The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 4

Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised

Supreme Hurdle:  IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power) LOST 

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)

Champion Hurdle: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill

NH Chase: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 & Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked

NH Chase: Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior / Broadway: Gerri Colombe & Thyme Hill / 

Ryanair: Shishkin (banker) 

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

Total Staked to Date: £130 (Note: £20 returned NRNB)

We had the 5-day declarations for the 2nd day of the Festival yesterday (Thurs 9th) and the main impact on the portfolio is that Impaire Et Passe remains in the Ballymore Hurdle, and is almost certain to run in that race for which he's the 7/4 fav. This is a bit of a blow, as I think he'd go close in the Supreme Hurdle and we hold a 10/1 voucher on that race. Fingers crossed that Il Etait Temps runs for us in the Supreme.  Mullins has a stranglehold on the novice hurdles, and he probably has 4 potential winners of the Ballymore to choose from. Another odd declaration was Mighty Potter in the "Broadway" over 3-mile, because if he runs in this race then he wont be able to run in the "Turners" on Thursday, a race for which he's a strong fav to win.  There are a lot of double-entries in the "Broadway", and I expect this race to cut-up which could prove advantageous to Thunder Rock: I can't see him winning this but he could sneak 3rd. There are no surprises in the QM Champion Chase, but with only 9 declared (and likely all going to post) then it's "fingers crossed" that my long-odds trebles (see my blog of 31Dec) involving (QMCC) Nube Negra; (Ryanair) Shiskin & Conflated; (Stayers' Hurdle) Flooring Porter; and (Gold Cup) Stattler come to fruition. 

Onto Day-3, Thursday and the day starts with...

Turners Novice Chase (Grade 1) over 2m4f

With 14 horses standing their ground, this race is taking more shape than some others. It pays to have a horse that has some jumping experience at Graded level. There have been some absolutely top-class winners of this race, and the market is usually reflective of the chances of contenders. Mighty Potter heads the betting as the 5/4 fav, and there appears to be no chink in his armour, which is good for readers of the blog as we have him at 7/2 and in a double with the "Arkle" fav El Fabiolo. What can beat him? I will be surprised if any of the other Irish-trained entries can get close, although I will respect the chance of Sir Gerhard (who won the Ballymore hurdle last year) if he takes part. Pay attention to the "Broadway" chase on Wednesday, as if Gerri Colombe and Thunder Rock do well in that, it will give the form of Balco Coastal - who split them at Sandown LTO - a big boost. Another to keep an eye on is Stage Star, who won over this C&D in January with 12st pretty much making-all. He was well fancied for the Ballymore last year, but pulled-up; even so I'd say he has the potential to win a race like this.

Pertemps Final H'cap Hurdle over 3-miles

There's only 28 runners to consider, and a max of 24 can go to post, so rather than speculate I'm going straight into form assessment. Remember, I posted last years 25/1 winner Third Wind on the morning of the race! These 3-mile handicap hurdles take a certain type of horse to win, and strong form-lines can be overlooked. 

Ryanair Chase over 2m5f

Cheltenham experience is a must when seeking the winner of this race, and the betting is a good guide with 6 of the last 7 winners going off at odds no longer than 9/2. Readers of the blog will hopefully be cheering on Shishkin as he completes the final leg of a successful winning treble; he looks near unbeatable in this race based on his win LTO at Ascot.  He may not have many rivals to contend with, as Blue Lord will likely go for the QMCC; Conflated for the Gold Cup; and I will be surprised if Chancun Pour Soi runs. What will follow Shishkin home? Janadil was 2nd last year, but benefitted from the fall of Conflated 2-out. Fury Road just isn't quick enough when it matters; and I'm not sure about Envoi Allen - he could be 160+ or maybe he just made the most of an opportunity when winning at Dromore in November? I think French Dynamite is under-estimated here: he was just btn by Ga Law in the Paddy Power h'cap giving the winner 6lb; he clearly didn't stay 3-mile when running in the Grade 1 Savills Chase on 28Dec; and had he not been impeded LTO by the faller (Haut En Couleurs) I think he'd have btn Fakir D'oudairies - in which case he'd be 2nd fav for this race. Sure, Ga Law is improving, but so is French Dynamite and I think he is the better horse. By-the-bye, both of these horses are well-handicapped at the moment, and I'm not sure why they are not contesting one of the handicaps instead. Given that Shishkin is +10lb better than anything else in the race, it's pointless having an antepost wager for something destined (barring a cruel twist of fate) to run 2nd or 3rd. Better to wait until the day and play a straight forecast.

Stayers' Hurdle over 3-miles

This year we have one of the most open, and murkiest, Stayers' Hurdles since 2018. I know Lisnagar Oscar won at 50/1 in 2020 but let's be honest, that was a strange race which should have been won by Paisley Park who, both before and after the race, was the best staying hurdler around. We have 15 entries as of this afternoon, with a couple of supplemented runners: Gold Tweet was expected, but what is Mullins planning with entering Asterion Forlonge? I can only think Mullins is giving the owners of Asterion (who also own Shishkin) the opportunity to "enjoy" their Ryanair win by remaining in the paddock area after the presentation. As for Gold Tweet, do not under-estimate this horse: he comes here worthy of a place on merit. Current fav in what has been a very fluid betting market, is Blazing Khal who - to be frank - isn't worthy of the position based on beating Meet And Greet over 2m5f LTO. That was his 1st race in 14mths, so he may come on for it, or he may "bounce". Marie's Rock is untried at 3-mile, and I feel she may go for the Mares' Hurdle instead for which she has a great chance of holding onto her crown having won that race last year. Teahopoo needs the mud; he may have it, but it's more likely that by Thursday and running on fresh ground that he won't. Home By The Lee was easily beaten in this race last year, and I don't think he's improved since but that he's been flattered by some indifferent performances by his rivals. I admit Flooring Porter looked a sad shadow of himself LTO, but he's won from the front twice before in this race, and I feel if he runs on the day then he will be capable of a good effort. Klassical Dream is another who has been beaten when meeting the very best at this trip, and he had nothing more to give when 5th last year. Paisley Park at 11yo is a spent force. When 3rd last year in the 2m5f Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle, Ashdale Bob ran the race of his life; he looks capable of a bold bid if the ground isn't too soft, as I think on better ground he may have btn Home By The Lee LTO at Leopardstown over 3-miles. After Gold Tweet winning here in January, you cannot ignore the French-trained Henri Le Farceur, but he will come into this race off a break of 103 days which is a negative. He may have chased home Gold Tweet LTO, but it will take a career-best from the horse at 10yo for Dashel Drasher to win. I'm leaning towards Flooring Porter as he's done it twice before and he looks the only one capable of a 160+ performance if he comes right on the day. IF push come to shove, right now I'd be on one of the youngest horses in the race, who we know has winning form at Cheltenham and stays the trip: Gold Tweet. If he was trained at Lambourn he'd be the 7/2 fav for this race, yet there is plenty of 12/1 available NRNB.

Advised wager: GOLD TWEET - £5 eachway @ 12/1 (generally available, NRNB)

The day ends with a couple of handicaps; the Kim Muir over 3m2f, and the "Plate" over 2m4f & 127 yds, which I will hold off reviewing for now as there are too many entries in both races to consider. The  Mares' Novices Hurdle is not the sort of race I want to get involved in.

I will be back tomorrow with another instalment. 

The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 3

The 5-days declarations for the opening day were posted at lunchtime today (Wed 08Mar) and there are a few non-runners in my antepost wagers. As expected, Mighty Potter is a NR for the Arkle as he's the fav for the "Turners" on Day-3; so that's £5 lost. Also in the Arkle, my eachway wagers on Boothill and Sir Gerhard are both NR's, but these wagers a NRNB so the stakes totalling £20 are refunded. The main wagers on Impaire Et Passe & Il Etait Temps (Supreme Hurdle), El Fabiolo (Arkle), and Mahler Mission & Churchstonewarrior (NH Chase) all all still "live".

