The Grand National 2013

This is it! Today is the day of the Grand National and what a race we have in propect as we have a full field of 40 runners with some running off 10st. But first, what a performance we saw from both Sprinter Sacre and Cue Card. I’ve not calculated my personal ratings yet for the race, but that performance by Sprinter Sacre was the best I’ve seen from a horse over the jumps given the quality of the opposition. Make no mistake, Cue Card ran a phenomenal race too so where this puts Sprinter Sacre is in the realms of the all-time greats.

Today is all about the big race, but there are other races on the card the best of which looks to be the John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle over 3-mile at 2:50. The interesting runner in this is GRANDS CRUS who returns to hurdles for the first time since coming 2nd in the World Hurdle in 2011. He’s not quite as good a chaser as a hurdler, but what a hurdler he was back then. I think the form he’s shown over fences suggests he’s still got the ability and speed he had as a hurdler. He is still only an 8yo, and so long as this race is run at a true pace then I cannot see anything in this race coming close to him. Odds of 6/1 look very generous to me.

I've been studying the Grand National form for several days and there are several in this race that keep coming to my attention. They are Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Quel Esprit, and Viking Blond. As I wrote yesterday, with a bottom-weight of 10st this year I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY and VIKING BLOND.

Before I go any further, BetVictor are paying each-way on the 1^st-6 places and that cannot be ignored.

CAPPA BLEU ran a cracker at Ascot LTO and he was 4^th off this same mark in last year’s National when doing all his best work in the final mile. He looks good value to be in the 1^st-6 at odds of 11/1.

CHICAGO GREY never really had a race in this last year as he was brought-down early on. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and, running off a lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. There has been a lot of market support for him and he’s now 12/1 with BetVictor.

VIKING BLOND carries just 10st He's been running well all season without winning and he should be in the front-rank thru'out the race. He did fall at the 1^st fence last year and that is probably why he’s 100/1, but I expect him to run a lot better than his odds.

Although I don’t expect the winner to carry more than 11st, there are several carrying 11st-plus that will run well.  One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT at 40/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1st-6 home.

Selections:

Aintree 2:50, GRANDS CRUS, 1pt win @ 6/1 (available generally)

Aintree: The Grand National at 4:15 – all bets with BetVictor who pay quarter odds a place on the 1^st-6 finishers:

CAPPA BLEU, ½pt win @ 11/1

CHICAGO GREY, ½pt win @ 12/1

I'm expecting one of these two horses to win.

CAPPA BLEU, ¼pt eachway @ 11/1

CHICAGO GREY, ¼pt eachway @ 12/1

VIKING BLOND, ¼pt eachway @ 100/1

QUEL ESPRIT, ¼pt eachway @ 40/1

Total 5pts staked today

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Aintree Grand National meeting - Day 2

No luck yesterday. It all seemed to happen too quick for Cape Tribulation and, on the face of it, the Ryanair form came off yesterdays race with a stronger look about it than the Gold Cup form. In the John Smith Hurdle over 2m4f, I was right to narrow the field sown to just Countrywide Flame or Zarkandar but, unfortunately, I chose the wrong one in Countrywide Flame. It seems Zarkandar is to be aimed at the World Hurdle in 2014.

 

Onto today, and the big race, the feature perhaps of the entire meeting for horseracing aficionados, is the 2m4f John Smith's Melling Chase featuring Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar. On the face of it, Sprinter Sacre should win - but this trip is a potential banana skin for him. I've long been a CUE CARD fan and the horse has done me proud this season providing me with plenty of profit, and I've already invested some of that profit on the horse at 8/1 for this earlier in the week. I'm not sure about Flemenstar, but he could also be a thorn for the odds-on fav. I just think his form is a little bit weaker than CUE CARD's and yesterday's win by First Lieutenant reinforces that belief.

I'm on CUE CARD for 1pt win @ 8/1, tho' current odds of 7/1 look decent.

 

Earlier in the day at 2:30, the novice chase over 3m1f looks a cracker. I'm opposing Dynaste in this as he looked ordinary at Cheltenham LTO and that form looks poor. Both Super Duty and Vino Griego ran great races to be 2^nd in their respective events at Cheltenham and, at the odds Vino Griego @ 8/1 looks the best value. However, I was at Ascot when ROCKY CREEK won LTO and missing Cheltenham could be of benefit to this horse. There's not much fat in his odds of 11/4, but I'm in for 1pt win.

 

If you didn't read my blog yesterday, I've been studying the Grand National form and there are several that catch my eye. I especially like Cappa Bleu as he ran a cracker at Ascot LTO on the same day that Rocky Creek won. Chicago Grey never really had a race in this last year as he was brought-down early on. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and, running off a lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT @ 50/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1^st-6 home so look out for bookies' who are paying 6-places eachway such as BetVictor. Another is LOST GLORY @ 50/1 who has been kept off the track since the autumn as he is not a soft ground horse, but he will stay all day long and will be doing all his best work in the final mile.

 

It is likely that we will have a bottom-weight of 10st this year so I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st this year. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY and LOST GLORY.  However, another I've long thought of as being suitable for the Grand National has sneaked in on just 10st, VIKING BLOND. He's been running well all season without winning and he should be in the front-rank thru'out the race. My final selection will be advised on Saturday morning.

 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Aintree Grand National meeting - Day 1

We have a great meeting lined-up at Aintree, culminating in the greatest horserace on the planet – the Grand National. There will be a lot said over the next few days about safety, and horses, and jump-racing in particular. From my point of view, you cannot be a lover of the horse and oppose horseracing. The Grand National, being the most famous horserace in the world, is the focus for opponents of horseracing. But, if the Grand National is lost, that focus won't go away, it will simply move-on to another race and chip-away at what forms a huge part of the national character. Horses and Britain are indelibly linked.

