Exeter chase debut for Yanworth

All eyes will be on Exeter today and the chasing debut of Grade-1 hurdler Yanworth, winner of 8 of his 10 hurdle races - both defeats came at the Cheltenham Festival. He wont have it all his own way, as also in the field is solid handicapper Sternrubin who has been freshened up for this jumps debut with a season on the flat. I really like Sternrubin, he's a tough street-fighter of a horse and it will come as no surprise to me if he pushed the fav all the way to the line.

Before I look at the other races on the Exeter card, yesterday I had a detailed look at the 3-mile hurdle run at Plumpton. Unfortunately, as the ground loosened and became good-to-soft, we had a couple of non-runners in the race which included the fav (and my selection) Beneficial Joe , who was pulled-out at 3:55pm just 35mins before the race.  I quickly referred to my analysis on the blog (never rely on memory if you have taken the trouble to make notes) and reinforced my belief that the new market leaders (Clondow Bistro @ 9/4 and Linguine @ 7/2) were able to be opposed and so sought a likely winner. With Invicta Lake @ 6/1 returning from injury and 18mths off the track, I focused on Oh Land Abloom - a 7yo that had a win over 2m7f plus a couple of 2nd's at 3-mile and (according to Racing Post Ratings) was a consistent performer at a level on a par with his OR129 rating. With Linguine trying to make all and running his best race in some time, the strong pace was to the benefit of Oh Land Abloom, and he was going very well as they raced along the back straight for the 3rd time on this small Plumpton circuit and, apart from when he steadied on jumping the final flight, his jockey - 7lb claimer Harry Teal - knew he had the race won. 

I think these stayers hurdle races are a really good betting medium as I'm convinced that very few horses truly stay 3-miles over hurdles when there is a decent pace being set. There are a couple of handicaps at Exeter today, a 3-mile Class 3 chase at 3:20pm with 16-runners, and a 2m7f Class 4 hurdle race at 3:50pm.

The chase handicap looks very tricky to fathom, and the betting reflects this with the current fav being Vieux Lille at 5/1, and while he's a 3-time course winner over hurdles, he didn't look to stay this trip when running over C&D last November. Has Cernunnos finally found his trip at 3-mile following his LTO win? Personally, I wouldn't bet on it despite being on a great handicap mark. I'm not convinced by Duelling Banjos or Bindon Mill, and only Umberto D'Olivate will know if he's going to win today. The more I look at this race, the more wide-open it looks and if you are going to have a wager in it then I think it may pay to go with reliable old campaigner Alvarado who may be 12yo but will stay all day long and 1st-time-out may be when you have to catch him. He's 16/1 with Stan James and he could very easily be among the 1st-4 and may even reach the winners' enclosure with a bit of luck.

The 2m7f handicap hurdle looks more of a betting race to me. I took a look at this race yesterday evening and a couple jumped to the fore: the 6yo Sutter's Mill and the 5yo Waterloo Warrior.
Sutter's Mill stays 3-mile well, in fact he may find this 2m7f trip on the short side, but his negative is that he's a plodder and not improving - but he is consistent. Waterloo Warrior is bred to be a decent staying chaser, and he best race over hurdles to date was over C&D last March when he stayed-on well to be 2nd. The fav for the race is the 5yo mare Midnight Glory who was last seen coming 3rd to Beer Goggles, and that (in hindsight) looks decent form, and she could be well-in running off OR113. Of the others, I'm surprised Dreamsoftheatre is at 10/1 for this as we know he stays very well, and he's usually consistent, plus he won LTO over 3m1f.  Up 9lb for that win to OR114, my doubt is that the trip may be a tad too short and the ground may be a bit soft.
All-in-all a tricky race to fathom but I liked the way MIDNIGHT GLORY was ridden LTO by Richard Johnson, who takes the ride again today, as it was a confident effort but (unfortunately) he met an exceptionally well-handicapped winner that day in Beer Goggles.

Review of the weekend & Plumpton pointers

Overall, it was a really good weekend for me on the horses.
I've been gently easing my way into the jumping season, and we've already seen some strong form lines coming through.
On Thursday, trainer Venetia Williams had her first chase winner of the season with Vic De Touzaine at Carlisle and she was unlucky not to have a 2nd on Saturday with Burtons Well who was beaten just a neck by the race-fit and LTO winner Romain De Senam.  I can see this race producing a lot of future winners as I've rated the race via 3rd-placed Voix D'Eau who I thought ran to his best (tail flashing on the run in) and he will probably benefit from a drop in trip to under 2m4f.   Burtons Well is lightly raced and this ground was probably as quick as he wants but he went down fighting and on soft or heavy NTO he looks one to be on. This was a big step-up by Romain De Senam, but there may not be much improvement left in him as this was the 5yo's 16th run for Paul Nicholls and his 9th chase race.
Paul Nicholls has certainly hit the ground running as he's had 15 winners from his 45 runners in the past 14-days. I was on Friday's winner Orbasa at Wincanton and this talented yet temperamental horse finally put his head in front with probably his best run since he was 2nd at Newton Abbott in April. We you consider that he was only beaten a length when in-receipt of 5lb by Definitly Red at Ayr in April 2016, and that one is now rated 22lb higher, you have to wonder if "finally" the game has clicked into place. Nicholls has followed that win up with another double on Saturday, and then 4 wins at Kempton on Sunday from the 6 horses he sent there - and he had 2 in the same race; so 4 wins from 5 races contested. I took advantage of the early 7/4 about Old Guard in the "Listed" hurdle race over 2-mile as his only real danger was stablemate San Benedeto.  However, it was really no contest as San Benedeto was a consistent but ordinary hurdler before he went chasing, and Old Guard had show he was at least 10lb better than him in this sphere - and it was no contest.
On Saturday for me the feature jump race of the day was at Ffos Las, where the 9yo The New One took the Welsh Champion (handicap) Hurdle showing his ability is not dimming with age; he remains a rock-solid 160 hurdler over 2-mile.

Today, we have the first winter meeting of the season at Plumpton, my local jump racing track. This is a tight little left-handed track with a particularly awkward fence at the start of the back straight which is on a downhill slope - it can catch out an over-exuberant jumper. The race I'm looking at here is the 3m 1f handicap hurdle at 4:30pm, mainly as in my opinion stayers hurdle races are one of the safest betting mediums in racing - not many horses truly stay 3-miles. I'm therefore taken by the fav Beneficial Joe who has won 3 times at 2m7f - 3m. Sure, he's not looked like staying much further in 3 completed races beyond 3m 1f but this opposition looks weak. The 2nd-fav Clondaw Bisto needs to prove he stays this far as he's not raced beyond 2m5f. Linguine stays 3-mile but his 7 x 2nd's from 18 races proves he's one-paced at the business end.  The 10yo Teak would be interesting if he could recover his from of a few years ago but, LTO, he looked a shadow of his former self. Similarly, the 10yo Invicta Lake could be on my shortlist, but this is his first run since being injured in Feb-16. I really cannot consider any of the others in the race, and BENEFICIAL JOE should merely have to complete to take this race.  Curently best-priced at 5/2 (Bet365) and at 4.00 (or 3/1) on Betfair, I can see this one starting at 2/1 or maybe even 7/4.

The Bobby Renton Chase at Wetherby

What I enjoy about jump racing are these good quality races that are run mid-week at the provincial tracks. Wetherby is in West Yorkshire right in the centre of the "golden triangle" formed by the cities of York, Leeds and Harrogate. In my opinion, the course provides a proper test of the chaser, it being a flat, left-hand oval with no open-ditches in the four fences in the straight that may catch out a tiring horse.

Today's Bobby Renton Handicap Chase at 3:45pm is run over 2m3f and has attracted 7 runners, headed by the fav Delusionofgrandeur trained locally by Sue Smith, who also runs Straidnahanna in this race. Delutionofgrandeur has won over 2m4f as a novice hurdler, but he's never run over a trip this short as a chaser, in fact his last win was at this track in March over 3-miles. He could do well at this trip, but in my opinion he will be at his best at trips of 3-mile and further. And the same can be said for Straidnahanna who won last season over 3m6f, although he has a good cruising speed and he could get into a good rhythm.

When I looked at this race yesterday afternoon, I was immediately drawn to Monbeg River who ran 4 times last season without winning, but with a lot of promise. Unfortunately, he was brought-down when racing over 2m4f at Aintree in December, and he ended the campaign when racing over today's C&D in January.  That was thought to be run on ground too soft for him, and he was beaten 6-lengths into 3rd. A repeat of that effort should see him in the frame, and any improvement will make him hard to beat. The biggest issue for me is that his trainer Martin Todhunter has such a poor strike-rate, and his stats for Wetherby are very poor: just 3 wins from 42 runners in the past 5 years.

Due to the support for Monbeg River, the odds on After Hours have lengthened to 4/1, and this 8yo looks to be on an attractive rating of OR120 considering he improved with every run last season without winning; coming home 2nd in 5 of his last 6 races. He jumps well, runs prominently, and should have no problem with the trip; probably his only issue could be the ground as he "may" want it a bit softer.