Onto Day 2, and it starts with a couple of top novice races. Remember, this is a 4-day meeting with 28 races and you cannot possibly have an angle on every one.  Pick and choose your targets, and sometimes there isn't a wager worth having, like in the Champion Hurdle were unless you had a significant wager on Constitution Hill sometime last summer at odds of 2/1 then all you are looking for is finding the placed horses, and that can be tricky for very little reward.

Ballymore Hurdle over 2m5f

Possibly the most influential novice hurdle at the Festival, this still has an enormous number of entries and I'm not tempted to consider a wager until the weekend when we will know a) what is most likely to run, and b) the likely ground.  I'm not convinced that Hermes Allen (trained by Paul Nicholls) is good enough to win this, but Mullins has a hatful of horses to choose from - and he usually leaves it late to make his final choice for this race.

Old Brown Advisory Novices Chase (Broadway) over 3-miles & 80yds

I like this race, mainly as it takes some winning and the form is usually a good guide to finding the winner. This year we have a fav in Gerri Colombe who looks like he might not be outclassed were he in the Gold Cup on Friday.  He does have to test him stamina at this trip, but he looks more than capable. The 2nd fav, The Real Whacker, has won both his chase starts but the strength of the form in those races is debateable, and I think his odds could take a walk on the day. If you fancy his chances, then I would wait until the day of the race and leave your wager late.  Sir Gerhard holds an entry for this race, but I really can't see him running on what will be only his 2nd chase race, and the "Turners" (if he does run) is more suitable. As such, I think Thyme Hill could go off the 2nd-fav at around 7/2, and we know he stays the trip, jumps well, and handles the course - and readers are on him at an average of 15/2. Don't underestimate Stage Star (Nicholls) who should ensure a proper test of stamina , as will the consistent Thunder Rock. No further wagers in this race until the day.

Coral Cup (h'cap) Hurdle over 2m5f

At the time of writing there are still 87 entered, so expect a full compliment of starters in this race which has a maximum of 26 going to post.  I will hang on for a few days.

Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2-miles

This is being billed as another "match" as it was last year, only this time Energumene is meeting Edwardstone. Last year, readers of the blog were on Energumene at the extremely generous odds of 4/1 and scooped a massive win. This year the race does not offer the same value. To be honest, if Energumene runs his best form then there's not much between the leading pair. Their conqueror at Cheltenham in January was Editeur Du Gite, but will he be allowed to dominate the race again, I doubt it. One that could surprise them is Gentleman De Mee, but only if he improves another 7lb and I'm not sure he can. I can't see any value in this race, I think the betting has it just about right. 

Cross Country Chase over 3m6f

Another race that I don't think should be run at the Festival.

Grand Annual H'Cap Chase over 2-miles

This is a tricky race, and one which usually sparks a gamble or two in the market. I think the Mullins trained Saint Roi could be the gamble, as he's entered for the Arkle and was presumably aimed at the race, but isn't good enough - so he will end up in this race by default. Keep an eye on Riviere D'Etel trained by Gordon Elliott: he was well fancied for the Arkle last year, and has a touch of class about him, yet he's running off OR149.

Champion Bumper over 2-miles

Another race that I avoid.

The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 2

Cheltenham Festival Antepost Wagers: already advised

Arkle: SIR GERHARD - £5 ew NRNB @ 14/1 (Bet365 & PaddyPower)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)

These horses are combined in 4 x £5 win trebles: £20 staked

1) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

2) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Churchstonewarrior @ 6/1

3) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Gerri Colombe @ 9/4 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

4) Shishkin @ 11/10 plus Thyme Hill @ 5/1 plus Mahler Mission @ 8/1

Supreme Hurdle:  IL ETAIT TEMPS - £10 win @ 9/2 (NRNB)

Arkle: BOOTHILL - £5 eachway @ 40/1 (NRNB - Skybet & Paddy Power)

NH Chase: MAHLER MISSION - £10 win @ 9/1 (Corals)

Arkle: El Fabiolo @ 9/4 

and Turners: Mighty Potter @ 3/1 : £10 win double

Turners Nov Ch: MIGHTY POTTER - £10 win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

Cheltenham Gold Cup: PROTEKTORAT - £15 win @ 9/1 (paddy Power or Skybet)