 

We have some great racing today at Aintree. From the 1^st race at 2:00 we have high-class fare, and the opener has been won by some really good hurdlers in the past few years. This race is dominated by trainers Henderson and Nicholls and I think it will be IRISH SAINT from Paul Nicholls yard that will take this. Even so, this won't be a betting race for me, as I'm waiting for what look to be more secure targets later in the afternoon.

 

Next up is the Betfred Bowl, a Grade 1 chase over 3m1f, and what a field we have for this. The hot-fav is SILVINIACO CONTI and I really cannot see this horse getting beat today. The ground is in his favour, as well as the trip and course – he won here last April over C&D as a novice chaser. Odds of "evens" are not generous in my opinion tho' as he took what looked a heavy fall in the Gold Cup and he will need to show there are no ill-effects from that race today. I cannot see First Lieutenant troubling the fav, even tho' this extended 3-mile trip will suit him a lot better than the Ryanair trip of 2m5f; I just don't think the horse is god enough. And the same can be said for Quito De La Roque who looks out of his depth. The ground will almost certainly be too quick for The Giant Bolster, and that brings me to that grand servant CAPE TRIBULATION. As I wrote yesterday, he also won here at Aintree last year, taking the handicap hurdle over 3m1f with 11st 12lb. As such, he will have no trouble handing this "good" ground and he could have too much speed for these over the final couple of fences and on the run-in. I took 10/1 eachway to ½pt yesterday thinking that he'd be 6/1 at the 'off', but he's 14/1 as I write with Bet365 and Stan James (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3) which I think is great value.

 

The John Smith Hurdle over 2m4f is at 3:05, and I think the new kid on the block, The New One can be opposed. Sure, he was a ready winner of the Neptune at the Cheltenham Festival, but that race did not look as strong as we've seen in recent years. In my mind, the winner of this race will come from either Countrywide Flame @ 9/2, or Zarkandar @ 6/1. Of these, I favour the former as the 5yo Countrywide Flame was staying-on strongest when 3^rd in the Champion Hurdle. The 2^nd-fav Grandouet is a far from safe hurdler and falls too often for my liking. Zarkandar has long been thought to want this extended trip of 2m4f, but he looked one-paced on the Champion Hurdle and tho' he stayed-on that day he wasn't running-on in the manner Countrywide Flame was.

 

I've been studying the Grand National form and there are several that catch my eye initially. First-off, I don't like the fav On His Own as he fell on the 2^nd-circuit last year in the National, and falling late in any race is a sign of fatigue. I do like the look of the next couple in the market, Seabass and Cappa Bleu who were both placed last year and are coming into this years race well prepared. I especially like Cappa Bleu as he ran a cracker at Ascot LTO. Colbert Station is an interesting runner, tho' for a horse so short on chasing experience his odds are very short at 11/1. Chicago Grey never really had a race in this last year and he started at 20/1. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and runs off a 7lb lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT @ 50/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1^st-6 home so look out for bookies' who are paying 6-places eachway. Another is LOST GLORY @ 50/1 who has been kept off the track since the autumn as he is not a soft ground horse, but he will stay all day long.

 

It is likely that we will have a bottom-weight of 10st this year so I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st this year. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY, QUEL ESPIRIT and LOST GLORY. My final selection will be advised on Saturday morning.

 

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do – that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember – gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

 

Aintree Grand National meeting 2013

This week we have the Grand National at Aintree, and the meeting looks a cracker. Apart from the Grand National itself, run on Saturday, there are some great races planned especially on the opening couple of days. I am planning on being in Liverpool seeing relatives at the weekend, altho' I won't be at the race meeting at Aintree. This time of year always puts a strain on my time what with Easter holidays, the Cheltenham Festival and then Aintree all coming in quick succession, and so I've not been able to finish off my Cheltenham look-back yet. The aim is to complete it next week after the Grand National.

Thursday has a couple of really good races in the Betfred Bowl Chase (Grade 1) and the John Smiths Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1). The "Bowl" should go to Silviniaco  Conti as he looks head'n'shoulders above this field.  He was probably tiring when he fell 3-out at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, but this easier Aintree circuit will suit him perfectly. Remember, he won the 3m1f novice chase (run this year on Friday) last season. Personally, I don't think First Lieutenant is good enough to trouble the fav, and I expect the one to follow him home will be Cape Tribulation who also won at this meeting last year when taking the 3m1f handicap hurdle carrying 11st 12lb. Current odds of 9/1 about Cape Tribulation look very generous and he must be the eachway play in this, and I reckon he'll be trading a lot shorter at the off.

The Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f has been relegated from Saturdays card, which I think is a shame as the race has a great history. The race has such greats as Comedy Of Errors, Night Nurse, Monksfield, Dawn Run, Istabraq and Morley Street on the winners rosta. This year's race looks very competitive with Zarkandar, The New One, Oscar Whisky, Grandouet, and Countrywide Flame all looking to hold chances.

Perhaps the race of the meeting (excluding the Grand National) is on Friday, when Sprinter Sacre meets Cue Card and Flemenstar in the Melling Chase over 2m4f. Regular readers of the blog will know that I am a huge CUE CARD fan, and he's done me proud this season providing 19pts of profit for total stakes of 5pts. If he will ever beat Sprinter Sacre it is over 2m4f as there is no way he would challenge him over 2-mile. This race will show just how good Sprinter Sacre is and whether he is the "monster" that some consider him to be. Paddy Power are  8/1 about CUE CARD and I cannot resist that, so I'm having a 1pt win wager.

I'll be looking mainly at the Grand National over the next couple of days and hoping to post up the winner on this blog on Saturday morning.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.

If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.

Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad