account, for instance 1/8 chance Mossley nearly came down at the 14th fence in the 3-runner race that he won.

My sole selection yesterday MIDNIGHT APPEAL ran without any zip. It was an unexplainable run from the horse, but he never looked happy and his jumping was not confident. As he has been progressive (till yesterday) I will give him a chance to recoup the loss.

Today’s two meetings, at Lingfield and Sedgefield over the jumps, look ordinary. I’ve been thru’ the card at Sedgefield and there’s nothing that takes my eye. Pretty much the same at Lingfield, tho’ the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:20 is a puzzle. I would be wanting to oppose the fav Wide Receiver in this, especially if he goes off at under 3/1, as he won his last two races by wide margins pretty much simply because he outstayed the opposition. There will be no lacking opposition that stays the trip in this race, and Wide Receiver has been raised 14lb for his LTO win. Don’t get me wrong, he should start the fav on known form, but there are a couple in the race who may well upset him. Goring One is on the upgrade and is expected to stay this trip, but he’s also been raised 10lb for a facile win LTO. Anna Newton-Smith, trainer of Goring One, also has Pete The Feat in this race and he has no stamina issues. He would prefer the going soft tho’ as would most of the others. The one that takes my eye is FATHER PROBUS who will be ridden by Paddy Brennan. Brennan rides 2 for Fergal O’Brien today and he’s won on 2 of his 4 rides in chases for Fergal. Last time out, FATHER PROBUS split 2 next-time-out winners in what was his debut chase. Admittedly, he would prefer the going to be a bit softer, but then so would the fav Wide Receiver. FATHER PROBUS is 8/1 with Ladbrokes and I can see him running a big race, but I think I’d want 10’s before having an eachway wager on him.

As such, no recommended wagers today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Remember!
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad.