Punchestown Day 2

We were treated to a demonstration of the strength of SPRINTER SACRE on the opening day of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland yesterday. Despite his tremendous efforts, Sizing Europe could not contain the champion, and yesterday also showed just how good a horse Sizing Europe is. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat; in fact he probably enhanced his already superb profile. Let us not forget that this is a horse that was chastised by a fair number of the racing press as being "ungenuine" when he flopped in the Champion Hurdle – while the "genuine" reason for his failure to win was not lack of character but an injury.

For me, the worst news of the day was that RULE THE WORLD - who was 2^nd in the Neptune (Novice) Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival – broke-down in the hurdle race won by Jezki.  I've not learned of his fate, as he was removed from the course, but it is unlikely that we will see him on the track again. He was bred to be a chaser, and looked to have a very bright future.

The Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f was won by the 14/1 chance Mount Benbulben by over 20-lengths, and this suggests the result is a bit dubious. There can be a fair few odd results at Punchestown as the meeting is the 3^rd and last of the major jumps racing festivals, and many of those that have taken in Cheltenham and Aintree are "over-the-top" by now. It could be that this race joins the list of odd results.

Personally, I had only one wager yesterday, managing to obtain 5/2 (just missed out on 11/4) on Newton Abbot winner THEATRE GUIDE (SP of 2/1). I'm sure he would have won anyway, but the race fell apart with the fall early-on of Empire Levant, who in-turn brought down Kapga De Cerisy, leaving THEATRE GUIDE to win easily.

Today's feature race at Punchestown is the Punchestown Gold Cup, and I think the value in this race is hard to find. All of the runners are well-exposed, with several of the 8-starters looking to have little chance (ie: Chicago Grey and Quito De La Roque), or only an outside chance if today is a ""going "day (ie: Riverside Theatre and Captain Chris). Personally, I think Long Run and Sir Des Champs have hit their performance ceilings and we are unlikely to see any improvement from them today. So that leaves First Lieutenant and Kauto Stone as the most likely contenders (in my opinion) to win. When they last met, Kauto Stone was superior but that was very early in the season and in his runs since he's disappointed.  I always thought FIRST LIEUTENANT should have gone for the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month and, tho' his subsequent defeat by Cue Card was no disgrace, he was made to look flat-footed over the shorter trip of the Ryanair Chase. Stepped back up in trip to 3m+ at Aintree, he showed his stamina is 2^nd-to-none running out a game winner. I think he will confirm his superiority over Sir Des Champs today and he will put himself firmly in the frame for a Cheltenham Gold Cup bid next March.

As I hinted at yesterday, I'm looking at streamlining my wagering this summer due to time constraints. As such, I'm intending to focus mainly on those races which are "Listed" class or better. There are plenty of them throughout the Flat season and, because there are a lot of them, a fair percentage are "weak". That's the angle that I am hoping to exploit.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Punchestown Day 1

The opening day of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland, and the tremendous prospect of seeing SPRINTER SACRE extending his unbeaten run as a chaser is the highlight of the day. The brilliant thing about Punchestown is that the first race of the day is at 3:40pm with the best races on at 5:30 and 6:40 allowing many the option of watching "live" on the way home from work if they pop-into the local bookies (which is what I intend on doing). While I cannot see anything beating SPRINTER SACRE today, I can see an upset in the Champion Novice Hurdle being staged at 4:20pm. RULE THE WORLD - who was last seen coming 2^nd in the Neptune (Novice) Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival - will not be lacking in stamina over this minimum trip, and he can put-stay the principle pair of Champagne Fever and Jezki. At 6:40pm, the Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f would not look out of place at Cheltenham – this looks a top-class field and is probably stronger in depth than the RSA Chase run last month, in which BOSTON BOB fell at the final fence. I felt BOSTON BOB was not given enough credit for that run, his first attempt at 3-mile, and I also felt that his jockey Paul Townend was given too much stick for that final fence fall when his horse was leading. The tactical speed he showed that day on the run-up to the 2^nd-last was impressive and is not something that we've seen in some of his rivals who all seem to want a trip in excess of 3m1f and the opportunity to show their stamina.

There is plenty of horseracing in the UK with some jump racing at Newton Abbot, Ffos Las and Towcester; but it's all fairly ordinary stuff tho' I do like the chance of Theatre Guide in the 2:30 at Newton Abbot. Not all horses appreciate the hustle and bustle of Cheltenham in March, so I can forgive him that run. I can also forgive him his run in the Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day when he was hopelessly outclassed. In-between those efforts, he ran a cracker when looking like pushing Grandioso all the way to the line till falling at the final fence over 2m4f at Kempton. A repeat of that level of performance should be too good for this field, altho' the "dark-horse" Empire Levant from Paul Nicholls' stable could prove the most troublesome should he improve for his latest winning debut by about 12lb+.

