Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Day 1

It's what we've all been waiting for and it can't come soon enough.

At 1:30pm the roar of the crown will herald the start of the Cheltenham Festival!

There may be a few old friends and grizzled warriors missing from the rosta, but this year's festival has all the makings of being one of the most competitive we've had in recent years. We thought last year's novices were a decent bunch, but this year's novice hurdlers and chasers look a cut-above.

Before we get stuck into the runners & riders for Day 1 of the Festival a quick reminder that the most important Festival trends to take account of are:-

·         The performance of "Last Time Out" (LTO) winners;

·         Weight carried in handicaps;

·         The number of days since a horse last ran.

 

1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle, 5yo's plus (2-miles & 110 yards)

This is always an eagerly anticipated race, and not just because it opens the Cheltenham Festival.

This race rarely goes to a horse with an SP longer than 14/1, so concentrate on those at the head of the market, tho' with only 12 runners (the smallest field in years) it'll be a right bookies-benefit if a rank outsider wins, especially as 2 of the 12 shouldn't be in the race.

The race-fay My Tent Or Yours has obvious claims and would not look out of place in the Champion Hurdle. But, we've had similar horses fail in this race before and 6/4 is skinny. Jezki has been off too long coming into this race (of the last 13 winners, 11 had run their previous race no more that 42-days previous (ie. on or after the 29^th January 2013), and Un Atout is light on experience (in 2012, the 1^st-4 all had the benefit of at least 3 previous hurdle runs). Dodging Bullets was my early selection @ 14/1 in my Bulletin and I'm on at ½pt eachway. I'm expecting a good effort from him but perhaps only placed as Ruby Walsh rides Champagne Fever. It's very disappointing that Melodic Rendevous does not take part in this race (the one older horse in 2012 was the 7yo Prospect Wells who came in 5^th). I'm expecting Champagne Fever to be the best of the Irish challenge. Henderson's River Maigue just doesn't look good enough. It's not an easy race, and I'm not adding to my ½pt eachway @ 14/1 on DODGING BULLETS so - if you are not already on - take the 14/1 that's available this morning (Stan James & Bet365 are BOG).

 

2:05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, (2-miles)

The "Arkle" is one of my favourite races, and I've had some good wins on Tiday Bay, Forpadydeplaster and Cue Card (yes, I was on him at 3/1 without Sprinter Sacre last year – huge value). Class as a hurdler pays dividends as a novice chaser and this year we will have 2 high-class hurdlers in the race: Simonsig (hurdle rating OR160), Overturn (Hurdle OR164).  Which will win? The Arkle is usually run at a searing pace and, on undulating track like Cheltenham, it is stamina sapping. As such, I also like my selection to have winning form in a chase further than 2-miles.

Only 7 runners for this, and I don't think there is much between the two favourites, but I reckon the value is with OVERTURN, mainly as he's a front-runner and will give Simonsig a severe jumping test, something I reckon he's yet to have.  In what effectively looks a "match" race, as I'd have these two as 6/5 joint-fav's on good ground, although on this soft going the advantage is just with SImonsig, at 4/1 you cannot ignore OVERTURN. The other 5 are just running for place money.

Selection: OVERTURN ½pt win @ 4/1 (available generally, use BOG bookmaker)

 

2:40 Festival Handicap Chase (3-miles & 110 yards)

This is perhaps my favourite handicap of the jumps season (excluding the Grand National) and I came very close to finding the winner last year nominating Fruity O'Rooney at 20/1 as my eachway selection on the morning of the race, and he ran 2^nd having led over the final fence.

Including the 2012 winner, none of the last 13 winners have been rated higher than OR143 and, prior to Bensalem winning in 2011 with 11st 2lb, you had to go back to 1997 to find the previous winner of this race carrying a weight greater than 11st.

Those who received my bulletin will know that wagers in this on On Trend, Monbeg Dude and Chartreux are lost as they've chosen other targets. LOCH BA was named in the bulletin when he was 25/1 and he's best-price now at 12/1 and looks to hold a decent chance.

With 7 of the last 10 winners priced at odds under 8/1 it pays to look at those at the head of the market, but I don't like any of them. Our Mick (7/1) really should have had another run (or two); and Fruity O'Rooney (10/1) looks held by the handicapper. The Package (16/1) will be thereabouts but he always seems to arrive too late on the scene. Three has been a gamble on Merry King (7/1 from 12/1) but he may just be short on chasing experience having had only 4 runs, and the last of those was before Christmas! I do like the look of LOCH BA who won at Newbury LTO and looked a potential decent chaser, and tho' that form has taken a few knocks since, it still has an edge about it as he won so easily that day. 