Supreme Hurdle: Impaire Et Passe - £5 win @ 10/1 (Coral or Labrokes)

Ballymore Hurdle: Marine Nationale - £5 win @ 25/1 (Skybet or, Ladbrokes & Coral)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 8/1 (Bet365 or Skybet)

Broadway Chase: Thyme Hill - £5 win @ 7/1 (William Hill, NRNB)

Arkle: MIGHTY POTTER - £5 win @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Arkle: EL FABIOLO - £5 win @ 9/2 (William Hill, NRNB)

Total Staked to Date: £140

My proposed antepost portfolio is confirmed above, all these wagers have been written into the blog since 1st January. There's a couple that were speculative that are already losers: Mighty Potter in the Arkle (£5 @ 25/1), and probably Boothill also in the Arkle (£5 ew @ 40/1) but that stake is returned as it's NRNB.  I must admit that I'm feeling fairly confident about returning a profit from the antepost wagers.  I know it's exciting to place speculative doubles and trebles, but I've felt confident about the ability of Mighty Potter as a novice chaser since early December, and maybe if I'd lumped the lot on him at 7/2 for the "Turners" in early January that may have been the best policy.

The opening day continues with the Champion Hurdle over 2-miles & 87yds.

For the winner you cannot look anywhere else but Constitution Hill. He probably could have won this race last season as a novice hurdler (has any novice ever tried?), and he looks 10lb better than anything else in the race. There is no real point in considering stats for this race, as invariably the best horse wins the race: it is always a true test.

The Irish challenge is from State Man who won the County Hurdle last year looking every inch a potential Champion hurdle horse, but he just isn't in the same league as the fav. I'm surprised Vauban is entered as this 5yo is clearly behind his stablemate State Man, and I expect he is in the race for the experience. 

Nicky Henderson reckons the mare Epatante is better than ever, and if she is (she was 2^nd in this race last year) then she should finish in front of Vauban. However, do not ignore I Like To Move It; he’s improved rapidly since going hurdling, just failing to win the Betfair H’cap off OR138, then winning the Greatwood H’cap off OR142 in November, and LTO smashing the Grade 2 “Kingwell” at Wincanton last month. He looks as good as State Man based on that performance LTO, and the only downside I can see is that he flopped in the County Hurdle (won by State Man) last year.  On form, the ”value” is trying to find the 3^rd-placed horse on the day, and that looks between Epatante and I Like To Move It, and I prefer the latter given he’s a C&D winner and that he could be the 2^nd best horse in the race and is currently available at 16/1 with Paddy Power & William Hill could be extremely good value in a race which could have only 6 or 7 starters.

Advice: I LIKE TO MOVE IT - £5 ew @ 16/1 (NRNB) with Paddy Power & William Hill

Mares’ hurdle 2m4f

Not my favourite race as the winner usually only needs to have a rating better than OR150. Fair enough to give mares’ a chance with a 7lb allowance against the geldings, but a mares' only race isn’t a championship race in my opinion.  Honeysuckle is due to take part, and I think she’s vulnerable. Her form this season has been decent for a mare but is definitely below “Honeysuckle” peak. If Marie’s Rock runs in this – and not the Stayers’ Hurdle over 3-mile – I believe she will take all the beating; she’s running around 155-158 which is about 5lb better than Honeysuckle. Brandy Love does not look good enough, and I feel Echoes In Rain is both not good enough and this isn’t her trip. More interesting is Love Envoi who was a Festival winner in 2022, and I think she has improved since – but although she’s not as good as Marie’s Rock she can give Honeysuckle a race. Queens Brook has potential to be placed, but that depends on which mares run in the race. 

My idea of the 1, 2, 3 is 1^st Marie’s Rock, 2^nd Love Envoi, 3^rd Honeysuckle; but if Marie’s Rock goes for the Stayers’ Hurdle then Love Envoi at odds of 7/1 looks a value wager, but perhaps not the value of I Like To Move It in the Champion Hurdle.   

Juvenile Handicap Hurdle over 2-mile & 87yds

There is no way I'm going to spend time at this stage trying to find the winner of this race, as 6 of the last 10 winners have been sent off at odds of 25/1 or longer - Jeff Kidder won at 80/1 in 2021.

