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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 24 April 2013

Punchestown Day 2

We were treated to a demonstration of the strength of SPRINTER SACRE on the opening day of the Punchestown Festival in Ireland yesterday. Despite his tremendous efforts, Sizing Europe could not contain the champion, and yesterday also showed just how good a horse Sizing Europe is. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat; in fact he probably enhanced his already superb profile. Let us not forget that this is a horse that was chastised by a fair number of the racing press as being "ungenuine" when he flopped in the Champion Hurdle – while the "genuine" reason for his failure to win was not lack of character but an injury.

For me, the worst news of the day was that RULE THE WORLD - who was 2nd in the Neptune (Novice) Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival – broke-down in the hurdle race won by Jezki.  I've not learned of his fate, as he was removed from the course, but it is unlikely that we will see him on the track again. He was bred to be a chaser, and looked to have a very bright future.

The Champion Novice Chase over 3m1f was won by the 14/1 chance Mount Benbulben by over 20-lengths, and this suggests the result is a bit dubious. There can be a fair few odd results at Punchestown as the meeting is the 3rd and last of the major jumps racing festivals, and many of those that have taken in Cheltenham and Aintree are "over-the-top" by now. It could be that this race joins the list of odd results.

Personally, I had only one wager yesterday, managing to obtain 5/2 (just missed out on 11/4) on Newton Abbot winner THEATRE GUIDE (SP of 2/1). I'm sure he would have won anyway, but the race fell apart with the fall early-on of Empire Levant, who in-turn brought down Kapga De Cerisy, leaving THEATRE GUIDE to win easily.

Today's feature race at Punchestown is the Punchestown Gold Cup, and I think the value in this race is hard to find. All of the runners are well-exposed, with several of the 8-starters looking to have little chance (ie: Chicago Grey and Quito De La Roque), or only an outside chance if today is a ""going "day (ie: Riverside Theatre and Captain Chris). Personally, I think Long Run and Sir Des Champs have hit their performance ceilings and we are unlikely to see any improvement from them today. So that leaves First Lieutenant and Kauto Stone as the most likely contenders (in my opinion) to win. When they last met, Kauto Stone was superior but that was very early in the season and in his runs since he's disappointed.  I always thought FIRST LIEUTENANT should have gone for the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month and, tho' his subsequent defeat by Cue Card was no disgrace, he was made to look flat-footed over the shorter trip of the Ryanair Chase. Stepped back up in trip to 3m+ at Aintree, he showed his stamina is 2nd-to-none running out a game winner. I think he will confirm his superiority over Sir Des Champs today and he will put himself firmly in the frame for a Cheltenham Gold Cup bid next March.

As I hinted at yesterday, I'm looking at streamlining my wagering this summer due to time constraints. As such, I'm intending to focus mainly on those races which are "Listed" class or better. There are plenty of them throughout the Flat season and, because there are a lot of them, a fair percentage are "weak". That's the angle that I am hoping to exploit.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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