Welcome to the World of Horseracing

Record of the blog selections

Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


There are NO affiliate links on this site to bookies from whom the author receives over 30% of the stakes from your lost wagers.ising selections on which to wager, since March 2010.

Thursday 7 March 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Update 7th March

An interesting development today, as a horse I have on my radar for the Ultima Handicap on Tuesday was expected to run in the Cross Country Chase on Wed, but is now not a confirmed entry for that race - Annual Invictus: last seen winning the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase at Doncaster on 27th Jan, and did so by leading from the 2nd fence to the line. The form of that race is top notch, as Forward Plan went on to win the (Class 1) Coral Trophy at Kempton. I've taken 25/1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap

The opening race of the 2nd day of the Festival is the "Gallagher" Novices Hurdle over 2m5f. The odds-on antepost fav for this race is Ballyburn, who is also the fav for the Supreme Novices Hurdle on Day-1. He can't run in both, so which is he likely to run in? Yesterday, I reasoned that Mullins is most likely to run Ballyburn in this race and I've not changed my mind overnight. I can see Mullins having a few in this race, as I'm expecting both Ile Atlantique and Mystical Power to run, and probably Readin Tommy Wrong too. What will be his 1st-string? That will be the one ridden by Paul Townend. The only other possible Mullins horse that could run is Predators Gold, but I'm expecting that one to run in the Albert Bartlett over 3-miles.
It is difficult to consider anything else other than Ballyburn for this race, but if he does run in the "Supreme" instead, then I will be looking at Ile Atlantique who is possibly a better horse than the one we saw beaten a neck LTO by Readin Tommy Wrong. Of the others, only Captain Teague looks capable of being involved at the finish, as his 3rd last year in the Champion Bumper shows he's a touch of class about him.  

The "Brown Advisory" Novice Chase over an extended 3-miles has developed into a proper race recently, after a period in the doldrums. Unfortunately, there are only 11 in the confirmed entries, and I doubt all will go to post. Embassy Gardens is almost certain to go for the NH Chase on the opening day, and I very much doubt Gaelic Warrior will run in this race over the "Turners" on Day-3.
The odds-on fav is yet another Mullins-trained horse, Fact To File; and he's interesting as he hasn't had a season hurdling. Is he an odds-on chance? Personally, I don't think he is, although he is a worthy fav. I think Stay Away Fay has even stronger form going into this race, and it's particularly pleasing that trainer Paul Nicholls has not entered the horse in any other race. The Skelton-trained Grey Dawning is another horse with strong formlines, and it would not surprise me to see this one leading at the final fence. Gordon Elliott has American Mike, but he doesn't look good enough and the horse he beat LTO (Nick Rockett) doesn't have a Festival entry. When you look at the race won by Broadway Boy at Cheltenham in December, beating Threeunderthrufive and Protektorat (it was a handicap), you have to wonder why he's not heading the betting. However, he doesn't like like being challenged for the lead like he was LTO by Grey Dawning, and there will be plenty of pace on in this race. If there is a horse that is under-estimated it's Giovinco: he's absolutely bred to win a Gold Cup (dam a half-sister to Rocky Creek who was rated OR163 at best), and he could be one to sneak 3rd or better and is available at 33/1 (Paddy Power and Skybet), and there may only be 7 or 8 starters come Wednesday! David Pipe has a complete unknown dark-horse in Jamaico who is yet to run in the UK or Ireland and is entered for just about everything with a fence to jump. This looks a race to watch and not wager, as there's no value in the fav, and there's no value in those likely to fill the places if the fav does win. If push comes to shove, to have an interest in the race, I'd have a small ew wager on Giovinco at 33/1

The Queen Mother Champion Chase (when are they going to rename this race, I wonder?) will almost certainly go to El Fabiolo barring a mishap. And to think there was a lot of doubt over this horse when novice chasing prior to winning the Irish Arkle! There's no doubt that Jonbon is the 2nd-best 2-miler in the field, and he won't make the mistake that he did LTO.

A few notes on the Grand Annual handicap Chase: this time last year I wanted Saint Roi to run in this rather than the Arkle, and he was handicapped OR153 then. Now he's on OR150 and his ability hasn't dimmed - this horse has won the County Hurdle (2021), come 3rd in the Champion hurdle (2022), and come 3rd in the Arkle (2023); he looks the perfect candidate for this race. However, if Found A Fifty wins the Arkle on Tuesday, expect the gamble of the Festival on My Mate Mozzie - he could go off at odds under 3/1.

No comments:

Post a Comment