In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
More than once I’ve read that if you’re going to have a “bet”, don’t bother unless the stake means something. Yesterday, I thought FREE WORLD was worthy of a substantial wager, and I got it wrong.
I thought the horse was a sub-2/1 chance and that the horse with something to prove in the race was Riverside Theatre (the eventual winner). As such, when 4/1 was put up first by Stan James, and then by Corals, I jumped in with both feet. The horse looked (according to paddock observers) superb. It was the only runner of Paul Nicholls on the day, and the only ride for Ruby Walsh. It was Walsh who voiced the only concern, suggesting the horse may not stay the 2m4f trip. There was a minor jumping error early-on, but for the rest of the race he jumped well; and when he improved to dispute 2nd before the 3rd-last fence I thought “here goes”. Not to be – a blunder at that fence and his chance was dented, but his lack of effort thereon suggests he did not stay another yard. On reflection, Riverside Theatre merely had to run up to last season’s form to win this, and it was (in the end) a facile victory.
That made it a double for Nicky Henderson, who’s hurdler Working Title won the class 2 h’cap hurdle. He was aided considerably by the fall at the 2nd-last of Alderluck who was just leading at the time. There has been talk of Henderson’s horses being under a cloud (probably a rumour spread by those who had their money on Barbers Shop in the Charlie Hall last Saturday), but with 6 winners from his last 19 runners since 27th October (the last 5-days) his horses seem well-enough to me, and the odds of 2/1 to be top British jumps trainer have been trimmed to 7/4 this morning.
I’m sure I acknowledged the emergence of Neil Mulholland the other day, but I cannot find the reference now. Anyway, he had another winner y’day at Plumpton @ 20/1 with Just The Job. Mulholland is in tip-top form (as he was at this time last year) and, in the last 14-days, apart from Big Knickers who pulled-up (there's a joke in here somewhere!) when a 7/2 fav; from his other 9 runners he’s had 3 wins, 4 x 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th. He’s a man with a big future.
Today’s horseracing
We have the highlight of the Exeter season today with the Haldon Gold Cup over 2m1f &110yards.
I was on Tchico Polos at this meeting last year when he “stole” the novice chase by taking an extended lead early-on. I expect the same tactics will be used today but he was found out by SOMERSBY at Sandown over 2-mile and the 3lb pull he has will not be enough today. I expect SOMERSBY to win today, mainly as the others are all exposed and shown not to be up to this level – other than Twist Magic, but he is not racing at his beloved Sandown today. Looking at the betting, the one that jumps off the page is CHANINBAR who ran a cracker at Cheltenham 17-days ago over a trip half-a-mile too far for him (0 from 4). Dropped back to today’s trip will suit him, tho’ the going may be a bit on the soft side. Since returning to chasing he has improved leaps’n’bounds, and at 12/1 he could be value for a place.
Later on the card in the novice hurdle at 4:35 is a potential improver in COURT IN MOTION who is a half-brother to Bensalem (OR153 hurdles). Bensalem improved considerably in his 5-6yo season, and I’ve heard a rumour that COURT IN MOTION has come-on a bundle this summer. Current odds of 5/6 mean I cannot recommend him as a selection for the blog, but I would not put anyone off having a wager on him.
The h’cap chase over 3-mile at 3:35 looks a good opportunity for VAMIZI. The horse who beat him LTO, has won since and the form has held-up well. Today’s trip and going both suit VAMIZI and apart from Swing Bill who will run his usual solid race, it is difficult to see another challenger. Swing Bill looks to need some respite from the handicapper, and is one-paced. At current odds of 100/30, VAMIZI looks fair value.
Selection:
Exeter 3:35 VAMIZI, 1pt win @ 100/30 (various)
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Tuesday, 2 November 2010
Monday, 1 November 2010
FREE WORLD: only runner for Nicholls & Walsh
In today’s blog:-
Today’s horseracing
October’s highlight’s
Today’s horseracing
There are a couple of decent jump meetings today at Kempton and Plumpton – why have both jump meetings in the South-East of England? In fact, there isn’t a meeting north of Birmingham until Haydock on Thursday – bonkers!
There are a couple of good races at Kempton, the highlight being the graduation chase at 3:10 over 2m4f & 110yards. There are 3 horses in this that I noted last season, Bakbenscher, Riverside Theatre and from my C&H Alert List, FREE WORLD. Today’s good going is likely to be too quick for Bakbenscher, tho’ he will stay this trip. I do have my doubts that Riverside Theatre will stay today’s trip, and he also has to give 3lb to FREE WORLD. I really like FREE WORLD and this small field could bring about an improved display of jumping which has been his undoing in recent runs. Odds of 7/2 look tremendous for a horse with bags of improvement to come and one that goes well when fresh. In my opinion, it will take a superlative performance to beat FREE WORLD at these weights and, take note, this is the only runner for Paul Nicholls today and the only booked ride for Ruby Walsh.
The race at 2:40, a handicap hurdle (class 2) also looks interesting. The fav Working Title is probably too short at 5/2, and I would favour his stable-mate Tasheba over him anyway. There’s been a move for Always Bold, and King’s Forest and Alderluck have claims too. For me, Working Title is a “lay”, as it’s too competitive to find a winner in this.
The meeting at my local track Plumpton is fair enough, but nothing jumps off the page at me. Venetia Williams sends just Mannlichen to the track for the opener at 12:50 and this could be a decent novice hurdler, so 9/2 looks fair value.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10 FREE WORLD, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
October’s highlight’s
October was a fairly quiet month on the selection front for the blog.
Even so, I did come up with a few cracking winners, and they weren’t all about racing either!
He may no longer best the World’s No.1 golfer, but Tiger Woods produced the best individual round of golf at the Ryder Cup and - as I predicted – ended up the joint-top US point’s scorer. If you took the advice and the odds of 11/2, you would have been rewarded with a 5.50pt profit.
Headline of the month was “TWICE OVER to make it twice over” and he did too, winning the Champions Stakes in style on a fantastic day for trainer Henry Cecil. I advised taking the odds of 9/2 in the morning (SP was 7/2).
Another winning wager was on SIR IAN (advised @ 7/2) who never looked in danger when winning. There were near misses with eachway wagers on OUZBECK (3rd @ 12/1) and ROCKITEER (2nd @ 11/1) and I feel that we can’t be far away from a winner at good odds soon to fill the coffers.
The Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List found the winners enclosure for the 1st time this season when WEIRD AL won yesterday, and there will be a lot more to come.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Today’s horseracing
October’s highlight’s
Today’s horseracing
There are a couple of decent jump meetings today at Kempton and Plumpton – why have both jump meetings in the South-East of England? In fact, there isn’t a meeting north of Birmingham until Haydock on Thursday – bonkers!
There are a couple of good races at Kempton, the highlight being the graduation chase at 3:10 over 2m4f & 110yards. There are 3 horses in this that I noted last season, Bakbenscher, Riverside Theatre and from my C&H Alert List, FREE WORLD. Today’s good going is likely to be too quick for Bakbenscher, tho’ he will stay this trip. I do have my doubts that Riverside Theatre will stay today’s trip, and he also has to give 3lb to FREE WORLD. I really like FREE WORLD and this small field could bring about an improved display of jumping which has been his undoing in recent runs. Odds of 7/2 look tremendous for a horse with bags of improvement to come and one that goes well when fresh. In my opinion, it will take a superlative performance to beat FREE WORLD at these weights and, take note, this is the only runner for Paul Nicholls today and the only booked ride for Ruby Walsh.
The race at 2:40, a handicap hurdle (class 2) also looks interesting. The fav Working Title is probably too short at 5/2, and I would favour his stable-mate Tasheba over him anyway. There’s been a move for Always Bold, and King’s Forest and Alderluck have claims too. For me, Working Title is a “lay”, as it’s too competitive to find a winner in this.
The meeting at my local track Plumpton is fair enough, but nothing jumps off the page at me. Venetia Williams sends just Mannlichen to the track for the opener at 12:50 and this could be a decent novice hurdler, so 9/2 looks fair value.
Selection:
Kempton 3:10 FREE WORLD, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
October’s highlight’s
October was a fairly quiet month on the selection front for the blog.
Even so, I did come up with a few cracking winners, and they weren’t all about racing either!
