The Ladbrokes Trophy run at Newbury on 2nd December

Another tremendous day on Saturday, and at this time of year we are certainly spoiled with the volume of good jump racing.  The feature race of the day is the inaugural running of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (which is a renamed Hennessey Gold Cup). Outside of the Grand National, this race is (in my opinion) the most prestigious staying chase handicap of the season. The best horses that win this are capable of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

 

I’ve had some good luck in this race over the years, and I’ve tipped recent winners Smad Place in 2015 and Native River in 2016. Both were short in the betting market, and generally you should not look further than 10/1 for the winner.  However, this year I am going out on a limb and will be wagering on a horse that’s been at odds longer than 40/1 for most of this week, and that is Missed Approach - a horse that I selected and wagered on for this race on 15th September.

 

Back then in September I was re-watching the Cheltenham Festival races, looking for clues, and (again) I thought that the 4-mile NH Chase provided some of the best novice chase form seen at the Festival.Having disputed the lead for most of that race, MISSED APPROACH was looking like a potential winner coming to 3-out where he lost the lead there to the eventual winner Tiger Roll.  He then resolutely stayed-on to be 2nd (with A Genie In Abottle well behind in 5^th). The following month he confirmed that 4-mile wasn't his trip when he ran next in the Scottish National. As such, I think he will relish a return to the 3m2f of Saturday’s race run at Newbury.

He comes into this race on OR145 and when you consider he slammed Label Des Obeaux over 3-miles at level weights last January - and Label Des Obeaux went on to win a Class 2, 3-mile novice chase handicap on Scottish National day at Ayr and is now rated OR153 - you can see how well MISSED APPROACH is handicapped - he could easily be 10lb well-in on OR145. Interestingly, MISSED APPROACH won a 3-mile hurdle race at Newbury's "Hennessey" meeting back in 2015 and I think this race - the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (handicap) - is tailor-made for the horse. We know he likes Newbury, goes well fresh (had a pipe-opener over hurdles recently), stays the trip well, and he's well handicapped: what more can you ask for? Well, he has the very capable Richard Johnson booked for the ride, and that must be worth a few pounds advantage. Trainer Warren Greatrex has aimed the horse at this race and this will be his “Gold Cup”.

 

What of the opposition? I don’t expect Coneygree to recapture old glories in this race, along with Whisper he’s a bit long in the tooth. If American wins this off OR157 on his seasonal debut then he’s a viable Gold Cup contender, but I don’t think he is, and he possibly needs to find over 7lb of improvement to win. The race fell well for Carole’s Destrier last year (when 2^nd) and that may not happen again.  Label Des Obeaux is poorly handicapped according to his own trainer, and I’m not confident that A Genie In Abottle has the stamina for this race.  The Mullins trained Total Recall is far too short in the betting for what he’s done, I’d be looking for 12/1 plus about him.

A couple of horses that you cannot ignore are Cogry and Singlefarmpayment, with the latter now 5lb better-off for the 4-length defeat when they met at Cheltenham. Personally, I reckon that Cogry should maintain the advantage, as Singlefarmpayment seems to want everything to fall right to win. However, Sam Twiston-Davies isn't in the saddle on Cogry, and he was thought to be the reason behind the horse jumping better LTO.  The other horse that I like the look of is Pleasant Man who won the "Badger" LTO and comes here in top form.  Vyta Du Roc was 6th in this race last season off OR143 and is 3lb lower this time, but I just think he needs marathon trips to show his best nowadays.

Overall, I think this years race looks a bit below par, and I am more than happy to take on the market leaders who appear to be there mainly on reputation - be it past or perceived - and not on true merit. The only horse under 10/1 that I can consider betting on is Singlefarmpayment, but he just does not give me the right feeling.  I'm already on MISSED APPROACH at 66/1 antepost, and the preparation has gone just as I expected - in fact, it's better as I never expected Richard Johnson to be in the saddle.  Fingers crossed it will be a winning combination.

Betfair Chase at Haydock

This is a big day for jump racing and we were reminded this week of 2011 when Kauto Star came back from what some considered "oblivion" to win the Betfair Chase at the age of 11yo.
Can Cue Card repeat that feat? Well, I think he has a better chance of winning that Bristol De Mai, mainly because of the trip being and almost 3m2f. On both occasions that Bristol De Mai has race beyond 3-mile his stamina has failed him. However, as much as I love Cue Card, I think there is a horse in the race that can beat him in this race and that's TEA FOR TWO.

We have an early start to racing and so I'm writing this on Friday evening. Any updates will be posted or advised via twitter on @wayward_lad.

