In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Nothing much to write about on Tuesday’s racing.
I posted the following comment on another blog (http://www.narrowing-the-field.com) and will share the advice here. After a break of 314 days, on 23-Feb, Emma Lavelle brought OUZBECK (rated OR153 as a novice chaser) out for a hurdle at Southwell. The horse ran well enough before lack of race fitness told. I noted at the time that the horse held an entry for the William Hill Trophy at the Festival, but the horse needed another hurdle run before returning to chasing. This he did at Cheltenham on 14-April when winning a class 2 h'cap off OR134. Remember, this horse was in 4th before falling at the final fence in the Paddy Power won by Imperial Commander off OR153. Another hurdle to keep his fitness up followed before, on Sunday, he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter off OR142. This 28f trip stretched his stamina to the limit, but I reckon he can make a bold bid for the Grand National next March. He's unlikely to be raised much for this win and, based on his novice chase form, he could be a OR155+ chaser at his peak. He hates soft going, so only consider him on good or good-to-firm. He looks ripe to capture another major autumn handicap chase.
Today’s Racing Selections
The week of ordinary racing continues with just a meeting at Catterick this afternoon on the flat and another on the flat this evening at Chepstow; and meetings over the jumps at Perth and Worcester, both this afternoon.
At Catterick, the 4:30 7f handicap looks wide-open, but Catterick’s 7f trip is one where I like to have a front-runner and the RP “fav” GLENRIDDING fits the bill. He’s out of stall 7 of 8 which is not the best but he does like to go from the front. He went off far too fast at Chester LTO, and before that was 4/1 fav at Thirsk but couldn’t get in front from a wide draw. What drew my attention was his run at Catterick over todays trip on 29th May when drawn 9 of 9 he led till headed on the line. The winner that day (Imperial Djay) is now rated 13lb higher having run 3 good races since. The horse in 3rd (Smalljohn) has won since and is now rated 3lb higher. The rest (including todays rivals Nufoudh and Rio Cobolo) were over 5-lengths behind. The downsides are that trainer James Given has not had a winner since Dandino at Royal Ascot (had 15 runners since then), nor has he a good strike-rate at Catterick (just 2 wins from 45 runners) but this is his only runner today. Current odds of 5/1 look very generous.
Selection: Catterick 4:30 GLENRIDDING, 1pt ew @ 5/1 (I'd have 2pts win, but trainer James Given's track record here is so poor there must be a reason why)
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Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Wednesday, 30 June 2010
Tuesday, 29 June 2010
Awful Tuesday
In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Nothing much to write about on Monday’s racing.
Today’s Racing Selections
I cannot get excited about the meeting at Brighton this afternoon. I don’t like Brighton – despite it being the closest “flat” track to my home. I’ve seen too many horses becoming unbalanced on the home stretch and not being able to run-on. The meeting at Hamilton this afternoon also looks dire. There are 4 x class 5 races and 3 x class 6 – awful. There is not much at either of the evening meetings at first glance, though if I come across anything later on I will post it up.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Nothing much to write about on Monday’s racing.
Today’s Racing Selections
I cannot get excited about the meeting at Brighton this afternoon. I don’t like Brighton – despite it being the closest “flat” track to my home. I’ve seen too many horses becoming unbalanced on the home stretch and not being able to run-on. The meeting at Hamilton this afternoon also looks dire. There are 4 x class 5 races and 3 x class 6 – awful. There is not much at either of the evening meetings at first glance, though if I come across anything later on I will post it up.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Monday, 28 June 2010
They think it's all over - it is now!