Those are my thoughts on the days racing. I'm not posting any selections as the form of the jump racing becomes as unpredictable as the weather at this time of the year, and I had my fingers badly burnt on Saturday lumping-on a so-called "hot-pot".

The news that Mahmood al-Zarooni has been plying his horses with anabolic steroids is not good for horseracing. A shadow has been cast over the performances of horses from his stable since he burst onto the scene in March 2010, and questions will now be asked as to whether his phenomenal success was all down to his use of steroids. For his patron, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed, this is a double-blow as it puts pressure on his entire breeding operation. Reliance on performance based on merit is the fundamental foundation stone of a successful racehorse breeding operation, and if Sheikh Mohammed cannot trust his own trainers to run a drug-free operation then he cannot have faith in his stallions and mares to produce top-class stock.

Finally, the punter is also hit as form-lines become unreliable when a trainer abuses his position by administering steroids.  The punter is always the one to suffer whatever the outcome.

I'm formulating my punting strategy for the Flat season and I should be able to expand on that strategy over the coming couple of weeks. In previous years I have concentrated on handicap racing, endeavouring to find under-rated and/or improving horses to wager on. Unfortunately, for me that is a time-consuming occupation and time is something of a scarce resource for me this summer. I'm in a new job, with a house-move planned in a couple of weeks, and I've a couple of holidays planned in July and September – all of which will remove the opportunity to study race-form in depth this summer.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Cheltenham 17th April

We have a great day of horseracing ahead of us with the final jumps meeting of the season at Cheltenham. 

There are a fair few horses from my alert list running at the meeting this afternoon, and a couple go in the 2:45 which is a 3m4f handicap chase; they are Handy Andy and Imperial Circus. This trip is too far for the latter, but Handy Andy is fav for this race. Thing is, I reckon todays ground being good-to-soft is too quick for him and I’m also not sure he’ll stay this sort of extreme trip as he was one-paced LTO at Haydock over a similar trip. There are 16 runners still in this race, so there are 4-places available, but 7/1 doesn’t look value. The 2^nd-fav Hunters Lodge won a weak 4-horse race LTO and going-up 7lb for that looks harsh. The 3^rd-fav Dusky Bob is a grinder who should be on the premises at the finish, but he’s not my idea of the winner on this ground. Bounds And Leaps likes to dominate her races, but she’ll be up against it today and a 13lb hike for her LTO win looks harsh. This ground should bring out an improvement in African Picnic, but he’s not guaranteed to stay this extreme trip. As such, I’m taken with the chance of QIANSHAN LEADER @ 10/1. He was lucky to be 2^nd LTO as the leading pair fell at the final fence, but that was his first run since the autumn and an inspection of the formbook suggests he’ll improve a fair bit for that run and he’ll go well on this ground and stay the trip. He was a good 5^th in the Skybet Chase in Jan’12 and before that beat Benny Be Good a neck off OR126 which is only 1lb below his rating today. The remainder were over 28-lengths further back that day and a repeat of that performance would see him take this race.

The main race of the day is at 3:55, the MacMillan Cancer Suppert Silver Trophy Chase over 2m5f and, at the weights, it looks like GHIZAO has a chance of finding the winners enclosure. Menorah looks too high running off OR169 and giving weight away all-round. Hunt Ball will relish this trip and ground and we may see a career-best effort from him in this race, but he will need to find about 5lb of improvement if he’s to hold off Champion Court and GHIZAO. Champion Court is an admirable horse who is very consistent, but I rate him a consistent 157-159 performer, whereas GHIZAO is about 160-161. Not much between them in ability, but Champion Court is 9/4 today while GHIZAO is 15/2. At those sort of odds, I have to have a wager on GHIZAO and I will risk ½pt to win.

Selections

Cheltenham 2:45, QIANSHAN LEADER, ¼pt ew @ 10/1 (Bet365 and others offering BOG, ¼-odds a place 1,2,3,4)

Cheltenham 3:55, GHIZAO, ½pt win @ 15/2 (Bet Victor, BOG)

Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Jumps Season 2012-13 blog stats and profit

What a tremendous jumps season it has been for followers of the Wayward Lad blog. Right from the off with the 1^st blog of the 2012-13 Jumps season posted on Friday 2^nd November the winners have been flowing. Here is a run-down of the 2012-13 season selections and the performance of the blog.