Tea For Two loves 3-mile plus and a stamina test. He was doing his best work in the final quarter-mile of the "King George" last December, and he beat Cue Card over 3m1f at Aintree last April. He had a warm-up race behind Smad Place over an inadequate trip last month at Aintree and, for me, he represents the best value by far in the race, being generally available at 10/1. He is certainly better than Outlander at this trip by about 7lb on my reckoning, and he has plenty of good form on soft/heavy ground. In my opinion TEA FOR TWO should be the same odds or shorter than Outlander, and Outlander is 5/1 - in fact I'd have Bristol De Mai, Cue Card and Tea For Two at joint-fav's.

Earlier on the Haydock card, we could well see one of the easier winners of the day when COURTOWN OSCAR goes for the 3m4f handicap chase at 12:40pm.  Back in Feb2016, Courtown Oscar beat subsequent Grand National winner One For Arthur at Carlisle over 3-mile on heavy ground. Yes, he was in-receipt of 16lb that day but he won easily and his current rating of OR130 could underestimate his ability.  We've not seen any decent form from Emperor's Choice for 2-years, and Russe Blanc has also had his day in the sun. The heavy ground is against Hainan, and the same can be said for Belmount. However, Dawson City who is a horse we have followed on the blog for the past 12 months will relish the heavy ground and the trip, and he could be the one to chase home Courtown Oscar.  I will likely be placing a reverse forecast on this pair.

The day's racing is top class, and I haven't even looked at Ascot's card yet. The Graduation Chase at 1:15pm looks a cracker, and I think CLAN DES OBEAUX can defy the weight he gives away to Born Survivor and Big River and win this race again for Paul Nicholls. It is not a race to place a wager on though, and this is just a race for watching.

At Ascot, the feature race there is the Christy 1965 Chase over 2m5f run at 2:05pm and on my own ratings I have Top Notch about 3lb ahead of Smad Place and with the benefit of a 3lb pull in the weights, TOP NOTCH looks the value at 3/1 (William Hill and Betfred). I'm sure Smad Place will give his all and he usually finds over 5lb of improvement for his seasonal debut, but he may find that his younger rival has also improved since last season and he has also had a spin over hurdles. 

Also on the Ascot card is the Shawbrook Handicap, a Class 2 chase over an extended 2-miles. This was won last year by ex-Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy and he returns again but I feel this year he is not going to be up to it. The Paul Nicholls trained San Benedeto should not be far away, but I feel he is a better horse over further. Were Vaniteux in better form I would nominate him as a selection, as I feel he is a 160+ chaser at his best but he rarely shows that form.  Long term readers of this column will know that I have affection for Upsilon Bleu who, if he were trained south of Birmingham rather than north of Manchester, would be rated a tad higher than OR142. Unfortunately, he was well beaten off OR143 last year in this race. However, in 2nd last year was QUITE BY CHANCE and he looks a better horse this year, comes into the race in top form as looks value at 9/2.

What a cracking day of racing, let's hope it all goes well and we have some great memories.
To recap, my advised wagers for Saturday are:-
Haydock 12:40pm COURTOWN OSCAR @ 9/4 with a reverse forecast including Dawson City
Haydock 3:00pm TEA FOR TWO @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, 10/1 elsewhere)
Ascot 2:05pm TOP NOTCH @ 3/1 (Betfred, 11/4 elsewhere)
Ascot 3:15pm QUITE BY CHANCE @ 9/2 available generally

Blog writing can be hard work

Believe it or not, but I stared writing this blog on Saturday morning!
I wasn't able to post it on the day due to a family commitment at lunchtime and by the time I got back to it, the day's racing was gone.  I did post my selection for the BetVictor Gold Cup on twitter (Starchitect who ran 2nd beaten only a neck) but I'm not sure how many saw it. for the time-being, I will be posting any selections I make on twitter; the reason being is that it is near impossible for me to put in the form study that I used to do (now I don't know how I did it before).
That, and I also have "issues" with my wrist which is made worse by using the laptop to search the formlines.  Typing isn't so bad, as that is more use of my fingers, but using the "mouse" requires thumb use and that is painful these days.  It has been creeping up on me for a couple of years, but now it is almost intolerable.  To try and alleviate the situation, I've even removed most of my social media apps from my phone.

I also started a new job last week, working from an office in Canary Wharf just a stones throw from the Racing Post offices, and now that retirement is probably less than 10 years away I'm having to concentrate more and more on paid work rather than blogging. The Pension Pot has to be filled.