There are 4 LTO winners in the race; Loch Ba, Cloudy Too (20/1), Nuts N Bolts (25/1), and Monkerty Tunkerty (20/1). The latter won the same veterans' race Chief Dan George did before winning this and he holds an eachway chance in this. Both Cloudy Too and Nuts N Bolts will need to prove their stamina for this trip, as they've both failed at 3-mile before.

Of the others, TOUR DES CHAMPS (28/1) has a great chance off OR139 if his jumping holds up as he looks a 150+ chaser in the making as he's not far off being in the RSA chase on Wednesday and will not fail for lack of stamina.

Those who received the Bulletin are on LOCH BA at 25/1, and he's worth a further ½pt eachway @ 12/1; and I'll also have a ¼pt eachway about TOUR DES CHAMPS @ 28/1.

Selections:

LOCH BA: ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Bet365 pay 5-places eachway & BOG)

TOUR DES CHAMPS ¼pt eachway @ 25/1 (Bet365 pay 5-places eachway & BOG)

 

3:20 Champion Hurdle (2-miles & 110 yards)

A small but select field for this race with only 9 runners declared, but 3 are Champion Hurdle winners – Rock On Ruby (2012), Hurricane Fly (2011) and Binocular (2010). For me, this race does not hang on whether Hurricane Fly really is one of the best hurdlers we've seen in the past 50 years, but which horse will cope best on the soft ground. Personally, I think Hurricane Fly managed to win in a year that was below standard in having only himself and Peddlers Cross of Champion Hurdle standard (Binocular had been withdrawn and stable companion Oscar Whisky ran 3^rd) running.

Hurricane Fly will have no problem on the soft ground and any lack of pace will be in his favour. That said, in my opinion the best hurdler in the race is last year's winner ROCK ON RUBY. He comes into this race with proven ability (having won the race last year) but also having shown LTO that he's just as good as ever. The horse that may well follow ROCK ON RUBY home is the 5yo Countrywide Flame. Many statisticians reckon 5yo's have a poor record in the Champion Hurdle, and it is a big ask for a 5yo to win the race; but those that do compete usually run well and run better than expected, and I can see Countrywide Flame taking 2^nd place. I recommended a 1pt win wager on ROCK ON RUBY to those who received my Bulletin when he was priced at odds of 6/1.  He's currently at odds of 5/1 but as the ground is possibly against him I'm not inclined to invest more.

 

4:00 Cross Country Handicap Chase (3-miles & 7-furlongs)

I make no secret that this is not my favourite race and it's one that I think has no place at the Festival.  If the authorities ever make the Festival 5-days, then we will have another 6 odd-ball races like this to put up with. If I had my way, I would lose this race altogether and pull the Centenary Novice Handicap Chase forward into the vacant slot.

No selection

 

4:40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle (2-miles & 4-furlongs)

This is another race that is out of place at the Festival. Take out QUEVEGA and this race would be very ordinary in my opinion, and not up to Festival standard. Last year, the runner-up was Kentford Grey Lady with an official rating or OR134, and I'm expecting the same 1^st & 2^nd this year.

No selection in this race, but you may want to have a small forecast on QUEVEGA to beat Kentford Grey Lady.

 

5:15 Centenary Novices Handicap Chase (2-miles & 4½-furlongs)

I think it is a great shame that organisers have placed this as the last race on a 7 race card preceded by a couple of races that really should be run elsewhere. I would really like to see this race brought forward in the card and given more prominence. This is a very competitive race and a real head scratcher. No horse has won this at odds longer than 14/1 so the market is a good guide. As such, I feel it is between 2 of those at the head of the market; THE DRUIDS NEPHEW @ 7/1 and SHANGANI @ 8/1. I really cannot split them and it would not surprise me to see them fighting-out the finish. SHANGANI is the in top-form, yet THE DRUIDS NEPHEW has huge potential being a year younger at 6yo. There is another factor: JOHNS SPIRIT who ran a clunker LTO at Cheltenham over this trip on heavy ground but, before that, ran a cracker when beaten only by Katenko over 3-mile at Sandown on soft ground. At 16/1, he could be staying-on strong in a race where stamina may be a winning asset. This is to tricky to split them and I may "perm" all 3 in Tote "swingers".