November

02Nov12: MR WATSON, 1pt win @ 9/4 non-runner

02Nov12: BLESS THE WINGS, 1pt win @ 13/2, WON = +6.50pts

03Nov12: PLANET OF SOUND, 1pt win @ 5/1 lost = (1pt)

03Nov12: ACE HIGH, 1pt win @ 5/1, PU = (1pt)

03Nov12: KALELLSHAN, 1pt win @ 6/1, UR = (1pt)

09Nov12: ASHES HOUSE, 1pt win @ 9/4, non-runner

10Nov12: GRADUATION NIGHT, 1pt win @ 9/2, lost = (1pt)

10Nov12: STAGECOACH PEARL, 1pt win @ 2/1, lost = (1pt)

10Nov12: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, 1pt win @ 9/1, WON = +9.00pts

10Nov12: ZARKANDAR, 1pt win @ 100/30, WON = +3.30pts

10Nov12: NO LOOSE CHANGE, ½pt ew @ 20/1, lost = (1pt)

12Nov12: SARANDO, 1pt win @ 7/1, lost = (1pt)

16Nov12: UNIONISTE, ½pt win @ 5/1, 3^rd = (½pt)

16Nov12: SILVER ROQUE, 1pt win @ 6/1, 3^rd = (1pt)

16Nov12: RUN WITH THE WIND, ½pt ew @ 20/1, lost = (1pt)

16Nov12: CINEVATOR, ½pt ew @ 25/1, 4^th = +2.625pts

17Nov12: SIRE COLLONGES, 1pt win @ 2/1, lost = (1pt)

17Nov12: BRADLEY, 1pt win @ 6/1, 2^nd = (1pt)

17Nov12: MONBEG DUDE, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, WON = +12.50pts

17Nov12: ANY CURRENCY, ¼pt ew @ 16/1, 4^th = +0.75pts

17Nov12: NADIYA DE LA VEGA, ¼pt ew @ 16/1, 3^rd = +0.75pts

17Nov12: HUNT BALL, ¼pt ew @ 9/1, PU = (½pt)

17Nov12: WYCK HILL, 1pt win @ 3/1, WON = +3.00pts

23Nov12: RESTLESS HARRY, ½pt win @ 11/4, lost = (½pt)

23Nov12: MARSHALL ZHUKOV, 1pt win @ 4/1, lost = (1pt)

23Nov12: BRACKLOON HIGH, ½pt win @ 9/2, fell = (½pt)

24Nov12: QUARTZ DE THAIX, 1pt win @ 5/1, WON = +5.00pts

24Nov12: CAPTAIN CHRIS, 1pt win @ 4/1, WON = +4.00pts

24Nov12: THE GIANT BOLSTER, 1pt win @ 13/1, lost = (1pt)

24Nov12: SUPER ALLY, ½pt ew @ 12/1, lost = (1pt)

29Nov12: SIZING SANTIAGO, ½pt ew @ 9/1, WON = +5.40pts +36.825

29Nov12: VALID REASON, 1pt win @ 11/2, lost = (1pt)

30Nov12: LET’S GET SERIOUS, 1pt win @ 5/1, WON = +5.00pts

30Nov12: BLESS THE WINGS, 1pt ew @ 5/1, WON = +6.00pts

Profit for November = +46.825pts, from 28.50pts staked

November highlights:

Following good horses is a sure way to profits and BLESS THE WINGS helped me start the blog with a win. I also started listing “eyecatchers”on the blog,  and those noted in November which subsequently won included Rolling Aces, Raya Star, Wayward Prince, Bless The Wings, Gallox Bridge, Monbeg Dude, and Wyke Hill.

December

01Dec12: REY NACARADO, 1pt win @ 100/30, lost = (1pt)

01Dec12: ROLLING ACES, ½pt ew @ 5/1, WON = +3.00pts

01Dec 12: FRUITY O’ROONEY, ½pt ew @ 25/1, lost = (1pt)

01Dec12: HARRY THE VIKING, ¼pt ew @ 25/1, lost = (½pt)

07Dec12: GRADUATION NIGHT, ½pt ew @ 10/1, PU = (1pt)

07Dec12: SATOU, ½pt ew @ 7/1, lost = (1pt)

14Dec12: SOUND STAGE, ½pt ew @ 10/1, lost = (1pt)

14Dec12: BRADLEY, 1pt win @ 3/1, lost = (1pt)

