Cheltenham Festival 2024 update - 9th March

This is it, as of Saturday 9th March we have all the confirmed entries for the meeting, all we are missing is the final declarations; and for Tuesday that will come midday Sunday. We have few significant unanswered questions, such as which Mullins horse will Paul Townend ride in the Arkle? Now that Ballyburn is confirmed for the "Gallagher", just how many rivals will he face in that race and, of those that don't take up the challenge which race will they end-up in? Let's look at the entries for Gold Cup day.

Friday opens with the Triumph Hurdle for 4yo's; this can be a tricky race but the market usually gets this right. By Friday, we should know just how well the Henderson stable is firing, and that will determine what odds Sir Gino goes off at. He will start the fav, and if I can get 7/4 or longer then I'll be on him. Mullins currently has 7 still in the race, and I expect Townend to ride Majborough and this horse could be anything. A "dark horse" worth an ew wager is Nurburgring: he hasn't run since Boxing Day but that run was as good as anything else we've seen this season as although he didn't win he was conceding weight to smart horses. This isn't a race I tend to wager on until the day.

The 3-mile "Albert Bartlett" novice hurdle is another grade 1 race that I tend not to wager on until the day. Trainer, de Bromhead only has 33/1 chance Chigorin entered; Elliott has 5 entries, butt he shortest in the betting is My Trump Card at 20/1; Mullins on the other hand has 7 entries including the 3 heading the betting: Readin Tommy Wrong, Dancing City and High Class Hero. Right now, the Harry Fry trained Gidleigh Park ticks a lot of boxes, and is almost certain to run; for me, he's the most interesting. 

The final Grade 1 race of the Festival is the Gold Cup, run over 3m 2f & 70yds.

It's very difficult to look past last years winner Galopin Des Champs, who has showed with his last couple of races that he's as good, if not better, than last season. Personally, I'm amazed that odds of 5/4 are available, as he looks an odds-on chance to me. So I will be looking at using him as a "banker" in doubles and trebles. Martin Brassil seriously rates the chance of Fastorslow, and he does look better at the fences than GDC, but the champion has the edge on speed and stamina. In my eyes, Shishkin demonstrated at Newbury last month that had he not made the error 2-out in the King George at Kempton, he'd have won and probably won with something in hand. In 2nd, would have been Bravemansgame, as he lost at least 3-lengths (plus momentum) at the 2nd-last through no fault of his own, then stayed on strong. Without that interference, he would not have been caught and passed by Hewick, but I doubt he'd have beaten Shishkin. 

My 1-2-3 is Galopin Des Champs; with Shishkin 2nd, and Bravemansgame 3rd. 

There's not much between Bravemansgame and Fastorslow; but BMG has more 160+ performances and we know after running 2nd in the Gold Cup last season, that he handles the track & trip well. I don't think Gerri Colombe or Hewick will figure in the race - unless we have some fallers - and I can see why some are considering Grand National winner Corach Rambler as having an ew chance (Grand National winners tend to do well in the Gold Cup) but this year the Gold Cup looks more competitive than most years.  If there is a dark horse in the race, it's L'Homme Presse.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 update - 8th March

We've not long to go now, and big news is coming thick and fast.

Ballyburn now has the confirmed race target of the "Gallagher" hurdle on Wednesday over 2m5f (and NOT the Supreme Hurdle). I've thought this would be the case for some weeks, and posted this on my blog on 12th February with a recommendation to take the odds of 2/1 NRNB that were on offer at the time. Ballyburn looks virtually 'bombproof' for the "Gallagher", and that's reflected in the current betting.

It is also certain that Gaelic Warrior is running in the "Arkle" and not the "Turners" on Day-3 of the Festival which, to be honest, I kind of expected as I think Gaelic Warrior has the potential to being the best 2-mile chaser that Mullins has trained - but he's to prove he can win going left-handed first.

I'm not getting too many readers of the blog - just 48 for yesterdays blog - but I'm not necessarily looking for readers; I'm doing this for myself. But if you do enjoy it, make it known on "X" (ex-twitter).