 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

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Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

 

 

Dynaste goes for the Jewson Chase

I spent a good bit of yesterday preparing my draft blogs for Cheltenham this week and most of my wagers are either already in place or planned and awaiting the final declarations and knowledge of the odds. There have been some developments over the past couple of days, most notably DYNASTE being confirmed for the "Jewson" chase over 2m4f on Thursday rather than the 3-mile & 110 yard RSA on Wednesday. This has really stirred-up that betting market and Dynaste has been installed as the 7/4 fav for the Jewson. Next in the market for the Jewson is the Mullins trained Aupcharlie at 5/1 along with Captain Conan at similar odds. This looks like a race that will provide some decent eachway value.

The covers have been on the course at Cheltenham since Sunday afternoon, and there is the possibility of some wintry showers before the start of the Festival on Tuesday. I did think there was an outside chance that the 1st day could be lost to snow (a centimetre of snow on the covers would be almost too much to shift and guarantee racing) and on approaching some high street bookmakers for odds (I wanted £10 @ 50/1) the best odds "suggested" was just 5/1. Whatever the weather, it's almost certain that the ground will be soft on Tuesday, maybe even turning heavy during the day if there is some moisture in the air be it rain or snow or sleet. As such, it may be worth taking a "watching brief" on the initial races (Supreme Novices Hurdle, and the Arkle) and looking for some proven mud-loving stayers in the JLT Speciality Handicap Chase.

Onto today, and racing goes ahead at Plumpton and Taunton altho' the planned meeting at Stratford has been lost to the weather. On this day 2 years ago, I posted up a winning double that meant followers went into the Festival with wallets full. My luck hasn't been "in" these past couple of weeks and the one horse I thought had a decent chance on Saturday, Super Ally, was the subject of a fair old gamble from 7/1 into 7/2 but managed to fall early-on at just the 6th fence. It was a race of shocks as 11yo Do It For Dalkey collapsed and died after winning the race. "Dalkey" had been on my alert list for a couple of years and had won me some money as a chaser; he always seemed to run to his best, and my commiserations go to his owner.

At Taunton, there are a couple of runners who should go well.  In the 2:50, David Pipe's QALINAS looks capable of winning again in what could be a fairly weak handicap hurdle over an extended 3-mile on soft ground. At least we know the horse should stay this sort of trip on soft ground, whereas that is a question-mark over the rest of his rivals. As such, odds of 9/2 (William Hill & BetVictor) look fair. Later in the afternoon, I'll be really surprised if THE KNOXS cannot take the 4-runner "Veterans" chase over 3m5f. Yes, this trip will be further than he's run before but he's a decent horse at his best and I think he should be a lot shorter than 9/4 (available generally) for this race. I'm not recommending individual wagers on these horses today, as the races they are competing in are not the sort I like to wager in being either too weak (and so unpredictable) or having too few runners (and greater likelihood of false pace and tactical misjudgement), but I am having a personal small win "double" on these at what look attractive odds about horses from top trainers.

The "draft" blog for tomorrow and the first day of the Festival will be sent out around 9pm tonight (maybe a little later) to those in receipt of the bulletin. If you want to receive my draft blogs the night before racing this week and get a copy of my Cheltenham Bulletin plus all my handicap updates; then just hit the "donate" button and donate at least £8.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Heavy ground, so play it safe

Last night I took part in a Festival internet chat on http://gallopslive.com along with a few other blogger and Twitter tipsters. It was really enjoyable and hopefully we can do something similar before the Aintree Grand National meeting in a few weeks time.

We have 3 solid meetings today at Sandown, Ayr and Chepstow. At Sandown, the going is now heavy so it could be a bit tricky finding winners here. The 3-mile handicap chase at 2:40 will only have 6-runners and Rigadin De Beauchene  comes here instead of Cheltenham next week so he must have a strong chance. Is he worth opposing? Well, he’s had some hard races this season and this may be a trip to the well too much, but if he repeats his form of LTO then he’ll win. Paul Nicholls does not have many runners out today, but one is There’s No Panic and odds of 5/1 about this one may be interesting. However, the booking of McCoy on McCains LIVELY BARON is what catches my eye. This horse stays all day long and yes, he was beaten by the fav LTO but all his best form is in small fields of 10 or less. More than 10 runners and he struggles, so I can see him showing much improved form in this race from LTO. He won a tough race here in December on soft ground and races today off the same mark. For me, 8/1 (Ladbrokes and Stan James) is far too big.

The Imperial Cup is not my sort of race so I’ll not waste my time on it. That said, ARNAUD will be using this as a prep for the County Hurdle next week, so expect a bold show and take note.

In the final race on the card, ARBEO was the last horse to beat Emperor’s Choice and that one is rated 19lb higher now, whereas ARBEO is 16lb higher from that meeting. He should hold Ballyallia Man on this ground as that was what seemed to stop the latter LTO.