The French import Ballotin has his first run for Philip Hobbs, and this is his only runner today - Hobbs has a impressive 28% strike-rate here! Ballotin chased home subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner Peace And Co in June 2014, after which Peace And Co was sold on to Nicky Henderson.  Ballotin then chased home Mick Jazz who is now a OR144 hurdler with Gordon Elliot. When chasing in France, Ballotin beat Buttercup who has since moved to Venetia Williams and ran-up a hat-trick of chase wins earlier this year and is now rated OR126. I've no doubt that Ballotin will be fit today and the ground and trip are perfect for him. His rating of OR139 looks a bit steep though, and while his amateur rider will take off 7lb he will need to be at the top of his game in this race.

I like the look of Katgary and he goes very well off a break - a repeat of his run in March (after a 9 month break) when 2nd to San Benedeto would see him hard to beat today - but I have no confidence in his amateur rider Liam Quinlan who has had only 3 rides in the UK in the past 5 seasons, and this is his first for Pauline Robson. 

Finally, we have Definite Future who is sent here by trainer Kerry Lee who has only sent 7 runners here in the past 5 seasons from her base in Hereford, and 3 have won. She has also booked jockey Jamie Moore and that suggests they mean business. This trip and ground will be perfect, LTO over 2-miles was too short - and a repeat of his run at Worcester in June off OR132 (he runs off OR137 today) will see him go close. Currently 10/1, DEFINITE FUTURE certainly looks the value in what is a tricky race as while his latest run may have been over an insufficient trip, being only 30 days ago it means he is proven race-fit.

When to bet with confidence

No luck for Bigbadjohn on Saturday as, despite going well and and occupying a prominent position, he clouted the 6th fence and catapulted his jockey out of the saddle. 

The Chepstow meeting is a favourite of trainer Paul Nicholls, and he won the opening hurdle race there of the 2-day meeting with his 4yo Dynamite Dollars, and then followed-up with the mare If You Say Run in the 2nd race on the days card, and he was unlucky to bump into the well-handicapped Silver Streak in the 4yo 2-mile limited handicap otherwise his runner Dolos would have made it 3 wins on the day for the trainer. Silver Streak looks capable of following-up. Evan Williams, trainer of Silver Streak, followed-up with Court Minstrel in the Grade 3 hurdle and this horse seems to have found his mojo this summer and, considering he was competitive off OR157 in 2015-16 this 10yo is worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks as he is unlikely to go up much from his current Or142 rating.

The feature race at Chepstow on Saturday was the 3-mile Class 2 handicap chase (in which Bigbadjohn unseated his rider). The winner was Rock The Kasbah but I was not particularly impressed as his jockey (champion) Richard Johnson was hard at work a long way out and it was probably only the inexperience of the runner-up Petrou (this was only his 3rd chase race) that denied the useful claimer Bridget Andrews a winning ride. In 3rd was the well-exposed Ballykan, and I've rated this race using him as a yardstick and so I cannot see the winner following up.  Petrou however, is another matter, and he was yet another advert for the talent of his trainer Dan Skelton as, since joining him in May (5 months ago) he's won 4 and been runner-up twice from the 7 races he's competed in. He goes onto the alert list, along with the horse that beat him LTO the 7yo Midnight Shot trained by Charlie Longsdon.

On Sunday's card at Chepstow, I was most interested in the Veterans' Handicap Chase over 3-mile and, in these races, I focus on the youngest horses in the race which are the 10yo's.  I may be wrong, but I think last season only one Veterans' handicap chase was won by a horse older than 10yo which I think was the 11yo Loose Chips at Ascot in April this year. Sure enough, of the 14 runners on Sunday, 6 were older than 10yo and none of them finished in the 1st-3.  The race was won by the 10yo Bob Ford who was having his first run for trainer Alastair Ralph since leaving Rebecca Curtis. The horse was bought by Dr Richard Newland (who is better know as the trainer of Grand National winner Pineau De Re) at the sales in March for £7000 and he clearly thought there was money to be won with him as he last won in December 2015. I overlooked him for the race on Sunday as - despite his rating having slipped from OR142 to OR122 - all his previous winning form had been on heavy ground and I thought the "good" ground at Chepstow would be too quick for him.  Although he is reported as opening in the betting at 8/1, you can take it from me that at 11am on Sunday morning Bob Ford was available at 18/1.  As such, the gamble on him to an SP of 5/1 was phenomenal and he must have easily repaid his purchase price in winnings from the ring. This gives a valuable lesson in gambling on the jumps: if you know your horse (selection) is fit and well, stays the trip and is well handicapped, then you can bet with confidence.