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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 26 June 2010

Time for Jazz?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s blog
Today’s Racing Selections
Oddslines – working example

Review of yesterday’s blog
I’ve no idea what happened with Jesse James as the horse was held up straight from the stalls – tactics which are destined for failure at a tight turning track like Chester unless you have a horse of exceptional ability. A point lost.

Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from and having given readers of the blog a couple of losers in recent days the focus is on finding a good winner. I am quite taken with the result of the oddsline (see below) and ORDNANCE ROW is worth a punt. But the blog hit the crossbar at Royal Ascot with RED JAZZ and if he’s in similar form he will take a lot of beating at Newmarket this afternoon in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at 3:20. The 7-furlong trip is a specialist one, not requiring the stamina of a miler nor the outright speed of a sprinter, but a combination of both - and RED JAZZ has it. But for faltering for a few yards at Ascot, he’d have won the Jersey Stakes and he’s perhaps 6lb+ better than anything in this race and, what’s more, we know what sort of race he’ll run (from the front). The odds of 11/4 currently available look generous.

Newmarket 3:20 RED JAZZ; 2pts win @ 11/4

Oddslines – working example
Yesterday, I wasn’t able to post a full blog as I was travelling the length of the country by car. I did say that I would provide an oddsline based on the formula that I had put forward. There is a race on Saturday at Windsor that fits the bill being a Listed race with just 6 runners, the 2:55.
Asset: unplaced LTO (0pts); last ran 91 days ago (0pts); OR107 (30pts); won at trip (+10pts); won on GF (+10pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 2nd-fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 61pts
Georgebernardshaw: 5th (0pts); 28-days (1pt); OR105 (28pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); betting forecast (BF) 6th fav @ 8/1 (0 – 8 = -8pts) Ttl = 19pts
Ordnance Row: 6th (0pts); 22-days (7pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); won on GF (10pts); won at track (10pts); BF: 2nd -fav @ 7/2 (15 – 4 = 11pts) Ttl = 77pts
Aldovrandi: 3rd (12pts); 30-days (0pts); OR102 (25pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: Fav @ 11/4 (20 – 3 = 17pts) Ttl = 64pts
Party Doctor: 6th (0pts); 50-days (0pts); OR106 (29pts) won at trip (10pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 4th -fav @ 4/1 (0 – 3 = -4pts) Ttl = 35pts
The Rectifier: UP (0pts); 9-days (20pts); OR102 (25pts); not won at trip (0pts); not won on GF (0pts); not won at track (0pts); BF: 5th -fav @ 13/2 (0 – 7 = -7pts) Ttl = 38pts
Total points = 294pts
Oddsline is:-
ASSET: 61/294 = 20.75% or odds of 4/1
GEORGEBERNADSHAW: 19/294 = 6.46% or odds of 14/1
ORDNANCE ROW: 77/294 = 26.19% or odds of 11/4
ALDOVRANDI: 64/294 = 21.77% or odds of 7/2
PARTY DOCTOR: 35/294 = 11.90% or odds of 8/1
THE RECTIFIER: 38/294 = 12.93% or odds of 7/1
The best value according to the oddsline is ORDNANCE ROW who is 7/2 in the betting forecast, but should be 11/4 according to the oddsline.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

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