He may no longer best the World’s No.1 golfer, but Tiger Woods produced the best individual round of golf at the Ryder Cup and - as I predicted – ended up the joint-top US point’s scorer. If you took the advice and the odds of 11/2, you would have been rewarded with a 5.50pt profit.
Headline of the month was “TWICE OVER to make it twice over” and he did too, winning the Champions Stakes in style on a fantastic day for trainer Henry Cecil. I advised taking the odds of 9/2 in the morning (SP was 7/2).
Another winning wager was on SIR IAN (advised @ 7/2) who never looked in danger when winning. There were near misses with eachway wagers on OUZBECK (3rd @ 12/1) and ROCKITEER (2nd @ 11/1) and I feel that we can’t be far away from a winner at good odds soon to fill the coffers.
The Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List found the winners enclosure for the 1st time this season when WEIRD AL won yesterday, and there will be a lot more to come.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Sunday, 31 October 2010
WEIRD AL provides 1st win for the "Jumps" Alert List
In today’s blog:-
Saturday’s horseracing
Sunday’s horseracing
Saturday’s horseracing
There were no wins for the blog from the 3 selections put up on Friday evening for Saturday's racing. This was a big disappointing as they all ran well enough, especially THE TOTHER ONE in the ‘Charlie Hall” at Wetherby. He battled–on, under hard driving from Ruby Walsh, to grab 2nd place but never really threatened the winner Nacarat. I did not expect such a good run from Nacarat as he usually shows his best form after Xmas and had not shown himself to be an autumn horse (prior to Saturday he was 0 from 4 starts pre-Xmas). I hope THE TOTHER ONE remains on OR155 and if he finds good-to-soft next time then he should recoup. Also at Wetherby, BLAZING BAILEY never got a look in. You have to go against the crowd if you want to make a profit at racing, as following the herd won’t find you value odds. This one tho’ was a bit too left-wing.
At Ascot, EXMOOR RANGER was very nearly placed at odds of 14/1. His early jumping was a bit sketchy and he really hit the 3rd fence hard. He was still in last place with 8 fences to jump (and was about 20-lengths behind the leader), but from there stayed on strong and moved into 4th at the 2nd-last fence but was unable to pass the 3rd horse after the last fence. He improved a lot for his seasonal debut last autumn (ran 7th in the ‘Badger’) and I expect him to run particularly well NTO. I was impressed with the runner-up Take The Breeze as I did not think he stayed 3-mile at this level. He made me some money last season as I thought he was under-rated as a novice chaser and he is well handicapped. I reckon if racing over 20-22f NTO he should do well. The fact that SAFARI JOURNEY won his race so easily later on the card, suggests the going was on the quick side of good at Ascot as he is a real fast-ground specialist.
Sunday’s horseracing
There were no blog selections today, but there were 2 horses running from the Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List in WEIRD AL and GENTLE RANGER, both at Carlisle.
WEIRD AL was running over 20f (which is perhaps a bit on the short-side for him now) and giving weight away all-round but, even so, he was well-treated. Race fav Cape Tribulation did not handle this right-handed track at all and was pulled-up. WEIRD AL was out-paced 3-out but stayed on (having been 4-lengths down at the last fence) to get up on the line for a dead-heat with LITTLE JOSH. In my opinion, Little Josh is better than OR140 but his best form is on soft/heavy going (5 wins from 6 starts) and he undoubtedly found this going too lively for him and he ran too fresh. For me, it was a good seasonal debut for WEIRD AL and he will improve for a step up in trip to 3-mile.
It was a big ask of GENTLE RANGER with 11:12 in the 3m2f handicap chase, and tho’ he led to the 12th fence once he was headed he soon threw-in the towel, and was pulled-up. Lucinda Russell had won this race for the 2 previous years, and she won it again with ETXALAR. Last year’s winner Silver By Nature went on to be 2nd in the Welsh National and is now not far off Gold Cup class. It was Etxalar’s 6th chase today, and he’s sure to have some improvement in him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Saturday’s horseracing
Sunday’s horseracing
Saturday’s horseracing
There were no wins for the blog from the 3 selections put up on Friday evening for Saturday's racing. This was a big disappointing as they all ran well enough, especially THE TOTHER ONE in the ‘Charlie Hall” at Wetherby. He battled–on, under hard driving from Ruby Walsh, to grab 2nd place but never really threatened the winner Nacarat. I did not expect such a good run from Nacarat as he usually shows his best form after Xmas and had not shown himself to be an autumn horse (prior to Saturday he was 0 from 4 starts pre-Xmas). I hope THE TOTHER ONE remains on OR155 and if he finds good-to-soft next time then he should recoup. Also at Wetherby, BLAZING BAILEY never got a look in. You have to go against the crowd if you want to make a profit at racing, as following the herd won’t find you value odds. This one tho’ was a bit too left-wing.