14Dec12: CROSS KENNON, ½pt ew @ 12/1 = (1pt)

15Dec12: OH CRICK, 1pt win @ 9/2, PU = (1pt)

15Dec12: NADIYA DE LA VEGA, ½pt ew @ 10/1, UR = (1pt)

19Dec12: BALBRIGGAN, 1pt win @ 6/1, lost = (1pt)

20Dec12: CHAC DU CADRAN, 1pt win @ 11/4, 2^nd = (1pt)  

22Dec12: HEY BIG SPENDER, 2pts win @ 7/2, lost = (2pts)

22Dec12: PRINCETON PLAINS, ½pt ew @ 28/1, lost = (1pt)

22Dec12: MAJALA, 1pt win @ 5/2, WON = +2.50pts

26Dec12: CUE CARD, 1pt win @ 6/1, lost = (1pt)

26Dec12: VALID REASON, ½pt ew @ 12/1, PU = (1pt)

Monthly total = 11pts lost, season total = 35.825pts profit

December notes: Following a brilliant November, the month of December was a big let-down with 11pts lost over the month from the blog selections. The only highlights came for those who follow me on twitter (@wayward_lad) with 6/1 winner Dream Function, 4/1 winner Wayward Prince and 2/1 winner Marshal Zhukov amongst those advised via that medium.

January

05January13: MONBEG DUDE, ½pt ew @ 12/1, WON = +7.50pts

05January13: OUR ISLAND, ¼pt ew @ 22/1, lost = (½pt)

05January13: FRUITY O’ROONEY, ½pt ew @ 10/1, 3^rd = +0.75pts

08January13: WEISENTRAUM, ½pt ew @ 10/1, 2^nd = +0.75pts

12January13: TRIANGULAR, ½pt ew @ 13/2, lost = (1pt)

12January13: BRADLEY, ½pt ew @ 7/1, PU = (1pt)

26January13: KATENKO, 1pt win @ 5/1, WON = +5.00pts

26January13: SOMERSBY, ½pt ew @ 12/1, lost = (1pt)

26January13: CAPE TRIBULATION, ½pt ew @ 9/1, WON = +5.40pts

26January13: KAUTO STONE, 1pt win @ 15/2, lost = (1pt)

Monthly total = 14.90pts profit, season total = 53.725pts profit

January highlights: A brilliant start to the month courtesy of MONBEG DUDE, but don’t forget the twitter tips not included here including 6/1 winner Viva Colonia. A reduced number of selections, but what quality! From 10 selections, 3 winners and 2 x EW placed.

February

02February13: HOLLOW TREE, ½pt ew @ 16/1, lost = (1pt)

02February13: SHAKING HANDS, 1pt win @ 11/2, lost = (1pt)

02February13: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt win @ 9/2, lost = (½pt)

02February13: ON TREND, 1pt win @ 8/1, WON = +8.00pts

06February13: BILLY CUCKOO, ½pt win @ 5/1, 2^nd = (½pt)

08February13: COMEONGINGER, ½pt win @ 6/1, lost = (½pt)

08February13: CIRCUS OF DREAMS, ¼pt ew @ 66/1, 2^nd = +3.05pts

09February13: CASH AND GO, ½pt ew @ 9/1, UP = (1pt)

09February13: PRINCETON PLAIN, ½pt ew @ 40/1, UP = (1pt)

16February13: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt win @ 4/1, lost = (½pt)

16February13: BRACKLOON HIGH, ½pt ew @ 9/1, lost = (1pt)

16February13: CUE CARD, 2pts win @ 11/4, WON = +5.50pts

16February13: MONBEG DUDE, ½pt win @ 7/1, lost (3^rd) = (½pt)

16February13: VIKING BLOND, ¼pt ew @ 20/1, UP = (½pt)

18February13: ½pt eachway double, lost = (1pt)

22February13: SPANISH ARCH, ½pt ew @ 15/2, lost = (1pt)

22February13: RINGA BAY, ½pt ew @ 6/1, lost = (1pt)

22February13: CHARINGWORTH, ½pt ew @ 12/1, lost = (1pt)

23February13: RENARD, ½pt ew @ 13/2, 2^nd = +0.15pts

23February13: ROLLING ACES, 1pt win @ 9/2, 2^nd = (1pt)

26February13: THE MUSICAL GUY, ½pt win @ 11/2, lost = (½pt)

28February13: BUCK MULLIGAN, ½pt eachway @ 11/2, PU = (1pt)

Monthly total = 2.20pts profit, season total = 55.925pts profit

February highlights; a couple of good winners in CUE CARD and BRACKLOON HIGH but otherwise disappointing.