As I have written before, I'm finding value is getting harder for the average punter to find, and you certainly won't find it in the big handicaps unless you are fortunate. Recently, I've been concentrating on smaller races which are more specialist, such as 3-mile handicap hurdles.  What I'm finding is that the formlines for the jump racing is more than reliable enough to make a decent profit, in fact it has reinforced my belief that jump racing is a better gambling medium than flat racing. I'm sure flat racing fans will disagree. However, the compromise that I've had to make to take advantage is that more and more I'm having to break the "no less than 9/4" rule for my wagers.  For instance, on Sunday, Fox Norton was sent off the 4/5 fav for the Shloer chase despite having about 10lb in-hand over his 4 rivals. I did point out he looked tremendous value the day before the race (on twitter) and I duly took advantage. The only way I could see him not winning was if he didn't finish the race and, as he's never fallen before, that was unlikely. I thought he should have been 1/3 maybe even 1/4 - he certainly won in that manner.

We've a good weekend of jump racing coming up, and I will be making some notes on Thursday with the intention of posting a blog on Saturday morning.   

Badger Ales Handicap Chase at Wincanton

Updated @ 0930 Saturday morning due to ground at Wincanton

A big Saturday of jump racing with meetings at Aintree, Wincanton and Kelso.
The Aintree meeting has some decent horses turning out, and what I've noticed in recent weeks is how much trainers are using 3-mile hurdle races to bring their handicap chasers to peak fitness without affecting their chase rating. The 3-mile handicap hurdle at 1:40pm has Vyta Du Roc, Earthmoves, and Bon Chic amongst the 10-runners and they all spent last season chasing. I expect Vyta Du Roc is under preparation for a run in the Ladbroke Gold Cup at Newbury on 2nd December, as he ran in a hurdle race at this meeting last season before going to Newbury .
This particular 3-mile hurdle race looks a bit weak and I am prepared to oppose the 5yo fav Louis' Vac Pouch as he's not yet raced over 3-miles. Winnintry was well beaten behind Beer Goggles LTO and although 10lb better-off for that race he does not look good enough. Beer Goggles has gone up 30lb in the handicap to OR152 since winning at Ayr in April and he was beaten over C&D in May off OR135. Forza Milan hasn't proven he has the stamina for this trip, and he was beaten LTO over 2m7f by HOLLY BUSH HENRY and it is this horse who looks the value. HOLLY BUSH HENRY won again at Plumpton off OR129, and I thought he was unlucky LTO at Cheltenham and I think he's worth another chance at Class 2 level.

The feature race at Wincanton is the Badger Handicap Chase over 3m1f being run at 3:35pm.  This race looks wide-open with the current fav being the Paul Nicholls trained Present Man at 15/2 and he does not look good enough to me.  Nicholls sends 3 horses for the race including Mr Mix and Southfield Theatre. Last year, Southfield Theatre looked poised to win when falling at the final fence. In his only other run after that, he did not show the same zip and so comes here off a 337-day break with fitness to prove.  However, I do like MR MIX who has improved with each of his 4 runs as a chaser and looks a major player based on his LTO win on 29Oct here at Wincanton over 3m2f.  Based on his hurdles form he looks weighted to beat  the current 2nd fav Yala Enki, a horse who likes to dominate and when he does he's up to his rating of OR151. He may not get the free-reign he needs to win though and his trainer Venetia Williams also has Vic De Touzaine and he looks ahead of the handicapper on OR139, as the horse he beat LTO - Boric - then ran a cracker to be 2nd in the Durham National. The worry with Vic De Touzaine is the ground and it may be too quick for him unless it turns soft.
I think Southfield Royale has the potential to be at 150+ chaser but his two runs last season were well below that level and he needs to show he is a player again.
Fletchers Flyer is also ahead of the handicapper on OR143 but he only ran twice last season and the 9yo will almost certainly need this run - he probably has one good handicap win in him. 
I cannot see Double Shuffle winning off OR151, or Theatre Guide winning off OR154. 

At the odds I like MR MIX at 10/1 (available generally on Friday evening), and I can see there being a bit of a gamble on the horse in the morning and it would not surprise me to see him start the 5/1 fav. Younger horses have a good record in the race with 5 of the last 10 winners being 6yo or 7yo, and the longest odds winner in the past 10 years was Court By Surprise at 16/1 in 2014. 

UPDATE:
The ground at Wincanton is now officially soft and that puts VIC DE TOUZAINE firmly in the picture. As such, I have split my stake between the pair of MR MIX and VIC DE TOUZAINE.