At Ascot, EXMOOR RANGER was very nearly placed at odds of 14/1. His early jumping was a bit sketchy and he really hit the 3rd fence hard. He was still in last place with 8 fences to jump (and was about 20-lengths behind the leader), but from there stayed on strong and moved into 4th at the 2nd-last fence but was unable to pass the 3rd horse after the last fence. He improved a lot for his seasonal debut last autumn (ran 7th in the ‘Badger’) and I expect him to run particularly well NTO. I was impressed with the runner-up Take The Breeze as I did not think he stayed 3-mile at this level. He made me some money last season as I thought he was under-rated as a novice chaser and he is well handicapped. I reckon if racing over 20-22f NTO he should do well. The fact that SAFARI JOURNEY won his race so easily later on the card, suggests the going was on the quick side of good at Ascot as he is a real fast-ground specialist.
Sunday’s horseracing
There were no blog selections today, but there were 2 horses running from the Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List in WEIRD AL and GENTLE RANGER, both at Carlisle.
WEIRD AL was running over 20f (which is perhaps a bit on the short-side for him now) and giving weight away all-round but, even so, he was well-treated. Race fav Cape Tribulation did not handle this right-handed track at all and was pulled-up. WEIRD AL was out-paced 3-out but stayed on (having been 4-lengths down at the last fence) to get up on the line for a dead-heat with LITTLE JOSH. In my opinion, Little Josh is better than OR140 but his best form is on soft/heavy going (5 wins from 6 starts) and he undoubtedly found this going too lively for him and he ran too fresh. For me, it was a good seasonal debut for WEIRD AL and he will improve for a step up in trip to 3-mile.
It was a big ask of GENTLE RANGER with 11:12 in the 3m2f handicap chase, and tho’ he led to the 12th fence once he was headed he soon threw-in the towel, and was pulled-up. Lucinda Russell had won this race for the 2 previous years, and she won it again with ETXALAR. Last year’s winner Silver By Nature went on to be 2nd in the Welsh National and is now not far off Gold Cup class. It was Etxalar’s 6th chase today, and he’s sure to have some improvement in him.
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Friday, 29 October 2010
THE TOTHER ONE to prove too strong
In today’s blog:-
Yesterday’s horseracing
Review of today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
There was a bit of a market move for PACCO, but it came to nothing; the horse was never in the race. The feature race at Wetherby was won by Neptune Equester and he did it really well, running on strong after the 2nd last and coming home a clear winner. Given that he only ran for the first time in January, that he stays 3-mile plus, and he’s won 3 of his last 4 chases; NEPTUNE EQUESTER is one for the notebook. The blog selection SOULARD, ran in snatches. He looked capable of being involved in the finish 4-out but wasn’t fit enough to stay-on. He’ll go better next time out.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Ascot and Wetherby on Saturday.
There is some cracking racing at Wetherby and the 3m1f hurdle looks a good betting medium. It’s out on a limb, but BLAZING BAILEY has the best hurdles form in this field and it is not detrimental that he spent last season novice chasing without achieving comparative success as several in this field have undergone a similar reversal back to hurdles. Odds of 10/1 look eachway value to me as there are 3-places.
In the Charlie Hall, The Tother One ran some great races last season without winning and as such you should ignore his OR155 as he should be OR160+. This trip is right up his street, but may prefer some give. As such, if it turns softer then lump on (double stakes). Everything is in place for Deep Purple to repeat last year’s win, and as he has won 7 of his 10 starts before 31st Dec this is the time to support him. But, the 10lb he gives to THE TOTHER ONE may prove too much and 4/1 looks fair value.
