Heavy ground, so play it safe

Last night I took part in a Festival internet chat on http://gallopslive.com along with a few other blogger and Twitter tipsters. It was really enjoyable and hopefully we can do something similar before the Aintree Grand National meeting in a few weeks time.

We have 3 solid meetings today at Sandown, Ayr and Chepstow. At Sandown, the going is now heavy so it could be a bit tricky finding winners here. The 3-mile handicap chase at 2:40 will only have 6-runners and Rigadin De Beauchene  comes here instead of Cheltenham next week so he must have a strong chance. Is he worth opposing? Well, he’s had some hard races this season and this may be a trip to the well too much, but if he repeats his form of LTO then he’ll win. Paul Nicholls does not have many runners out today, but one is There’s No Panic and odds of 5/1 about this one may be interesting. However, the booking of McCoy on McCains LIVELY BARON is what catches my eye. This horse stays all day long and yes, he was beaten by the fav LTO but all his best form is in small fields of 10 or less. More than 10 runners and he struggles, so I can see him showing much improved form in this race from LTO. He won a tough race here in December on soft ground and races today off the same mark. For me, 8/1 (Ladbrokes and Stan James) is far too big.

The Imperial Cup is not my sort of race so I’ll not waste my time on it. That said, ARNAUD will be using this as a prep for the County Hurdle next week, so expect a bold show and take note.

In the final race on the card, ARBEO was the last horse to beat Emperor’s Choice and that one is rated 19lb higher now, whereas ARBEO is 16lb higher from that meeting. He should hold Ballyallia Man on this ground as that was what seemed to stop the latter LTO.

At Chepstow, Duke Of Monmouth (in the 3:05) deserves a win, but he really looks like he needs to go chasing now as he’s too one-paced as a hurdler. An old friend of mine runs in this – SARANDO. This horse should be a 150+ chaser but he’s lost his way and today runs off OR119. However, LTO he showed that he’s coming back into form and he will love this ground (the softer the better for him) and was rated OR139 as a novice hurdler. The last time he won – on heavy at Lingfield – Liam Treadwell rode, and he’s in the saddle today. Odds of 12/1 look interesting.

I’ve been waiting a long time for AS DE FER to come back to racing. He was broken by the heavy ground when attempting the Welsh National in Dec ’11, but before that he looked very useful when fresh off a long break over 3-mile on soft ground. Unfortunately, odds of 4/1 is pitiful and there’s no value in him.

At Ayr, Timmy Murphy gets on really well with SUPER ALLY and they can win the 3:25. The trip of 3m1f will suit and so will the soft ground. Murphy is only at Ayr to ride this horse and a repeat of their performance when 2^nd at Carlisle in November will see him take this race. His run LTO was decent as the 4 who beat him were all well fancied and in good form before and since. He also had some decent horses behind him (for instance LIVELY BARON), and odds of 13/2 (Corals) look fair, especially as I’ve just missed 7/1.

Selections:

Ayr 3:25, SUPER ALLY, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (Corals 5^th odds a place, BOG)
NOTE: odds reduced at 10:25am to 11/2 so NO BET.

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