National Hunt Chase over 3m 6f

This can be one of the most informative races of the Festival having been won by Cause Of Causes, Minella Rocco, and Tiger Roll, and also  produced a couple of recent Gold Cup winner Native River (2nd in 2016). Of the last 16 winners, 14 had already won at 3-mile or further, and 10 of the last 13 winner had already run at Cheltenham. The top-3 on official ratings also have an excellent record in this race, and I have in the past just recommended having a wager on the horse with the highest official rating.  Not this year as, to be absolutely honest here: I can't see why Gaillard Du Mesnil is such a hot fav in this race. He will likely have the highest rating of OR155, but for me he lacks zip - just as Run Wild Fred rated OR156 did last year, and he ran 2nd  to Stattler rated OR153. Ramilies has not looked a convincing chaser, and he didn't look a convincing 3-miler hurdler either. Chemical Energy was the fav for this race until recently, but he ran a stinker on 29Jan and it's difficult to erase that run from the mind.  I have already advise antepost wagers on the pair Churchstonewarrior and Mahler Mission who fought out the finish of a 3-mile Grade 2 Chase on 12Feb, and that form looks rock solid, and this pair look to be still improving. I don't think City Chief (in the same ownership of Ramilies and Gaillard Du Mesnil) rated OR142 is good enough, and the same applies to his stable companion Mister Coffey rated OR145.  When you look at the entries, this race lacks depth which probably explains the betting. I would expect a fair amount of movement in the betting on the day, and while I expect Gaillard Du Mesnil to go off the fav, I don't expect him to win this race.

So then, just the one addition to the antepost portfolio: I LIKE TO MOVE IT in the Champion Hurdle.

The final countdown to the Cheltenham Festival - part 1

We are down to the final week before the Cheltenham Festival, and over the next few days I'm going to be having a look at the races, noting trends, positives, negatives and hopefully a few winners along the way. I've been writing this blog since 2010, and I've followed horseracing since the late 1960's, and while this years' Festival has some intrigue in the championship races, overall this jumps season has been lacking in excitement. There now seems to be a distinct "gap" between Britain and Ireland in the quality and depth of the best horses.  It's not the ability of the trainers, as there are some talented young trainers out there who are doing an incredible job with what they have: but they are not going to get near winning one of the Grade 1 Championship races without having the owners putting serious investment in.  Horseracing, like just about everything in the UK, is lacking investment - and where it goes from here I've no idea.  

Onto the Cheltenham Festival, and on the opening day (Tuesday) we get straight into the thick of the action from the opening race. Remember, the two most important stats, doesn't matter which race, 1) An average of 55% of all Cheltenham Festival winners are LTO winners; 2) An average of 95% of all Cheltenham Festival winners ran their previous race no more than 84 days before - which is usually 25th December. 

Supreme Novices' Hurdle Grade 1 over 2-mile & 87yds

This race is usually won by a LTO winner, and a horse no older than 6yo; also, 7 of the last 9 winners started the race with a rating of OR150+. 

There is a major question-mark over the fav Facile Vega after the abysmal performance LTO. Trainer Willie Mullins laid the blame on the jockey (Paul Townend), and he will be trying to make amends. However, to do so I expect we will not see Facile Vega making the pace, but just being ridden prominently - will that suit, or won't it?  The 2nd fav is Marine Nationale, but he's not races since 04Dec and that - to be fair - isn't a good sign. Take in that he only just won that day, and the horse he beat (Irish Point) is rated OR142 - so, Marine Nationale has to find 15lb of improvement on that performance. Willie Mullins dominates this race: along with Facile Vega, he has Il Etait Temps, Gaelic Warrior, and Impaire Et Passe plus others (a total of 8 entries), and you cannot really ignore any. Personally, I think Impaire Et Passe will go for the Ballymore over 2m5f; his hurdle debut was over 2m3f, and I think his run on 15Jan over 2-mile was just to keep him ticking-over. Gaelic Warrior is interesting as his win LTO is one of the best formlines in this race, but it was in a handicap, and LTO handicap winners have an awful record trying to win graded races at the Festival.  I did think he was going for the County (h'cap) Hurdle, but he looks destined for this race. Readers of the blog have already been recommended to wager on Il Etait Temps, and this gelding has improved with every run - there's every possibility that he will improve again, and I note he holds a County Hurdle entry with a mark of OR148 and he's clearly better than that!  You can never ignore Henderson's entries in this race, and the mare Luccia is interesting but you will be placing your faith in potential, not form.  The form of "Tolworth" winner Tahmuras has been boosted by the placed horses, and he's better than his OR138 rating. The Frankel gelding Diverge (Mullins) could be anything. I can't imagine any other entry coming to the fore in this race, and at this stage I would advise hanging-on to the declaration stage before having a wager. That Mullins has so many entered, the cynic in me would not be surprised if Facile Vega doesn't run, in which case I'd expect Paul Townend to ride Gaelic Warrior and that one to start the fav at about 2/1.  