Wednesday at the Festival opens with the Turners Novices' Chase over 2m4f; and this year's race does not look like being as competitive as last year. This is one of the few Grade 1 "championship" races that I've not had a wager in yet. The current fav is Ginny's Destiny who is trained by Paul Nicholls who sent Stage Star to win this last year. This horse certainly looks the part on form, and deserves to head the market. But I like Grey Dawning a little more, and so does the official handicapper who has him 6lb higher on OR153.  The well respected Facile Vega would definitely win this were it a hurdle race, but his jumping lets him down, and I don't think he will stay this trip well enough to figure at the finish. If Iroko runs, then he has to be respected, but I'm not sure that's going to happen; and there's not many horses that can win a Grade 1 at the Festival having not run this side of Christmas. The rest of the entries look decidedly outclassed, apart from Giovinco who I think is well-handicapped on OR146 so if he skips this for a handicap I will be well pleased; and the 9yo Letsbeclearaboutit who has been in some decent races in Ireland. Trainer Gavin Cromwell is no mug and this horse has the pace and stamina to stay involved to the finish. I think I will wait until the day as I should be able to better the current 7/2 on Grey Dawning; but I'm taking the NRNB available on the latter couple mentioned: Giovinco at 25/1 and Letsbeclearaboutit at 40/1 (Paddy Power) - both ew. Unfortunately the 40/1 has gone, best now is 33/1 NRNB with Paddy Power.

The Ryanair Chase is a race that for some reason I always seem to read wrong - I think the only time I've been on the winner is when Cue Card romped home back in 2013. I've already taken 6/1 about Stage Star following his win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November. I also took the odds of 10/1 that were available last April after Envoi Allen won this race at the last Festival - yes, 10/1. He's been given a very light season by his trainer, de Bromhead; and as he won this race last season - beating Shishkin, no less - after being beaten out of sight in the "King George" at Kempton, that he's not run since just failing to win the Grade 1 Drinmore over 3-miles in November is no worry to me. The form of Banbridge is also strong, and you cannot fault his last 3 runs; he could be the best of these but, given how close they are matched, his current odds of 3/1 offer (to me) no value. The only other horse capable of mixing-it in this race is Protektorat: he's not won a race since being gifted the Betfair Chase in Nov22 (18 months ago), but his form this season has been his best ever and he's consistent. He was available at over 20/1 a few weeks ago, and I wish I'd availed myself of some, but 12/1 is available with Bet365 (he's 10's everywhere else).  I'm expecting Stage Star to win this race. Bit of late news that Ga Law has been supplemented, but he needs to find about 7lb on his recent win at Cheltenham in January to win this, and possibly a tad more. Had he run to form last season (when 5th in this race) he would probably have come 4th - but that's still 5 or 6 lengths off last years winner. 

One of my favourite races of the Festival is the Stayer's Hurdle over 3-mile, as I've found the winner a number of times in recent years. Last year was a complete blow-out, but then the form of this division had been erratic all season - which culminated in the 11yo Sire Du Berlais winning at 33/1 with the 10yo Dashel Drasher in 2nd at 40/1. That leads me to dismiss Teahupoo who, if he couldn't win last year with the ground in his favour (the softer the better for him) he's unlikely to win this year. The rumour is Irish Point will run in the Champion Hurdle (2nd pays £95k) and as he's not guaranteed to stay 3-mile at this level, I think he will run on Tuesday. Crambo just isn't good enough by a long way, remember he was 3rd in a handicap hurdle over 3-mile on 25Nov off OR139 - he should have won that by 15-lengths is he really is capable of winning this race on Thursday.  Horses don't find 15lb of improvement overnight as a 7yo. I can see why some think the answer is Noble Yeats, who has abundant stamina, but he merely ran to his rating of OR152 in the Cleeve Hurdle, but what he does have tho' is a turn-of-foot which can win a muddling race. If I thought Sir Gerhard would stay 3-mile he would be my choice, but that's a questionmark, although he will enjoy soft ground. If you are considering Monkfish after pretty much 3 years on the sick list, then you are dreaming. The more you look at this race, the more you see how weak it is and lacking depth - yet there's a proven horse at the trip and on the course: Flooring Porter. He had a lot of problems last season, and still ran 4th in this race last season beaten just over 3 lengths. He's looked very fit and well this season: he just isn't as good at jumping fences as hurdles. Gavin Cromwell has brought this horse along very quietly, and he could be in-line for  massive gamble on the Thursday. For me, it's Flooring Porter all the way; he's 12/1 NRNB.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Update 7th March

