Betfair Chase at Haydock

This is a big day for jump racing and we were reminded this week of 2011 when Kauto Star came back from what some considered "oblivion" to win the Betfair Chase at the age of 11yo.
Can Cue Card repeat that feat? Well, I think he has a better chance of winning that Bristol De Mai, mainly because of the trip being and almost 3m2f. On both occasions that Bristol De Mai has race beyond 3-mile his stamina has failed him. However, as much as I love Cue Card, I think there is a horse in the race that can beat him in this race and that's TEA FOR TWO.

We have an early start to racing and so I'm writing this on Friday evening. Any updates will be posted or advised via twitter on @wayward_lad.

Tea For Two loves 3-mile plus and a stamina test. He was doing his best work in the final quarter-mile of the "King George" last December, and he beat Cue Card over 3m1f at Aintree last April. He had a warm-up race behind Smad Place over an inadequate trip last month at Aintree and, for me, he represents the best value by far in the race, being generally available at 10/1. He is certainly better than Outlander at this trip by about 7lb on my reckoning, and he has plenty of good form on soft/heavy ground. In my opinion TEA FOR TWO should be the same odds or shorter than Outlander, and Outlander is 5/1 - in fact I'd have Bristol De Mai, Cue Card and Tea For Two at joint-fav's.

Earlier on the Haydock card, we could well see one of the easier winners of the day when COURTOWN OSCAR goes for the 3m4f handicap chase at 12:40pm.  Back in Feb2016, Courtown Oscar beat subsequent Grand National winner One For Arthur at Carlisle over 3-mile on heavy ground. Yes, he was in-receipt of 16lb that day but he won easily and his current rating of OR130 could underestimate his ability.  We've not seen any decent form from Emperor's Choice for 2-years, and Russe Blanc has also had his day in the sun. The heavy ground is against Hainan, and the same can be said for Belmount. However, Dawson City who is a horse we have followed on the blog for the past 12 months will relish the heavy ground and the trip, and he could be the one to chase home Courtown Oscar.  I will likely be placing a reverse forecast on this pair.

The day's racing is top class, and I haven't even looked at Ascot's card yet. The Graduation Chase at 1:15pm looks a cracker, and I think CLAN DES OBEAUX can defy the weight he gives away to Born Survivor and Big River and win this race again for Paul Nicholls. It is not a race to place a wager on though, and this is just a race for watching.

At Ascot, the feature race there is the Christy 1965 Chase over 2m5f run at 2:05pm and on my own ratings I have Top Notch about 3lb ahead of Smad Place and with the benefit of a 3lb pull in the weights, TOP NOTCH looks the value at 3/1 (William Hill and Betfred). I'm sure Smad Place will give his all and he usually finds over 5lb of improvement for his seasonal debut, but he may find that his younger rival has also improved since last season and he has also had a spin over hurdles. 

Also on the Ascot card is the Shawbrook Handicap, a Class 2 chase over an extended 2-miles. This was won last year by ex-Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy and he returns again but I feel this year he is not going to be up to it. The Paul Nicholls trained San Benedeto should not be far away, but I feel he is a better horse over further. Were Vaniteux in better form I would nominate him as a selection, as I feel he is a 160+ chaser at his best but he rarely shows that form.  Long term readers of this column will know that I have affection for Upsilon Bleu who, if he were trained south of Birmingham rather than north of Manchester, would be rated a tad higher than OR142. Unfortunately, he was well beaten off OR143 last year in this race. However, in 2nd last year was QUITE BY CHANCE and he looks a better horse this year, comes into the race in top form as looks value at 9/2.

What a cracking day of racing, let's hope it all goes well and we have some great memories.
To recap, my advised wagers for Saturday are:-
Haydock 12:40pm COURTOWN OSCAR @ 9/4 with a reverse forecast including Dawson City
Haydock 3:00pm TEA FOR TWO @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, 10/1 elsewhere)
Ascot 2:05pm TOP NOTCH @ 3/1 (Betfred, 11/4 elsewhere)
Ascot 3:15pm QUITE BY CHANCE @ 9/2 available generally