One for the alert list

Yesterdays selection MERRION SQUARE looked in need of the race which was disappointing for a Paul Nicholls runner. With 5 to jump he moved-up smoothly behind the leaders (which was reflected in his in-running odds) but at that fence, the first in the straight, he hit it hard almost losing jockey Daryl Jacob and that did for his chance. Considering that another on my alert list in the race STORM SURVIVOR ran a great race to deat-heat for 3rd, and was well beaten by my selection when they met last May, there is plenty of scope for MERRION SQUARE to come on for the run. As such, I'm adding MERRION SQUARE to my alert list as he will surely improve for the run and has all his best form when going right-handed.

Another going onto my alert list is OPEN DAY who was 2nd earlier in the afternoon. I've liked this horse for a long time and when he gets his preferred conditions, a right-handed track, the word "soft" in the description and a trip of 2m4f, he's worth following.

Of the others from my alert list that ran yesterday:-
SWNYMOR fell when beaten, but should come on for the run and will appreciate a bit of "give" in the ground NTO. That said off OR140 he'll need to improve to win. I'll give one more chance to show his worth.
FOX RUN unfortunately suffered a fatal fall and we'll never know what he was capable of but he sure showed enough promise.
JOIN TOGETHER couldn't get involved and will be better-off when the rains come and slow the horses down.
THEATRICAL STAR ran a good race for the opening 20-furlongs of his race but (predictably) ran out of stamina at that point and trailed in last. If you discount the fact that he didn't stay the trip, this was a good run and he could be overlooked NTO over a shorter trip.

I'll be keeping my selections to my alert list for the near future and I'm tempted to wager on them blindly after HAROUET won at 9/1 earlier this week.

Chepstow in Autumn

I love the Autumn.  What I like best is last season's horse alerts coming good again.
Yesterday,  there were 3 horses from my alert list running. SWALEDALE LAD who ran a fair race to be 2nd and will benefit from the run,  WAYWARD PRINCE who ran well for a long way in his pipe opener for the season - he can go well off a decent rating when returning to chasing.  Finally, HAROUET won at 9/1  at Carlisle returning to the form he showed last autumn. I didn't tip him as I thought he needed more give in the ground, but his class and stamina shone through. That race included Time For Spring,  I've never thought the horse stays a stiff 3-mile and I always oppose the horse at that trip.

Today, we have a great meeting at Chepstow.  There are several off my alert list running:-
SWNYMOR in the 4:45 but with McCoy not riding the Curtis trained horse I'll pass on this one.
FOX RUN in the 5:15 is a horse I expected to go better than he did as a novice hurdler. Maybe he'll imprive improve this season, but I'll watch today.
Then, in the 5:45 I have STORM SURVIVOR, THEATRICAL STAR and JOIN TOGETHER.  I reckon JOIN TOGETHER will run best on softer ground. I'm expecting a big run from THEATRICAL STAR who coukd could be very exciting.  The worry is this trip willbtest his stamina.  STORM SURVIVOR represents last years winning connections,  but he's not well in with MERRION SQUARE and at 12/1 this horse coukd be great value.  The doubt is that all his best form is on right handed tracks, but Paul Nicholls loves a winner at this meeting and he's worth a small each way wager in what, to me, is the race of the day.

Selection
Chepstow 5:45, MERRION SQUARE, £5 ew @ 12/1 (available generally,  BOG)

Searching for Value

There are  couple of meetings today with some decent races. I always consider this double bill of Ludlow and Towcester to be the start of the jump season.

At Ludlow one from my alert list is IMPERIAL CIRCUS who runs today off OR118.  Given his hurdle mark is 124 he looks well in, but this is not an easy race as I'm not sure he stays this 3-mike plus trip. As such, odds of 4/1 are not attractive and I'm looking for 5/1+. Unfortunately,  he seems to be the most popular tip of the day and those odds seem unlikely.

I think an easier option is at Towcester in the 4:20 with the fav LUCYS GIRL. This mare did not stay 2m7f LTO and this drop in trip will be to her liking as will the ground.  Being a class 5 handicap hurdle, there is not much worthwhile form in the opposition,  and so odds of 7/2 (Paddy Power and Bet365) look more than fair.

Selection
Towcester 4:20, LUCYS GIRL; £20 win @ 7/2
(Paddy Power or Bet365, both BOG)

HI NOTE does the business place-only

There is more than one way to make a profit and yesterday was one of them. Place-only wagering is what I consider to be my secret weapon. It used to be available from high street bookies but disappeared in about 1981-82. I remember striking place-only doubles at the "Cheltenham Festival,  what fun.

HI NOTE secured the place money with a strong 2nd trying to concede concede 26lb to the winner.  That gave the blog £31.60 profit on the £10 place-only wager after commission.  The running total on the bank is now £2,101.60 with the 3 wagers so far providing a profit of £101.60.

No wager today but Hi Note could well be placed again at Fontwell in the 3:05.