In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s game, England v Germany
Review of Saturday’s racing selection and weekend racing
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s game, England v Germany
The knee-jerk reaction to England’s 4:1 defeat by Germany is to sack Fabio Capello as manager and blame the referee for not allowing Lampard’s goal. However, England’s problems run deep and were there for all to see in the abysmal performances in the 3 group games and, let’s be honest, it was a very weak group. At least we can lay claim to have been beaten by Germany! What would the headlines be now if it had been a 4:1 (or more) defeat by Ghana? My look on the situation is that the Premier League (sold to the public as a springboard for success on the international stage) has failed. If a player earning £140,000 a week (John Terry) cannot find the motivation to play in position for his country then what can? £200,000 a week, how about £300,000? The Premier League has failed the England team as there is no strength in depth in the England squad. Champions Chelsea supplied only 4 players; Ashley Cole, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Joe Cole. Premiership runners-up Man Utd supplied just 3 players Rooney, Ferdinand (injured, never played) and Carrick (never played). Third in the Premiership, Arsenal, supplied none. Just 7 of the 23-man squad from the top-3 clubs in the country – say’s it all really.
I’m sure some “spin” will be put on the result to suggest it’s the fault of someone else (and remember, this is essentially the same squad that failed under Steve McClaren), but it is the fault of the system and the players.
It is not worth progressing with players now aged 28-years and older. They have shown themselves to be not good enough and they are not going to get any better; so ditch them and bring in some young blood – from the Championship teams if necessary. We need players hungry for success, not fat having gorged themselves on £6 million a year salaries.
And the structure of the Premiership needs to change with less reliability on foreign players. The starting line-up of every Premiership game should include at least 3 English players (my god, 20 years ago we only allowed 3 foreign players in a team!). That should increase to 4 players for the 2011-12 season, and 5 players for 2012-13.
What about a return of the England ‘B’ team, and matches between England ‘A’ and England ‘B’? I’m sure a 23-man squad drawn from the Championship would have fared better than the current squad of Premiership prima-donna’s.
Finally, let’s stop thinking we are the best at football as we invented the game. We are not.
Review of Saturday’s racing selection and weekend racing
I was a bit disappointed with RED JAZZ as he did everything right and still couldn’t win. That does not take anything away from the race winner Premier Loco who had shown he was upto winning a G3 last summer with consistent performances at a mile here in the UK and in winning a couple of G2’s in Germany. His SP of 25/1 was an insult in hindsight with such strong form in the book.
In Ireland on Sunday, the Irish Derby was won by Cape Blanco and that was a huge form boost for the Derby winner Workforce. The prospect of a rematch between these two in the King George at Ascot in July is mouth-watering.
Today’s Racing Selections
Not much of a day for racing today. I can usually find one at Pontefract as the draw helps a lot here on this tight turning track; but not today. Sir Mark Prescott has a solitary runner out today at Pontefract in the 4:15 called Cheyenne Chant. It was a beaten fav LTO, so there may be some stable confidence behind it, and it has a couple of close relatives rated 15lb+ better so there is scope for improvement on what’s been seen to-date.
There not much at either of the evening meetings at first glance, though if I come across anything later on I will post it up.
Otherwise, no selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Review of yesterday’s game, England v Germany
Review of Saturday’s racing selection and weekend racing
Today’s Racing Selections
Review of yesterday’s game, England v Germany
The knee-jerk reaction to England’s 4:1 defeat by Germany is to sack Fabio Capello as manager and blame the referee for not allowing Lampard’s goal. However, England’s problems run deep and were there for all to see in the abysmal performances in the 3 group games and, let’s be honest, it was a very weak group. At least we can lay claim to have been beaten by Germany! What would the headlines be now if it had been a 4:1 (or more) defeat by Ghana? My look on the situation is that the Premier League (sold to the public as a springboard for success on the international stage) has failed. If a player earning £140,000 a week (John Terry) cannot find the motivation to play in position for his country then what can? £200,000 a week, how about £300,000? The Premier League has failed the England team as there is no strength in depth in the England squad. Champions Chelsea supplied only 4 players; Ashley Cole, John Terry, Frank Lampard and Joe Cole. Premiership runners-up Man Utd supplied just 3 players Rooney, Ferdinand (injured, never played) and Carrick (never played). Third in the Premiership, Arsenal, supplied none. Just 7 of the 23-man squad from the top-3 clubs in the country – say’s it all really.
I’m sure some “spin” will be put on the result to suggest it’s the fault of someone else (and remember, this is essentially the same squad that failed under Steve McClaren), but it is the fault of the system and the players.
It is not worth progressing with players now aged 28-years and older. They have shown themselves to be not good enough and they are not going to get any better; so ditch them and bring in some young blood – from the Championship teams if necessary. We need players hungry for success, not fat having gorged themselves on £6 million a year salaries.
And the structure of the Premiership needs to change with less reliability on foreign players. The starting line-up of every Premiership game should include at least 3 English players (my god, 20 years ago we only allowed 3 foreign players in a team!). That should increase to 4 players for the 2011-12 season, and 5 players for 2012-13.
What about a return of the England ‘B’ team, and matches between England ‘A’ and England ‘B’? I’m sure a 23-man squad drawn from the Championship would have fared better than the current squad of Premiership prima-donna’s.
Finally, let’s stop thinking we are the best at football as we invented the game. We are not.
Review of Saturday’s racing selection and weekend racing
I was a bit disappointed with RED JAZZ as he did everything right and still couldn’t win. That does not take anything away from the race winner Premier Loco who had shown he was upto winning a G3 last summer with consistent performances at a mile here in the UK and in winning a couple of G2’s in Germany. His SP of 25/1 was an insult in hindsight with such strong form in the book.
In Ireland on Sunday, the Irish Derby was won by Cape Blanco and that was a huge form boost for the Derby winner Workforce. The prospect of a rematch between these two in the King George at Ascot in July is mouth-watering.
Today’s Racing Selections
Not much of a day for racing today. I can usually find one at Pontefract as the draw helps a lot here on this tight turning track; but not today. Sir Mark Prescott has a solitary runner out today at Pontefract in the 4:15 called Cheyenne Chant. It was a beaten fav LTO, so there may be some stable confidence behind it, and it has a couple of close relatives rated 15lb+ better so there is scope for improvement on what’s been seen to-date.
There not much at either of the evening meetings at first glance, though if I come across anything later on I will post it up.
Otherwise, no selections today.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Saturday, 26 June 2010
Time for Jazz?
In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines – working example
Review of yesterday’s blog
I’ve no idea what happened with Jesse James as the horse was held up straight from the stalls – tactics which are destined for failure at a tight turning track like Chester unless you have a horse of exceptional ability. A point lost.
Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from and having given readers of the blog a couple of losers in recent days the focus is on finding a good winner. I am quite taken with the result of the oddsline (see below) and ORDNANCE ROW is worth a punt. But the blog hit the crossbar at Royal Ascot with RED JAZZ and if he’s in similar form he will take a lot of beating at Newmarket this afternoon in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at 3:20. The 7-furlong trip is a specialist one, not requiring the stamina of a miler nor the outright speed of a sprinter, but a combination of both - and RED JAZZ has it. But for faltering for a few yards at Ascot, he’d have won the Jersey Stakes and he’s perhaps 6lb+ better than anything in this race and, what’s more, we know what sort of race he’ll run (from the front). The odds of 11/4 currently available look generous.
Selections:
Newmarket 3:20 RED JAZZ; 2pts win @ 11/4
Oddslines – working example
Yesterday, I wasn’t able to post a full blog as I was travelling the length of the country by car. I did say that I would provide an oddsline based on the formula that I had put forward. There is a race on Saturday at Windsor that fits the bill being a Listed race with just 6 runners, the 2:55.