Arkle Novices' Chase Grade 1 over 2-miles

Last year, I made the expensive error of overlooking the obvious ability of eventual winner Edwardstone by focussing on his age. The top-rated on official ratings has won 9 of the last 13; and 21 of the last 25 winners won their previous race.  I have tried to not do the same this year by prioritising ability; and in this respect the two market leaders in El Fabiolo and Jonbon look much better than the remainder. As is the trend in recent years, I expect there to be fewer than 10 runners on the day, probably only 7 or 8. With Appreciate It and Banbridge almost certain to go for the "Turners" over 2m4f instead, and Saint Roi looking more of a handicap horse, it's possible that the final field will be El Fabiolo / Jonbon / Dysart Dynamo / Sir Gerhard / Boothill and maybe a couple of others. Dysart Dynamo is going to be some horse when he learns to settle-down, but he's only won 3 of his 6 races over obstacles at odds of 8/13, 4/9 and 2/5 and by 28-lengths, 19-lengths (twice); but when in Grade-1 races he flops. I think if he wins the Arkle, it will even Mullins by surprise! Sir Gerhard, who won the Ballymore last year, is much more interesting and is the type who could find a lot of improvement on his chase debut. It might be worth taking the 14/1 (NRNB) offered by Bet365 and Paddy Power.

Ultima Handicap Chase over 3-mile & 1-furlong

One of the most competitive chase handicaps of the season, and for a full review of the form I will wait until the declarations are out next weekend. A few interesting stats: 13 of the last 15 winners had won over 3-mile or more; and 10 of the last 13 winners had previously run at Cheltenham.  Another interesting factor is headgear: 8 of the last 10 winners wore some sort of headgear - that's an odd one, and it may pay to note any 1st-time applications.  Starting from the top-weight, who isn't going to run and how much are the weights going to go up? I don't think the top-4 in the weights will run, and the eventual top-weight will be Stolen Silver. Why does this matter? The top-weight will carry 11st 12lb, which means (as Stolen Silver is allocated 11st 9lb) the weights will go up 3lb.  In the past 10 years, 75% of the finishers in the 1st-4 places carried 11st or more. That means the top-rated 26 (Karl Philippe and above) will likely carry 11st or more.  All the market leaders fall into this category, and there are a couple that look interesting: Happygolucky who was 2nd in this race in 2021 off OR147, and Tea Clipper who was 4th in this race last year. It is Tea Clipper that interests me most, as when he was 4th last year that was only his 4th chase race. He came back off a long break to run a cracker at Chepstow in October, and followed that up with an excellent effort at Ascot, proving he stays 3-miles. The negative is that Tea Clipper hasn't won a race beyond 2m4f. I'm not that bothered that he hasn't run since November as his trainer a) planned to miss the heavy winter ground, b) this race has been his target for 12 months, and c) he goes well fresh. Odds of 16/1 NRNB are available generally, and that looks value to me.

Advised wagers:

Arkle: SIR GERHARD - £5 ew NRNB @ 14/1 (Bet365 & PaddyPower)

Ultima: TEA CLIPPER - £5 ew NRNB @ 16/1 (available generally, 5-places 5th odds)