No luck yesterday. It all seemed to happen too quick for Cape Tribulation and, on the face of it, the Ryanair form came off yesterdays race with a stronger look about it than the Gold Cup form. In the John Smith Hurdle over 2m4f, I was right to narrow the field sown to just Countrywide Flame or Zarkandar but, unfortunately, I chose the wrong one in Countrywide Flame. It seems Zarkandar is to be aimed at the World Hurdle in 2014.
Onto today, and the big race, the feature perhaps of the entire meeting for horseracing aficionados, is the 2m4f John Smith's Melling Chase featuring Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card and Flemenstar. On the face of it, Sprinter Sacre should win - but this trip is a potential banana skin for him. I've long been a CUE CARD fan and the horse has done me proud this season providing me with plenty of profit, and I've already invested some of that profit on the horse at 8/1 for this earlier in the week. I'm not sure about Flemenstar, but he could also be a thorn for the odds-on fav. I just think his form is a little bit weaker than CUE CARD's and yesterday's win by First Lieutenant reinforces that belief.
I'm on CUE CARD for 1pt win @ 8/1, tho' current odds of 7/1 look decent.
Earlier in the day at 2:30, the novice chase over 3m1f looks a cracker. I'm opposing Dynaste in this as he looked ordinary at Cheltenham LTO and that form looks poor. Both Super Duty and Vino Griego ran great races to be 2nd in their respective events at Cheltenham and, at the odds Vino Griego @ 8/1 looks the best value. However, I was at Ascot when ROCKY CREEK won LTO and missing Cheltenham could be of benefit to this horse. There's not much fat in his odds of 11/4, but I'm in for 1pt win.
If you didn't read my blog yesterday, I've been studying the Grand National form and there are several that catch my eye. I especially like Cappa Bleu as he ran a cracker at Ascot LTO on the same day that Rocky Creek won. Chicago Grey never really had a race in this last year as he was brought-down early on. This year he comes into it with a perfect preparation and, running off a lower rating, he looks to have a great chance. One horse that looks to have slipped under the radar is QUEL ESPIRIT @ 50/1, tho' his big weight of 11st 7lb may prevent him winning he could be in the 1st-6 home so look out for bookies' who are paying 6-places eachway such as BetVictor. Another is LOST GLORY @ 50/1 who has been kept off the track since the autumn as he is not a soft ground horse, but he will stay all day long and will be doing all his best work in the final mile.
It is likely that we will have a bottom-weight of 10st this year so I am not expecting a winner to carry more than 11st this year. I think that last horse to carry more than 14lbs greater than the bottom weight to victory was 3-time winner RED RUM. Weight in the National stops horses from winning. Those under 11st that I expect to be there at the finish are CAPPA BLEU, CHICAGO GREY and LOST GLORY. However, another I've long thought of as being suitable for the Grand National has sneaked in on just 10st, VIKING BLOND. He's been running well all season without winning and he should be in the front-rank thru'out the race. My final selection will be advised on Saturday morning.
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