Asset: unplaced LTO (0pts); last ran 91 days ago (0pts); OR107 (30pts); won at trip (+10pts); won on GF (+10pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 2nd-fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 61pts
Georgebernardshaw: 5th (0pts); 28-days (1pt); OR105 (28pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 6th fav @ 8/1 (0 – 8 = -8pts) Ttl = 19pts
Ordnance Row: 6th (0pts); 22-days (7pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); won on GF (10pts); won at track (10pts); BF: 2nd -fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 77pts
Aldovrandi: 3rd (12pts); 30-days (0pts); OR102 (25pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: Fav @ 11/4 (20 – 3 = 17pts) Ttl = 64pts
Party Doctor: 6th (0pts); 50-days (0pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 4th -fav @ 4/1 (0 – 3 = -4pts) Ttl = 35pts
The Rectifier: UP (0pts); 9-days (20pts); OR102 (25pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 5th -fav @ 13/2 (0 – 7 = -7pts) Ttl = 38pts
Total points = 294pts
Oddsline is:-
ASSET: 61/294 = 20.75% or odds of 4/1
GEORGEBERNADSHAW: 19/294 = 6.46% or odds of 14/1
ORDNANCE ROW: 77/294 = 26.19% or odds of 11/4
ALDOVRANDI: 64/294 = 21.77% or odds of 7/2
PARTY DOCTOR: 35/294 = 11.90% or odds of 8/1
THE RECTIFIER: 38/294 = 12.93% or odds of 7/1
The best value according to the oddsline is ORDNANCE ROW who is 7/2 in the betting forecast, but should be 11/4 according to the oddsline.
Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines – working example
Review of yesterday’s blog
I’ve no idea what happened with Jesse James as the horse was held up straight from the stalls – tactics which are destined for failure at a tight turning track like Chester unless you have a horse of exceptional ability. A point lost.
Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from and having given readers of the blog a couple of losers in recent days the focus is on finding a good winner. I am quite taken with the result of the oddsline (see below) and ORDNANCE ROW is worth a punt. But the blog hit the crossbar at Royal Ascot with RED JAZZ and if he’s in similar form he will take a lot of beating at Newmarket this afternoon in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at 3:20. The 7-furlong trip is a specialist one, not requiring the stamina of a miler nor the outright speed of a sprinter, but a combination of both - and RED JAZZ has it. But for faltering for a few yards at Ascot, he’d have won the Jersey Stakes and he’s perhaps 6lb+ better than anything in this race and, what’s more, we know what sort of race he’ll run (from the front). The odds of 11/4 currently available look generous.
Selections:
Newmarket 3:20 RED JAZZ; 2pts win @ 11/4
Oddslines – working example
Yesterday, I wasn’t able to post a full blog as I was travelling the length of the country by car. I did say that I would provide an oddsline based on the formula that I had put forward. There is a race on Saturday at Windsor that fits the bill being a Listed race with just 6 runners, the 2:55.
Asset: unplaced LTO (0pts); last ran 91 days ago (0pts); OR107 (30pts); won at trip (+10pts); won on GF (+10pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 2nd-fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 61pts
Georgebernardshaw: 5th (0pts); 28-days (1pt); OR105 (28pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 6th fav @ 8/1 (0 – 8 = -8pts) Ttl = 19pts
Ordnance Row: 6th (0pts); 22-days (7pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); won on GF (10pts); won at track (10pts); BF: 2nd -fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 77pts
Aldovrandi: 3rd (12pts); 30-days (0pts); OR102 (25pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: Fav @ 11/4 (20 – 3 = 17pts) Ttl = 64pts
Party Doctor: 6th (0pts); 50-days (0pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 4th -fav @ 4/1 (0 – 3 = -4pts) Ttl = 35pts
The Rectifier: UP (0pts); 9-days (20pts); OR102 (25pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 5th -fav @ 13/2 (0 – 7 = -7pts) Ttl = 38pts
Total points = 294pts
Oddsline is:-
ASSET: 61/294 = 20.75% or odds of 4/1
GEORGEBERNADSHAW: 19/294 = 6.46% or odds of 14/1
ORDNANCE ROW: 77/294 = 26.19% or odds of 11/4
ALDOVRANDI: 64/294 = 21.77% or odds of 7/2
PARTY DOCTOR: 35/294 = 11.90% or odds of 8/1
THE RECTIFIER: 38/294 = 12.93% or odds of 7/1
The best value according to the oddsline is ORDNANCE ROW who is 7/2 in the betting forecast, but should be 11/4 according to the oddsline.
Thanks for reading my blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find my blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add my blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.
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