An interesting development today, as a horse I have on my radar for the Ultima Handicap on Tuesday was expected to run in the Cross Country Chase on Wed, but is now not a confirmed entry for that race - Annual Invictus: last seen winning the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster on 27th Jan, and did so by leading from the 2nd fence to the line. The form of that race is top notch, as Forward Plan went on to win the (Class 1) Coral Trophy at Kempton. I've taken 25/1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap. 

The opening race of the 2nd day of the Festival is the "Gallagher" Novices Hurdle over 2m5f. The odds-on antepost fav for this race is Ballyburn, who is also the fav for the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Day-1. He can't run in both, so which is he likely to run in? Yesterday, I reasoned that Mullins is most likely to run Ballyburn in this race and I've not changed my mind overnight. I can see Mullins having a few in this race, as I'm expecting both Ile Atlantique and Mystical Power to run, and probably Readin Tommy Wrong too. What will be his 1st-string? That will be the one ridden by Paul Townend. The only other possible Mullins horse that could run is Predators Gold, but I'm expecting that one to run in the Albert Bartlett over 3-miles.

It is difficult to consider anything else other than Ballyburn for this race, but if he does run in the "Supreme" instead, then I will be looking at Ile Atlantique who is possibly a better horse than the one we saw beaten a neck LTO by Readin Tommy Wrong. Of the others, only Captain Teague looks capable of being involved at the finish, as his 3rd last year in the Champion Bumper shows he's a touch of class about him.  

The "Brown Advisory" Novice Chase over an extended 3-miles has developed into a proper race recently, after a period in the doldrums. Unfortunately, there are only 11 in the confirmed entries, and I doubt all will go to post. Embassy Gardens is almost certain to go for the NH Chase on the opening day, and I very much doubt Gaelic Warrior will run in this race over the "Turners" on Day-3.

The odds-on fav is yet another Mullins-trained horse, Fact To File; and he's interesting as he hasn't had a season hurdling. Is he an odds-on chance? Personally, I don't think he is, although he is a worthy fav. I think Stay Away Fay has even stronger form going into this race, and it's particularly pleasing that trainer Paul Nicholls has not entered the horse in any other race. The Skelton-trained Grey Dawning is another horse with strong formlines, and it would not surprise me to see this one leading at the final fence. Gordon Elliott has American Mike, but he doesn't look good enough and the horse he beat LTO (Nick Rockett) doesn't have a Festival entry. When you look at the race won by Broadway Boy at Cheltenham in December, beating Threeunderthrufive and Protektorat (it was a handicap), you have to wonder why he's not heading the betting. However, he doesn't like like being challenged for the lead like he was LTO by Grey Dawning, and there will be plenty of pace on in this race. If there is a horse that is under-estimated it's Giovinco: he's absolutely bred to win a Gold Cup (dam a half-sister to Rocky Creek who was rated OR163 at best), and he could be one to sneak 3rd or better and is available at 33/1 (Paddy Power and Skybet), and there may only be 7 or 8 starters come Wednesday! David Pipe has a complete unknown dark-horse in Jamaico who is yet to run in the UK or Ireland and is entered for just about everything with a fence to jump. This looks a race to watch and not wager, as there's no value in the fav, and there's no value in those likely to fill the places if the fav does win. If push comes to shove, to have an interest in the race, I'd have a small ew wager on Giovinco at 33/1. 

The Queen Mother Champion Chase (when are they going to rename this race, I wonder?) will almost certainly go to El Fabiolo barring a mishap. And to think there was a lot of doubt over this horse when novice chasing prior to winning the Irish Arkle! There's no doubt that Jonbon is the 2nd-best 2-miler in the field, and he won't make the mistake that he did LTO.