At Chepstow, Duke Of Monmouth (in the 3:05) deserves a win, but he really looks like he needs to go chasing now as he’s too one-paced as a hurdler. An old friend of mine runs in this – SARANDO. This horse should be a 150+ chaser but he’s lost his way and today runs off OR119. However, LTO he showed that he’s coming back into form and he will love this ground (the softer the better for him) and was rated OR139 as a novice hurdler. The last time he won – on heavy at Lingfield – Liam Treadwell rode, and he’s in the saddle today. Odds of 12/1 look interesting.

I’ve been waiting a long time for AS DE FER to come back to racing. He was broken by the heavy ground when attempting the Welsh National in Dec ’11, but before that he looked very useful when fresh off a long break over 3-mile on soft ground. Unfortunately, odds of 4/1 is pitiful and there’s no value in him.

At Ayr, Timmy Murphy gets on really well with SUPER ALLY and they can win the 3:25. The trip of 3m1f will suit and so will the soft ground. Murphy is only at Ayr to ride this horse and a repeat of their performance when 2^nd at Carlisle in November will see him take this race. His run LTO was decent as the 4 who beat him were all well fancied and in good form before and since. He also had some decent horses behind him (for instance LIVELY BARON), and odds of 13/2 (Corals) look fair, especially as I’ve just missed 7/1.

Selections:

Ayr 3:25, SUPER ALLY, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (Corals 5^th odds a place, BOG)
NOTE: odds reduced at 10:25am to 11/2 so NO BET.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

The quiet before the storm

It's a bit like the quiet before the storm as we all anticipate the Cheltenham Festival next week. Plans are starting to come together and the early declarations for the 1st day of the Festival on Tuesday are in today's Racing Post.

Tonight, I'm taking part in a Festival internet chat on http://gallopslive.com along with a few other blogger and Twitter tipsters. It starts at 7pm and will run for about 90 mins, so why not log-on and take part.

The William Hill Supreme Novices Hurdle that opens the Festival is now down to 19 runners as it looks like My Tent Or Yours has scared-off most of the "peripheral" opposition, but it still looks a high-class field. Those who are in receipt of my Cheltenham Bulletin will know the horse that I've pinned my hopes on, and if you want to receive the bulletin (and all 4 handicap updates) just donate at least £8 using the "donate" button at the top of the screen and will issue it as soon as the deposit is received. The real "dark-horse" in the Supreme is the ex-flat racer Flying Cross (from the David Pipe stable) who is yet to jump a hurdle. It would be asking a huge amount for him to win this race on his hurdle debut.

The Racing Post Arkle has 12 declared runners at the moment, and that will probably reduce further as I can't see Aupcharlie, Tap Night or Viva Colonia taking part, and even the likes of Majala, Marito and His Excellency could side-step this encounter with Simonsig and Overturn. Willie Mullins was full of confidence about Arvika Ligeonniere in the Weekender interview this week, and 8/1 eachway looks a fair wager antepost if only 6 line-up at the start.

The JLT Speciality Handicap Chase is down to 57 entries. There are a few in this that catch my eye and I've highlighted their chances in the Handicap Updates sent out to those who have donated for the bulletin. There is one in particular who looks to have a huge chance in my opinion.

The Stan James Champion hurdle is down to just 10 runners but what a field – it includes the last 3 Champion Hurdle winners. Again, I've pinned my hopes to a particular horse who has been named in my bulletin. I would expect a couple more to come out of this race, probably Cotton Mill and Khyber Kim.

The Cross Country Chase is now at 31 runners, but I think there is a safety limit of 20 on this race, so expect there to be a few more to come out yet. The 12yo LEAC AN SCAIL has been in great form of late and he may be worth a little tickle at 25/1 for this.

The Mares' Hurdle will go to QUEVEGA, and she'll probably be followed home again by Kentford Grey Lady who was 2nd in this race last year and has looked an improved performer this season. Even so, she still has 15lb+ to find to trouble Quevega.

The day ends with the Rewards4Racing Novices' handicap chase and, with 54 standing their ground, this race is still up in the air as to who will line-up at the start.

There are no selections today. Yesterdays selection BEAU DANDY did not run well as he was unable to dominate the race as he likes to. He was sent off the 9/2 fav, so we did manage to get some "value" on him by taking the morning odds of 13/2, but his performance wasn't good enough. The racing today looks "bitty" and I'm giving it a miss as there looks like being an opportunity or two tomorrow.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad