What a race!
My only selection yesterday, HANDY ANDY, ran a cracker of a race looking the winner a long way out and, had some of his rivals stood up, he probably would have won well. He was left in front at the 3rd-last but he clearly hates running alone as, when in front, he slowed to allow the chasing pack to catch him. Thereon, he picked-up again and and looked full of running as the leading 3 came to the final fence where he was left alone again when the leader fell and the close-up 3rd nearly lost his rider. HANDY ANDY kept going for another 100 yards or so when he was still probably 8-lengths clear, when he virtually stopped. He's not a rogue of a horse, he just likes a bit of company, and when the eventual 1st-3 home caught and passed him, he picked-up again to hold on for 4th. No good to me as I was on eachway and, with 15 runners, 4th wasn't good enough for a place. But some readers of the blog must've traded out as HANDY ANDY touched 1.01 on the exchanges and, as he was trading at 22-25 before the off, that was for some (I'm sure) a tremendous result. Not bad for a 16/1 selection.
Unfortunately, what should have been a winner was actually a loser and the blog profit for this Jumps season now stands at £116.60 from £110 staked on 8 wagers.
Saturday is a big day for Cheltenham and there are a stack of horse alert runners:-
2:00 Monbeg Dude
2:35 Easter Meteor, Johns Spirit, Renard, Vulcanite and Malt Master
3:45 Lost Glory and Tour Des Champs
This is clearly a "pipe-opener" for Monbeg Dude. He was not much of a hurdler and isn't the quickest horse, that's why his best form is on heavy ground. Hopefully, he'll get round safe and this will prepare him for another crack at the Welsh National.
The 2:35 is a tremendous handicap chase over 2m4f. The trip is too far for Renard who does not get a yard more than 2m1f. That said, he's slipped to OR132 after a couple of (ordinary) runs over 2m5f+ and when he drops back to a suitable trip he should be followed. The lightly raced Malt Master will probably find the ground a bit too quick and Cheltenham will be a completely different experience for him as he's mainly raced RH on flattish tracks. I do not think Vulcanite will stay this sort of trip in as competitive a race as this, he certainly didn't stay 2m5f at the Cheltenham Festival in March. If Easter Meteor is going to win this jumps season, then it will be in this race as he does go well fresh. The thing is, he's rated 14lb more than last year (when he was 2nd) and this race looks more competitive than that one and so, I don't regard his odds of 5/1 as holding much value. It is JOHNS SPIRIT that looks the best value. Rated only OR129, just 4lb higher than when he won his only chase (from 8 starts) last season, he comes here essentially unexposed at this trip even tho' it could be his best trip. After that win over 2m4f at Sandown, he was mainly raced over 3-miles or on testing ground which exposed his stamina limitations. He has the speed to be able to win over 2-miles as a hurdler, in fact he was 6th in the Imperial Cup, so its no surprise that he's not won beyond 2m5f in 4 attempts. I think he'll track the behind what should be a hot pace, and then pick them off in the final half-mile. Current odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes look very generous.
The 3-mile-plus handicap chase at 3:45 looks another cracking race. I think Lost Glory has possibly been caught by the handicapper, but he should be on the premises in this which will probably be his final race before taking the winter off (he's not a lover of soft ground). I may play him on the place-only market. TOUR DES CHAMPS however looks to have a decent chance. He was highly tried last season, and finally came good in the Scottish National on good going. I consider him a 140+ horse, so his current rating of OR133 looks lenient. This is not an easy race to fathom, so not one to get too heavily involved in especially as there are a couple of horses who have lost form but could be on lenient ratings should they come right. Ace High for instance, is a very decent chaser on his day (he meets Lost Glory on 15lb better terms than when they last met) and if he can recover that form he'll be very dangerous. Similarly, Bradley was favorite for this race last year off a 3lb higher and was a strong finishing 4th. A repeat of that form will see him right in the frame.
Selections
Cheltenham 2:35 JOHNS SPIRIT, £5 ew and £5 win @ 14/1
Total = £15 staked
I am on with Ladbrokes but you will need to be quick I think.
Saturday, 19 October 2013
Friday, 18 October 2013
Cheltenham - tricky opening day
Back at Cheltenham for the opening day of the 2013-14 season, and a tricky day's racing it us too.
There are several runners from my alert list today.
3:15 CAPTAIN SUNSHINE, VIKING BLOND and ON THE BRIDGE
5:00 HANDY ANDY
5:30 FOXCUB
The 3:15 looks a tough handicap to solve. This 3 mile hurdle is very competitive. Last season, I noted CAPTAIN SUNSHINE when he fell at Kempton and he looks well treated today with OR140. His odds look poor value for his running style and if you fancy him it may be best to look for longer odds mid-race. He will need luck in running to win as he will appear late on the scene. VIKING BLOND was 2nd in this last year, but that ground was softer than it is today, and I think he may be outpaced. Of those from my alert list, I prefer ON THE BRIDGE who will be with the leaders and does not seem to have stopped improving. Of the others, I like horses with the benefit of a recent run, and MISSION COMPLETE fits the bill. He stays all day and usually carries bigger weights than his 10st 8lb today, so he'll think its his birthday. Thing is, nothing in this race looks value at the odds, so this is a watching race for me.
HANDY ANDY runs in the amateur riders race, the sort I usually avoid. However, this lighly raced chaser could have plenty of improvement in him and we know he stays the trip and handles the going. At 12/1 he looks worthy of an ew wager.
Finally FOXCUB impressed me when winning LTO. However, he has been hammered by the handicapper and raised 17lb.
Of the remainder of the racing, I fancy RUN AND BUTTER in the opener, and MINELLA FOR VALUE in the novice chase but, at their latest odds neithet offer value.
Selection
Cheltenham 5:00 HANDY ANDY, £5 ew @ 12/1 (available generally, use BOG bookie)
There are several runners from my alert list today.
3:15 CAPTAIN SUNSHINE, VIKING BLOND and ON THE BRIDGE
5:00 HANDY ANDY
5:30 FOXCUB
The 3:15 looks a tough handicap to solve. This 3 mile hurdle is very competitive. Last season, I noted CAPTAIN SUNSHINE when he fell at Kempton and he looks well treated today with OR140. His odds look poor value for his running style and if you fancy him it may be best to look for longer odds mid-race. He will need luck in running to win as he will appear late on the scene. VIKING BLOND was 2nd in this last year, but that ground was softer than it is today, and I think he may be outpaced. Of those from my alert list, I prefer ON THE BRIDGE who will be with the leaders and does not seem to have stopped improving. Of the others, I like horses with the benefit of a recent run, and MISSION COMPLETE fits the bill. He stays all day and usually carries bigger weights than his 10st 8lb today, so he'll think its his birthday. Thing is, nothing in this race looks value at the odds, so this is a watching race for me.
HANDY ANDY runs in the amateur riders race, the sort I usually avoid. However, this lighly raced chaser could have plenty of improvement in him and we know he stays the trip and handles the going. At 12/1 he looks worthy of an ew wager.
Finally FOXCUB impressed me when winning LTO. However, he has been hammered by the handicapper and raised 17lb.
Of the remainder of the racing, I fancy RUN AND BUTTER in the opener, and MINELLA FOR VALUE in the novice chase but, at their latest odds neithet offer value.
Selection
Cheltenham 5:00 HANDY ANDY, £5 ew @ 12/1 (available generally, use BOG bookie)
Wednesday, 16 October 2013
One selection - one winner @ 5/1
I will beat my own drum about this blog, I dont know of another that gives as many winners from so few selections.
Just the one selection yesterday, MULDOONS PICNIC and he came home at the great odds of 5/1. I think he'd have won despite the fallers in the race and the fact that his odds lengthened from the 4/1 in the morning (even tho' there was a non-runner in the race and he had only 3 rivals) was a gift.
This is why an alert system - filled with horses that I have selected on merit - pays its way. I had faith that my selection could jump and stay the trip. The only doubt was the going but, with the trainer being Kim Bailey who has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Grand National; there was nothing to worry about. If Kim Bailey thought the ground was good enough for his horse to race on, then his opinion was good enough for me.
Unfortunately, De Blacksmith was a non-runner in his race but I'm sure he'll be running soon.
So, we go forward with a bank of £2,121.60 after MULDOONS PICNIC added another £50 to the pot, meaning we have made a profit of £121.60 since 30th September from just £90 staked on 6 wagers.
Today, we have a meeting at Wetherby with the Bobby Renton chsde over 2m4f. This looks a tricky race to fathom, but we have an alert horse running, NO PLANNING from Mrs Sue Smiths stable. This horses best trip is 2m4f, so ignore his efforts over further last season. No doubt, he is better than OR126 and I'm expecting a good show from this horse today. I thought he'd be about 6/1 for this, so 10/1 (BetVictor) looks very good value. There are just 8 runners so I hope they all go to post, and an ew wager is recommended.
Selection
Wetherby 3:55, NO PLANNING, £5 ew @ 10/1 with BetVictor who go BOG and 5th odds a place 1, 2, 3.
Just the one selection yesterday, MULDOONS PICNIC and he came home at the great odds of 5/1. I think he'd have won despite the fallers in the race and the fact that his odds lengthened from the 4/1 in the morning (even tho' there was a non-runner in the race and he had only 3 rivals) was a gift.
This is why an alert system - filled with horses that I have selected on merit - pays its way. I had faith that my selection could jump and stay the trip. The only doubt was the going but, with the trainer being Kim Bailey who has won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Grand National; there was nothing to worry about. If Kim Bailey thought the ground was good enough for his horse to race on, then his opinion was good enough for me.
Unfortunately, De Blacksmith was a non-runner in his race but I'm sure he'll be running soon.
So, we go forward with a bank of £2,121.60 after MULDOONS PICNIC added another £50 to the pot, meaning we have made a profit of £121.60 since 30th September from just £90 staked on 6 wagers.
Today, we have a meeting at Wetherby with the Bobby Renton chsde over 2m4f. This looks a tricky race to fathom, but we have an alert horse running, NO PLANNING from Mrs Sue Smiths stable. This horses best trip is 2m4f, so ignore his efforts over further last season. No doubt, he is better than OR126 and I'm expecting a good show from this horse today. I thought he'd be about 6/1 for this, so 10/1 (BetVictor) looks very good value. There are just 8 runners so I hope they all go to post, and an ew wager is recommended.
Selection
Wetherby 3:55, NO PLANNING, £5 ew @ 10/1 with BetVictor who go BOG and 5th odds a place 1, 2, 3.
Tuesday, 15 October 2013
Time for a picnic?
Today we have an interesting meeting at Huntingdon, and there are a couple from my alert list running.
In the 3:50 DE BLACKSMITH has his chase debut and this horse is bred to be a chaser. He caught my eye last January when winning a hurdle race at Plumpton in game fashion. Highly tried after that, he was out of his depth. Not a great idea to bet on chasing debutants, especially as there is good support fir the likes of Bucking The Trend and Loudmouth, but 14/1 looks fair and I will have a nibble in the place-only market.
The 2nd horse running today from my alert list is MULDOONS PICNIC. He looks a decent chaser in the making after winning his last couple of races. It is the soft ground that is a worry and so I would not take a small price, but 4/1 looks fair for a small win wager.
Selection:
Huntingdon 4:50, MULDOONS PICNIC, £10 win @ 4/1 (William Hill and Stan James, both go BOG).
In the 3:50 DE BLACKSMITH has his chase debut and this horse is bred to be a chaser. He caught my eye last January when winning a hurdle race at Plumpton in game fashion. Highly tried after that, he was out of his depth. Not a great idea to bet on chasing debutants, especially as there is good support fir the likes of Bucking The Trend and Loudmouth, but 14/1 looks fair and I will have a nibble in the place-only market.
The 2nd horse running today from my alert list is MULDOONS PICNIC. He looks a decent chaser in the making after winning his last couple of races. It is the soft ground that is a worry and so I would not take a small price, but 4/1 looks fair for a small win wager.
Selection:
Huntingdon 4:50, MULDOONS PICNIC, £10 win @ 4/1 (William Hill and Stan James, both go BOG).
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