A few notes on the Grand Annual handicap Chase: this time last year I wanted Saint Roi to run in this rather than the Arkle, and he was handicapped OR153 then. Now he's on OR150 and his ability hasn't dimmed - this horse has won the County Hurdle (2021), come 3rd in the Champion hurdle (2022), and come 3rd in the Arkle (2023); he looks the perfect candidate for this race. However, if Found A Fifty wins the Arkle on Tuesday, expect the gamble of the Festival on My Mate Mozzie - he could go off at odds under 3/1.

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - update 6th March

An interesting day today (no, not the Budget) as the confirmed runners were named for the opening day of the Festival.  For me, the biggest disappointment was the continued demise of the NH Chase, which is the race with the longest history at the Cheltenham Festival. Was it the reduction of the trip for this race to 3m6f that was the nail in the coffin? I don't know, but what I do know is that there are only 10 potential runners in the race as of today; and I would not be surprised if only 7 or 8 go to post.

That's the same for the opening race of the Festival: the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Currently there are a potential 15 runners in the race; but I doubt Mullins will send 100/1 chances Gold Dancer and Supersundae to take part; and Kings Hill and Favour And Fortune are also outclassed and unlikely runners. Mullins is responsible for 7 of the remaining 11 potential runners, so let's look at the "non-Mullins" horses. My favourite is Firefox trained by Gordon Elliott: it looked like he didn't stay 2m4f LTO when fading after the final flight, but his run before that when he beat the current fav Ballyburn looked top class. It's probable that Ballyburn has improved since then, but then it's likely Firefox has too. Nicky Henderson has the 5yo Jeriko Du Reponet (owned by JP McManus), but I'm not sure that he's good enough, although you can never underestimate a Henderson entry. Henry de Bromhead has Slade Steel, who was comprehensively beaten by Ballyburn LTO. Ben Pauling sends the 5yo Tellherthename and he thinks a lot of this one who cost £200k; unfortunately the form is difficult to assess. 

Of the Mullins entries, it all hangs on Ballyburn: clearly a class horse, personally I think 2m4f is the way to go and that Mullins hasn't shown his hand yet suggests if he thinks he can win the Supreme with another horse he will. The JP McManus owned Mystical Power is also entered in the Baring Bingham over 2m5f on Wed, and as his dam Annie Power stayed 3-mile (as well as being good enough to win the Champion Hurdle) it would not surprise me if he went for that race instead (leaving McManus to have Jeriko Du Reponet representing him). So, that would leave Tullyhill who looked to have exceptional potential when winning LTO to be the main Mullins representative. Mullins does have a strong hand for the Baring Bingham as he also has Ile Atlantique who looks like he needs 2m5f. The Festival could have come a bit too soon for the 5yo's Mistergif and Anotherway; and Asian Master just isn't good enough (but could be used as a pace-maker). 

I think we will see Firefox / Jeriko Du Reponet / Slade Steel / Tellherthename / Ballyburn / Tullyhill and Asian Master line-up (7 runners) - and I'm on Firefox already at 10/1 and I'm also interested in taking the current odds of 4/1 on Tullyhill just-in-case Mullins sends Ballyburn for the Baring Bingham on Wednesday.

The Arkle Novices Chase over 2-mile is yet another race which could have under 10 going to post. Mullins holds 5 of the 15 entries confirmed today, and it's very likely that he will have the fav in Il Etait Temps who was last seen staying-on strong to win the Irish Arkle. Now, I like this horse but my worry is that he didn't repeat the level of form he showed last year at the Dublin Festival and either Cheltenham or Punchestown - but he should run a solid race. Will he, or won't he run Gaelic Warrior? Even if he does run him, after his display LTO when he appeared to hate running left-handed, I can't have him. If Townend doesn't ride him I won't have a penny on. The well-bred Facile Vega looks desperately wanting 2m4f and I expect to see that one run in the "Turners" on Thursday. There are a lot of good judges putting-up Hunters Yarn, and he clearly has an engine, but he's made significant errors in both his races and I don't think he's a 5/1 chance.  And I really cannot see him running Sharjah in this race at 11yo - he's been a good servant, time to put him out to grass. Of the others; my particular fav is Found A Fifty: he's done nothing wrong in his 4 chase races this season, and the form bares-up to inspection; not only that he has the stamina for 2m4f and he likes to lead. Some many ticks in the boxes. The 2021 Triumph Hurdle winner Quilixios has recovered his form after 2 years on the side-lines. He beat Sa Fureur LTO (that one holds a couple of handicap entries) over 2-miles but I think he could be better over 2m4f,and he doesn't look value to me at 6/1. Personally, I don't think any of the other entries are good enough to win an Arkle, but I do think My Mate Mozzie is one of the best handicapped novice chasers around going into the Festival - he's going to take a some to be beaten in the Grand Annual on Wednesday.

After the Irish Arkle, I took 6/1 about both Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty, and I'm going to increase my stake on Found A Fifty as I think he's bullet-proof.  

The withdrawal of Constitution Hill has thrown the Champion Hurdle into a quandary -how to make this a meaningful race? In some respects, I'm laughing - Nicky Henderson (in my opinion) has egg all over his face as, by his own insecurity, he's wasted this season. The defection also clearly demonstrates the lack of depth in the hurdling division - something I've been remarking on for years as Faugheen in 2015 was the last "proper" Champion Hurdler and had he not been injured he'd have surely followed-up in 2016 and 2017. This will be a virtual walkover for State Man.  I very much doubt the mare Lossiemouth will run being just a 5yo, and the same goes for Zarak The Brave. Gordon Elliott will probably provide the runner-up, being either Irish Point or Pied Piper. Personally, I think Pied Piper is nailed on for 2nd as that's the position he filled in the County Hurdle last season when just failing to win. However, he's apparently going for the County again (which is gutting for me as I have a 40/1 ew wager on him for the Champion Hurdle, plus a double with Firefox in the Supreme). As such, if none of those 3 run, then the most logical selection for 2nd is Irish Point, but he wasn't exactly quick as a novice hurdler, and he looks more comfortable over 2m4f.  Therefore, it's no surprise that Henderson and JP McManus have entered the Betfair Handicap Hurdle winner Iberico Lord; odds of 16/1 are available and that's fair. Note: £10 on State Man at 2/5 returns £14; whereas £5 eachway at 16/1 on Iberico Lord returns £21 for 2nd or 3rd place.

The Mares Hurdle over 2m4f is yet another race dominated by a Willie Mullins trained odds-on fav in Lossiemouth. The only chink in her formbook is that she's not won beyond 2m1f; and I expect that's why Mullins has also entered Ashroe Diamond who is guaranteed to stay.  However, I think Love Envoi could have something to say in this race, having chased home Honeysuckle last year; she's the one I think that looks the value at 10/1. Although Marie's Rock is a better mare now than she was when she won this race in 2022, she's not at the level she needs to be to win. The Mullins-trained Echoes In Rain and Gala Marceau are just not good enough on known form. It may be worth having a small ew wager on You Wear It Well who won the Mares Novice Hurdle last year and perhaps didn't stay 3-mile when going close at Doncaster. She flopped LTO so if there's a doubt about her being in top form she may not run; but she could sneak 3rd place at 50/1.

Now, the NH Chase over 3m6f. The current fav is Corbetts Cross, and yes, he's a horse of potential - that's why he started the "Albert Bartlett" Novice Hurdle over 3-miles at last years' Festival the 9/4 fav - he's failed to show that promise yet, but he has hinted at it. That he was easily beaten over 3-mile at Leopardstown on 29-Dec suggests he's not the strongest. The 2nd fav Embassy Gardens has a stronger profile having won both his chase starts with ease; he just may lack a bit of pace. The Gordon Elliott trained Salvatore Ziggy is interesting: he stays 3-mile as a hurdler and a chaser, and goes well off a long break - he easily has the strongest form. Nothing else in the race comes within 10lb of those 3, and this is a race which is invariably won by the highest rated runner (yes, it's seems obvious, but "dark horses" with only 1 or 2 races showing indeterminate ability, don't win the NH Chase). Odds of 9/2 are available on Salvatore Ziggy from Coral and Ladbrokes, and that may seem very generous come Tuesday afternoon, 

I will be having a long look at the Ultima Handicap Chase later in the week.