At Ascot, there is a 3-mile listed chase with a good field of 13 runners. Most could have a chance on form and it may not be a race to be heavily involved in. But, Vic Dartnall sends his only runner of the day for this in EXMOOR RANGER, and he very rarely visits Ascot. EXMOOR RANGER never ran a bad race last season and was only just beaten at Sandown by Monkerhostin. If he starts in similar form he will be hard to beat. Early indications are his odds will be generous, Paddy Power go 12/1.
The listed handicap hurdle over 2-mile at 4:15 needs to be won by top-weight GET ME OUT OF HERE if he is to be truly a Champion Hurdle candidate. I sincerely hope the horse does well, but I fear that he will not prove good enough to win a Champion Hurdle and as such, he may be exposed tomorrow.
I’m posting this blog on Friday evening as I’m travelling on Saturday to Cornwall returning my 8yo son to his mother. A long journey (650 miles in total, and 13 hours driving) and not one I look forward to. But we’ve had a good week and hopefully my investment in him will pay dividends in the long run, as he is the one who benefits from my involvement in his life.
So, for Saturday:-
Selections:
Wetherby 2:50 BLAZING BAILEY, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Vic Chandler)
Wetherby 3:25 THE TOTHER ONE, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) – double stake if turning soft
Ascot 3:40 EXMOOR RANGER, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Total = 3pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
Yesterday’s horseracing
Review of today’s horseracing
Yesterday’s horseracing
There was a bit of a market move for PACCO, but it came to nothing; the horse was never in the race. The feature race at Wetherby was won by Neptune Equester and he did it really well, running on strong after the 2nd last and coming home a clear winner. Given that he only ran for the first time in January, that he stays 3-mile plus, and he’s won 3 of his last 4 chases; NEPTUNE EQUESTER is one for the notebook. The blog selection SOULARD, ran in snatches. He looked capable of being involved in the finish 4-out but wasn’t fit enough to stay-on. He’ll go better next time out.
Today’s horseracing
There are jump meetings at Ascot and Wetherby on Saturday.
There is some cracking racing at Wetherby and the 3m1f hurdle looks a good betting medium. It’s out on a limb, but BLAZING BAILEY has the best hurdles form in this field and it is not detrimental that he spent last season novice chasing without achieving comparative success as several in this field have undergone a similar reversal back to hurdles. Odds of 10/1 look eachway value to me as there are 3-places.
In the Charlie Hall, The Tother One ran some great races last season without winning and as such you should ignore his OR155 as he should be OR160+. This trip is right up his street, but may prefer some give. As such, if it turns softer then lump on (double stakes). Everything is in place for Deep Purple to repeat last year’s win, and as he has won 7 of his 10 starts before 31st Dec this is the time to support him. But, the 10lb he gives to THE TOTHER ONE may prove too much and 4/1 looks fair value.
At Ascot, there is a 3-mile listed chase with a good field of 13 runners. Most could have a chance on form and it may not be a race to be heavily involved in. But, Vic Dartnall sends his only runner of the day for this in EXMOOR RANGER, and he very rarely visits Ascot. EXMOOR RANGER never ran a bad race last season and was only just beaten at Sandown by Monkerhostin. If he starts in similar form he will be hard to beat. Early indications are his odds will be generous, Paddy Power go 12/1.
The listed handicap hurdle over 2-mile at 4:15 needs to be won by top-weight GET ME OUT OF HERE if he is to be truly a Champion Hurdle candidate. I sincerely hope the horse does well, but I fear that he will not prove good enough to win a Champion Hurdle and as such, he may be exposed tomorrow.
I’m posting this blog on Friday evening as I’m travelling on Saturday to Cornwall returning my 8yo son to his mother. A long journey (650 miles in total, and 13 hours driving) and not one I look forward to. But we’ve had a good week and hopefully my investment in him will pay dividends in the long run, as he is the one who benefits from my involvement in his life.
So, for Saturday:-
Selections:
Wetherby 2:50 BLAZING BAILEY, ½pt eachway @ 10/1 (Vic Chandler)
Wetherby 3:25 THE TOTHER ONE, 1pt win @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) – double stake if turning soft
Ascot 3:40 EXMOOR RANGER, ½pt eachway @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Total = 3pts staked
Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad
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