March

02March13: NIGHT IN MILAN, ½pt eachway @ 15/2, fell = (1pt)

02March13: THE KNOXS, 1pt win @ 6/1, UP = (1pt)

02March13: BOLD SIR BRIAN, 1pt win @ 100/30, PU = (1pt)

07March13: BEAU DANDY, ½pt eachway @ 13/2, UP = (1pt)

12March13: DODGING BULLETS, ½pt eachway @ 14/1, UP = (1pt)

12March13: OVERTURN, ½pt win @ 4/1, UP = (½pt)

12March13: LOCH BA, ½pt eachway @ 12/1, UP = (1pt)

12March13: TOUR DES CHAMPS, ¼pt ew @ 25/1, UP = (½pt)

12March13: ROCK On RUBY, 1pt win @ 6/1, 2^nd = (1pt)

13March13: GODSMEJUDGE, 1pt win @ 15/2, 3^rd = (1pt)

13March13: HOUBLON DES OBEAUX, ½pt eachway @ 10/1, UP = (1pt)

13March13: TOTALIZE, ½pt eachway @ 16/1, UP = (1pt)

14March13: STONEMASTER, ¼pt ew @ 26/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: HADA MEN, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: CUE CARD, 2pts win @ 5/1, plus 1pt @ 7/2, WON = 13.50pts

14March13: VINO GRIEGO, ¼pt ew @ 12/1, 2nd = +½pt

14March13: SHOEGAZER, ¼pt ew @ 33/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: ON TREND, ¼pt ew @ 20/1, UP = (½pt)

14March13: CHARTREUX, ¼pt ew @ 18/1, UP = (½pt)

15March13: AFRICAN GOLD, ½pt win @ 13/2, 2^nd = (½pt)

15March13: SILVINIACO CONTI, 1pt win @ 5/1, fell = (1pt)

15March13: DOUBLE ROSS, ¼pt ew @ 25/1, 3^rd = +1.3125pts

15March13: RENARD, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, UP = (½pt)

Monthly total = +1.8125pts, Season total = 57.7375pts

March highlights: CUE CARD was my Festival “banker” and he paid the way, enabling the blog to finish the month in profit. We came close with a number of selections at the Festival and, with a bit of luck, it could have been very profitable.

April

05April13: CUE CARD. 1pt win @ 7/1, 2^nd = (1pt)

06April13: GRANDS CRUS: 1pt win @ 6/1, UP = (1pt)

06April13: CAPPA BLUE, ½pt win @ 11/1, 2^nd = (½pt)

06April13: CHICAGO GREY, ½pt win @ 12/1, PU = (½pt)

06April13: CAPPA BLEU, ¼pt ew @ 11/1, UP = +0.4375pts

06April13: CHICAGO GREY, ¼pt ew @ 12/1, PU = (½pt)

06April13: VIKING BLOND, ¼pt ew @ 100/1, PU = (½pt)

06April13: QUEL ESPRIT, ¼pt ew @ 40/1, PU = (½pt)

Monthly figures to date = (4.0625pts), Season total to date = +53.675pts

No winner of the Grand National given, but we did get the 2^nd horse home in CAPPA BLEU. As such, the blog stands at a season profit of 53.675pts which, if I say so myself, is a great performance from a free blog with a maximum stake of 2pts.

I have written before that I think I give good value with this blog.

I post it online well before any of my selections are due to run and I tell readers how much to place, the bet type and which bookie to go to. I send out a "tweet" via twitter as soon as I post the blog so that you don't have to sit by your computer.  You don't need to register or use any passwords to read my blog, and there is no charge for the information. I am not a prolific tipster: I do not post 8 to 10 selections a day hoping that 1 or 2 will win (and then announce that I've made you a profit of perhaps 2pts on an outlay of 12 to 15 points or more). I don't just provide a list of horse names and race-times. The narrative provided says why I think a horse will win and why I think it is value at the odds available. I understand that the majority of punters out there want to have a "bet" a couple of times a week on a couple of horses on which they can lay-out £20 to £50 with a reasonable likelihood of getting a return, and I try and satisfy that person – they are my target audience.

Thanks for reading this blog and I hope you get enjoyment from it.
If you have a successful wager on the back of what you read here (and with over 500 regular readers, I'm assuming plenty do - that's why they keep coming back), then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks via the donate button.
Remember - gambling on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience - never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad