Lookahead to the weekends Dublin Festival

The cold breath of winter has blown across the nation and a heavy frost has resulted in several meetings being lost.  Musselburgh has already raised the "white flag" and surrendered to the weather, which means only Sandown and Wetherby remain available for jump racing on Saturday.

As I write (Thursday afternoon), it is not certain the Sandown will get the go-ahead and a decision is to be made on Friday afternoon. Losing Sandown will be a blow, as there is a good Class 2 handicap chase over 2-mile, the Listed hurdle race over 2-mile which Buveur D'Air usually uses as a 'prep' race for the Champion Hurdle, and then there's the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase over 2m4f. To follow, there's a 3-mile Grade 3 handicap hurdle, and a 3-mile Class 2 handicap Chase – an absolutely cracking card.

I'm going to give it until Friday afternoon before taking a look at the runners on Saturday at Sandown (the Wetherby card does not look anywhere near as good), and instead look at Ireland.

Leopardstown, situated just outside Dublin, holds the 2-day "Dublin Festival", and many of the top Irish-trained horses are having their final run before the Cheltenham Festival on either Saturday or Sunday. The top trainers Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have many multiple entries for the races, and it remains to be seen which will actually take part: for instance, in the opening race on Saturday a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m6f, of the 25 entries Mullins supplies 6 entries and Elliott supplies 5 entries.

Because of the expected frost on Friday night, the course management has announced they are re-structuring the running-order of the races with the hurdles being run first and the chases later in the day to give the frost the opportunity to get out of the ground; so check race times before having a wager. 

On Saturday, the Dublin Chase run over 2m1f should see MIN confirmed as the top "2-mile" chaser trained in Ireland, but where will that will leave his stable companion Footpad?  It is probably too late now to target another race distance, so I'm expecting Footpad to head for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham (run over 2m1f) unless he's really well beaten, in which case they might pull-up stumps for the season and have a rethink.  The Irish "Arkle" novice chase over 2m1f (won by Footpad last year) looks a cracker, with 6 LTO winners amongst the 12 entries. This meeting will be a real test for the "prince" of trainers Joseph O'Brien, and his promising novice chaser LE RICHEBOURG will know he's been in a race after this.

The Irish Champion Hurdle over 2-miles has only attracted 6 entries, but I'm expecting all to go to post and this race should be won by MELON. I honestly think the mare Apple's Jade will not have the speed for this trip, and she will revert back to longer trips.  The interesting runner is Petit Mouchoir who won this race in 2017 before running 3^rd at Cheltenham in the Champion Hurdle; he could be a live outsider as I'm sure his trainer would not persevere with hurdles if he did not think he had a chance.  

On Sunday, I will be very interested in the 4yo novice hurdle over 2-miles and the following "supreme" novices hurdle over the same trip. Then comes a race that could have a major impact later this Spring when RATHVINDEN runs in the 3-mile handicap hurdle.  I said after he won the 4-mile NH Chase last March that he was a long-term Grand National horse, and it looks like Willie Mullins is thinking along the same lines. Later in the afternoon come the 2 races we will all be interested in: the Grade 1 "Flogas" Novice Chase over 2m5f (this used to be called the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase) and the field for this looks top-class, followed by the Grade 1 Unibet Irish Gold Cup over 3-mile.  The novice chase includes Delta Work, La Bague Au Roi, and MORTAL and it is the latter who I think will win on Sunday and stamp his authority as the top staying novice chaser this season. I'm not sure which race he will run in at Cheltenham, so I've taken odds for both the RSA Chase (3-miles) and the NH Chase (4-miles).

The Irish Gold Cup will hopefully answer a few questions as we have not seen a top staying chaser emerge from Ireland since Sizing John who won the Gold Cup in 2017. The Mullins-trained pair of Al Boum Photo and Kemboy will both be trying to establish their credentials and one or the other should win as this field looks to lack depth in my opinion.    

Cheltenham Festival Portfolio

Cheltenham Gold Cup

CLAN DES OBEAUX, £12 win @ 12/1

Ryanair Chase

POLITOLOGUE, £38 win @ 14/1 (average odds - current intention is to lay-off £28 at SP on the day)

POLITOLOGUE, £5 place @ 12/1

Champion Hurdle

SHARJAH, £20 win @ 12/1 (current intention is to lay-off £10 at SP on the day)

RSA Chase (Novices 3-mile)

MORTAL, £11 win @ 16/1

NH Chase (Novices 4-mile)

MORTAL, £9 win @ 20/1

A look-back at Saturdays racing - 26th Jan

It was a great day of racing on Saturday at Cheltenham, even if all my recommended wagers went astray, and meeting-up with old friends to dedicate a bench on the lawns and raise a glass to departed, but not forgotten friends, warmed the heart.

The weather was kind as I was expecting the wind to be bracing and the weather to be wet, and Cheltenham was rewarded with a good crowd, knowledgeable and friendly as always.

Finding a place to read the form inside, and to rest the legs, proved tricky as the racecourse management have decided to remove nearly every table and most of the chairs.  Those chairs that remain look to be on their "last legs" and I very much doubt that they will be replaced.

Racing is mainly about the social aspect for about 60% of the crowd, with 30% wanting to have a wager for the fun of it, and the remaining 10% truly interested in what is taking place on the course and place a "proper" wager. And the racecourse should not forget that 10% - who have no intent in propping-up the bar for 4 hours buying Guinness at £5.80 a pint, or paying £10.50 for a burger (chips are an extra £3.50) which you have to eat standing up – no plate, no table, no cutlery, no service.  I can get better quality food in my local pub for less cost and eat it sat at a table off a plate.  I understand the course is only used on race-days and running-costs have to be covered, but come on!

The racing fortunately, did not disappoint.

From the off there were Festival pointers, and that young man Joseph O'Brien sent only 2 horses over from Ireland for the day, and they finished 1^st & 2^nd in the opening Triumph "trial" hurdle; with winner Fakir D'Oudaires absolutely taking the race apart and leaving leading British hope Adjali left toiling. This was Joseph O'Brien's first winner at Cheltenham and it won't be the last; he looks a king-in-waiting likely to takeover residency of Ballydoyle from his father in due course. What I took from that opening race was that the ground was more testing than the description good-to-soft suggested. Some parts of the course looked soft to me, and having proven stamina led me to the winner of the 2^nd race Kildisart in the novices handicap chase over 2m5f (race distance extended by 113 yards).

The softer ground turned me against Spiritofthegames as while I thought he'd stay the trip, he didn't have the look of a 3/1 fav to me, and so I swapped allegiance to the morning fav Kildisart who had eased to 9/2 in the betting (from 3/1). Kildisart had won twice over the trip including LTO at Ascot, and on soft ground in a Class 2 hurdle at Kempton last March; so no stamina doubts at all and he handled the ground.  He didn't jump particularly well, but he had enough in-hand to easily rein-in the leader and assert his authority on the run-in. There is scope for improvement and he looks a 150+ chaser in the making.  

I didn't have a wager in the 3^rd race on the card, and the finish was disputed by the two 6yo's in the race; Siruh Du Lac and Janika. Daryl Jacob, who rode Kildisart, nearly had a 2^nd winner on the day in Janika but was denied on the line. That Janika was having only his 2^nd race for Nicky Henderson since arriving from France (where he won his last 3 races there, all chases) and he holds a Ryanair Chase entry was reason enough to make him the 5/2 fav for this, especially as he met defeat on his UK debut only due to a well-handicapped rival having a "going" day when everything came together. Unless he can find another 10lb of improvement, he isn't winning a Ryanair Chase in 6 weeks' time, but providing the handicapper isn't too tough (and he shouldn't be) he looks a very serious handicap horse come the Festival whichever race he contests.

Siruh Du Lac maintained his unbeaten run winning his 3^rd race this season.  From an opening rating of OR114 in his debut chase (when he pulled-up), Nick Williams has guided this chaser to win 5 of his 7 races and on Saturday he won off OR134 – he looks very capable of being a 140+ chaser over this sort of trip. His only defeat in completed races has been on heavy ground.

The Cotswold Chase over 3m2f (the distance was increased by 151 yards) was intriguing for the punter: would the highly rated Frodon stay the trip, or would Welsh National winner Elegant Escape grind him down in a stamina battle. In the favour of Frodon was the ground, being good-to-soft meant that there was more likelihood of him staying. When I assessed the race earlier in the week, I thought Frodon had a favourites chance as he was clearly the best horse in the race by some margin and winning was dependent only on his stamina; as such I'm surprised to learn that he didn't actually start the race the fav as that went to Elegant Escape whose SP was 2/1.  Unfortunately, my judgement had been swayed by Minella Rocco who looked very fit in the paddock and I was expecting this old campaigner to show the younger horses a thing or two: how wrong I was.

Watching the race, it panned-out as I expected (if excluding Minella Rocco who threw-in the towel about a mile out) and after jumping the 2^nd last fence in the lead, I thought I saw Frodon starting to tie-up on the run to the final fence. At that point I expected Terrefort to be the likely winner but he had little left for the run-in, and it was Elegant Escape - who was about 6-lengths off the leader jumping the final fence - who stayed-on best up the hill.

Personally, I don't think Frodon could have held on to the lead for much longer, and I can't see him winning a Gold Cup or even finishing in the 1^st-3 against proper Grade 1 stayers like Native River, Thistlecrack, or Clan Des Obeaux.  However, Paul Nicholls knows how to market his training operation and on the run-up to the Gold Cup having "newspaper darling" Bryony Frost riding Frodon will ensure his stable is mentioned in just about every newspaper and television article!  Elegant Escape won't win a Gold Cup even if he starts running now as he's just too slow, and has no tactical speed to employ in the race. But I would be interested to know what the plans are for the 6yo Terrefort as I could see him winning a top-handicap chase off OR158.

How do I rate this race? The previous Cotswold Chase run on similar Good-to-Soft ground was in 2012 when OR158 rated Midnight Chase won in a time of 6m32.44; which was 3.16 secs quicker than Frodon but we do not have an accurate idea of the race distance.  If they ran over exactly the same trip (unlikely) then at 3-lengths per second, that's equivalent to about 10lb.  Midnight Chase was rated RPR166 for his 2012 win, so why is Frodon rated RPR170?  Surely, Frodon should be at about 156-158 if Racing Post Ratings are consistent?  When previewing the race last week, I suggested expecting Frodon to run to between 158-162 and I think that's what he did.  I thought we saw a career-best from Elegant Escape and I've rated him at 155, and that puts Frodon who carried 2lb more and beat him nearly a length, 3lb higher at 158. Rating a race isn't an exact science, much of it is opinion, but you should always rate the performance and NOT the race - that's my opinion.

Next on the card was the Ballymore Novices Hurdle over 2m5f (the race distance was extended by 132 yards) and I'm fairly sure Brewin'Upastorm would have won easily but for clipping the final hurdle and coming down. The race is difficult to rate in the circumstances, as LTO winner here Jerveys Plate ran a stinker and never looked happy, although the eventual winner Birchdale looks better than 140.  That suggests Brewin'Upastorm is 145+ but as he was unable to cope with OR150 rated Champ at Newbury on 29Dec then he's not quite at that level, but he does handle Cheltenham well.

The Cleeve Hurdle over 3-mile brought the performance of the day, when the 7yo Paisley Park destroyed a field that represented the best of the UK trained 3-mile hurdlers. I clearly vastly underrated his win LTO at Ascot in my assessment of that race. As it was , my selection Wholestone never ran his race on Saturday and was tailed-off nearly a mile-out, so I would draw a line through this run as he is usually very consistent. In 2^nd was West Approach who also chased him home at Ascot LTO and who was 3^rd in this race in 2017).  I thought West Approach matched his rating of that day at 145 (he was rated RPR155), which puts Paisley Park on 163. With Black Op even further back in 3^rd, along with Sam Spinner (4^th) and Lil Rockerfella (5^th) it is no surprise that the early quotes of 7/2 for the Stayers' Hurdle have gone and he's a best-priced 11/4 (Boylesports) for the race. Remember, Unowhatimeanharry started the Stayers' Hurdle in 2017 as the 5/6 fav; and Thistlecrack went off the "evens" fav in 2016 – and I can see Paisley Park going off no longer than 7/4 in March at the Festival.

The final race of the day was won by Benny's Bridge off OR120 in the manner of a horse with tons in-hand. Whether he will be able to win from a revised mark will depend on the opinion of the handicapper, but he probably should be followed next time out.

At Doncaster, I couldn't quite work out what was going on as the ground was being reported as "good" but the good-ground horses took a walk in the market and there was something amiss with Warriors Tale as he was as low as 5/1 on Friday having been gambled on all week, yet went off friendless at 14/1. How the trainer's rep could not offer an explanation is beyond me as the ground was (on paper) even better for him this year than it was last year when he ran 2^nd in the race.

As it was, Warriors Tale never went a yard in the race and was pulled-up well out. The question of the trainer's rep should have been "did you have a wager on Warriors Tale and, if not, why not?"

I was right to look closely at the 3-mile run at Ascot over 3-mile on 03Nov in relation to Art Mauresque, but I took the wrong one out of the race, as behind him in 3^rd that day was Go Conquer. This horse has retained his consistency this season, and with other rivals either not performing (O O Seven, Art Mauresque,and Warriors Tale), or not really staying the trip, Go Conquer was able to virtually make all at his own pace leaving enough in the tank for a final effort to win well.  Doncaster suits horse that run prominently, so I'm not sure why tactics were changed on Dingo Dollar (the 3/1 fav) but the change didn't work. If he were mine, I would miss Cheltenham and aim for the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree instead.

I'm fairly happy with my antepost portfolio for the Cheltenham Festival and I am considering doubling-up my stake on CLAN DES OBEAUX before he runs next at Newbury in the "Denman" Chase. Presenting Percy didn't really show much last week other than he is fit and well and can win a 3-mile graded hurdle, the performance didn't add anything to his chances of winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup, and there's plenty of value elsewhere.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

CLAN DES OBEAUX, £12 win @ 12/1

Ryanair Chase

POLITOLOGUE, £38 win @ 14/1 (average odds - current intention is to lay-off £28 at SP on the day)

POLITOLOGUE, £5 place @ 12/1

Champion Hurdle

SHARJAH, £20 win @ 12/1 (current intention is to lay-off £10 at SP on the day) 

Saturday's Skybet Chase & Cotswold Chase

It’s an early start for me on Saturday, as I’m heading off to Cheltenham - not just for the races but also to meet a few friends as we dedicate a bench to some departed, but not forgotten, racing souls in the morning before racing starts.

I really love going racing, and I love being at Cheltenham even more.  The atmosphere, the anticipation of the crowd, it permeates your body, warms the heart, and makes you feel alive. We all need to make the most of the short time we are on this earth, and experiencing a day out at Cheltenham amongst friends is – in my opinion – as good as it gets.

So, I’m writing this on Friday afternoon and will post later this evening; the odds that I quote will be the best available at time of writing but you may be able to obtain slightly better on Saturday morning (depending on the generosity of the bookmakers).

Away from Cheltenham first, and at Doncaster it was disappointing to see my early antepost wager on Singlefarmpayment go astray when he wasn’t declared for the race on Thursday morning – the perils of the antepost wager! There are just 11 left in the race, and I guessed wrong about Paul Nicholls: I thought he’d pull-out Art Mauresque and leave in Favorito Bucks, but he’s gone t’other way round.

With Warriors Tale (best odds 11/2) needing a career-best to win off OR153 (and his season target is probably the 2m5f “Topham” Trophy at Aintree in April), I’ve had another look at Art Maureque (best odds 9/1 Ladbrokes) and it looks better than I expected. His run at Ascot over 3-mile on 03Nov showed he gets this trip, and he was good enough to chase home Top Notch at Sandown over 2m6f last April (with O O Seven toiling in his wake at level weights).

As such, O O Seven (the 11/2 2^nd fav) who won over C&D LTO on his only run so far this season; looks held and will require a huge effort to win off OR152.

With Go Conquer (best odds 15/2) beaten into 2^nd that day by 007, I can’t see him being capable of reversing the places.

This 3-mile trip will suit Dingo Dollar (the 5/2 fav) a lot more than the 3m3f of the Ladbrokes Trophy as Dingo Dollar faded dramatically over the final 3-fences of that race. As such, I’m not convinced he will truly stay this trip as he was beaten at this meeting in the novice hurdle race over 3-mile back in 2017, and he was beaten on the run-in when racing at Ayr over 3-mile last April.

It is a big ask against these proven stayers to send Willie Boy over 3-miles for the first time in this race, and I have to overlook him.  It’s the same for Calipto who has never looked like staying beyond 2m4f; and there is little to recommend the others – Brian Boranha, Monbeg River, or Federici.

For me, ART MAURESQUE @ 9/1 could be the one to take this and he looks good eachway value as I would have him at 5/1 for this based on his Ascot run in November.

I’ve already looked at a couple of the Cheltenham races earlier this week, and for the Cleeve Hurdle last year my money was on WHOLESTONE in this race, when he was outstayed by Agrapart on the heavy ground. That rival will not have the ground in his favour this year, and Wholestone also has the beating of Lil Rockerfeller, Uknowatimeanharry, Sam Spinner.  With no worries over trip, ground, or course he can reverse the places with Midnight Shadow - who beat him LTO over 2m4f -  as that horse, and Black Op who reverts from novice chasing, has stamina doubts at this trip.To me WHOLESTONE looks tremendous value in a race filled with “what if’s and maybe’s” at odds of 10/1 with Ladbrokes, Hills and Corals

The result of the 3m1f &56 yard (Grade 2) Cotswold Chase depends on whether course-specialist Frodon (the 9/4 fav) can stay the trip. He was 2^nd over 3-mile at Ascot in December 2017, and followed up that run with an emphatic win at this meeting over 2m5f the following month. He beat some proper 3-mile stayers that day, so there are no holes in the form, it just wasn’t strong enough to win this race. I think Frodon is a better horse now than he was then, but there is still a doubt about him staying this trip as all the recent winners have been “proper” top-class stayers.

Valtor (best odds 11/2) won that same 3-mile Ascot race last month, but he had the run of the green that day and I can’t see that happening here.  His stablemate Terrefort (best odds (4/1) was odds-on to win his seasonal debut, but his usual slick jumping fell apart, and he is on a recovery mission here. His win over 3m1f at Aintree last April (with Elegant Escape and Black Corton well beaten) puts him in with a great chance in this race, but he will need a paddock inspection if he turns up to run.  To see two Henderson horses in a race like this suggests (and this is me reading between the lines) there is no confidence in either.  I’m going to upset a few people here as I reckon Elegant Escape (best odds 11/4) is not improving at all, he is merely a super consistent and reliable horse. He has run (to my ratings) between 150-153 in 7 of his last 8 races, the only dip in form being here in the RSA Chase, and if Cheltenham doesn’t suit him that is not a good omen; he will need a lot of luck to beat Frodon. 

Minella Rocco (best odds 10/1) has struggled since running 2^nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Sizing John in 2017 (with subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River in 3^rd).  He’s been off the track since last February, and this would be his 1st run since having a wind-operation after falling in the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. He is also entered for the Skybet Chase at Doncaster.  He can go well off a long break as, following his win in the 4-mile NH Chase in 2016, he reappeared here in November 2016 to run a cracker off OR155 (and I was at Cheltenham that day and noted that he looked most unfit in the paddock, so his effort was all the more remarkable).  If he can get into a good rhythm, he may run a cracker.  With Allysson Monterg is completely outclassed, the only realistic rival to the fav is MINELLA ROCCO and at 10/1 (available generally) he’s worth a small wager but, to be honest, this looks a race to watch from the sidelines.

The remainder of the Cheltenham card looks tricky, although I do like the look of the top-weight in the novice chase SPIRITOFTHEGAMES.

Selections:

Cheltenham 2:25pm MINELLA ROCCO; £5 win @ 10/1 (available generally)

Cheltenham 3:35pm WHOLESTONE; £5 eachway @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Corals)

Doncaster 3:15pm ART MAURESQUE £5 eachway @ 10/1 (William Hill)

AND

WHOLESTONE @ 10/1 and ART MAURESQUE @ 10/1

£2.50 eachway double with William Hill – both 5^th odds a place 1,2,3

This Saturday's graded races at Cheltenham

We have a tremendous day of racing on Saturday, and I will be at Cheltenham for the “Trials” meeting.  The 3-mile “Cleeve” Hurdle (run at 3:35pm) looks a potential wagering race.

The current fav is Midnight Shadow, and this 6yo is improving with every run this season, and he dispelled of any doubts at handling the Cheltenham course after a poor run here on 18Nov with a good win over an extended 2m4f LTO.  The doubt over him is the trip and will he stay 3-miles? Prior to winning LTO, connections were contemplating a run in the Champion Hurdle, so I think he may be found out over this stiff trip.

The 2^nd-fav is Paisley Park, and while he has no stamina doubts over 3-mile, I don’t think he is anywhere as good as his OR156 rating suggests as he was fortunate that the race he won at Ascot LTO fell apart. 

Black Op reverts to hurdles after not excelling as a novice chaser, and this 8yo was a top-drawer novice who we know handles Cheltenham (he was 2^nd at this meeting to Santini last year) but, again, we don’t know if he will stay this trip, but he should.

Next in the betting is Aux Ptits Soins and back in 2016 he put up a grand effort after a year off the track, when 5^th (btn 40-lengths) in the 3-mile Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle won by Thistlecrack. Sent chasing that autumn, he won a 3-mile chase in Dec16, but was then put in his place by Zarkandar over hurdles in a 2m7f race at Haydock in Feb17.  I appreciate he won a handicap hurdle on 1^st Jan over C&D off OR141, but I very much doubt Dan Skelton has improved this 9yo by 15lbs to put him in with a chance of winning this.

Last year, my money was on Wholestone in this race, and he was outstayed by Agrapart on the heavy ground. That rival will not have the ground in his favour this year, and Wholestone also has the beating of Lil Rockerfeller, Uknowatimeanharry, Sam Spinner.  

With no worries over trip, ground, or course WHOLESTONE can reverse the places with Midnight Shadow, and looks tremendous value in a race filled with “what if’s and maybe’s” at odds of 8/1 with Ladbrokes and Corals.

  

The 3m1f &56 yard (Grade 2) Cotswold Chase will hang on whether course-specialist Frodon can stay the trip. He was 2^nd over 3-mile at Ascot in December 2017, and followed up that run with an emphatic win at this meeting over 2m5f the following month. He beat some proper 3-mile stayers that day, so there are no holes in the form, it just wasn’t strong enough to win this race. So, has the 7yo Frodon improved since then? I rated that 3-mile Ascot run at 158, and then rated the Cheltenham win at 163; so, if my assessment of 167 when he won here last month is correct, then he’s improved about 4lb.  Add the 4lb to his 3-mile rating of 158 and that makes his revised rating 162.

Valtor won that same 3-mile Ascot race last month and recorded 158, but he had the run of the green that day and I can’t see that happening here.

I’m going to upset a few people here as I reckon Elegant Escape is not improving at all, he is "merely" super consistent and reliable. He has run (to my ratings) between 150-153 in 7 of his last 8 races, the only dip in form being here in the RSA Chase, and that is not a good omen. 

Black Corton was also well beaten in that RSA Chase, but at least he has the excuse of the run coming at the end of a long season, but he is also just not good enough.  Paul Nicholls reports entering him only as a back-up if Frodon bruised a foot or something, so he will likely not line-up.

Terrefort (stablemate of Valtor) was odds-on to win his seasonal debut, but his usual slick jumping fell apart, and he is on a recovery mission here. His win over 3m1f at Aintree last April (with Elegant Escape and Black Corton well beaten) puts him in with a great chance in this race, but he will need a paddock inspection if he turns up to run.

Minella Rocco has struggled since running 2^nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Sizing John in 2017 (with subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River in 3^rd).  He’s been off the track since last February, and this would be his 1st run since having a wind-operation after falling in the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. He is also entered for the Skybet Chase at Doncaster, but connections state this race is his target.  He can go well off a long break as, following his win in the 4-mile NH Chase in 2016, he reappeared here in November 2016 to run a cracker off OR155 (and I was at Cheltenham that day and noted that he looked most unfit in the paddock, so his effort was all the more remarkable).  If he can get into a good rhythm, he may be run a cracker.

With Allysson Monterg completely outclassed, the only other contender is American and he ran 2^nd in this race after pulling-up in the Ladbrokes Trophy, and he tries to go one better with the same preparation but this year the ground will not be in his favour, and it’s quite possible he may miss this race.  

From this assessment, FRODON has a favorite’s chance and he could be as much as 7lb well-in at the weights.  The Henderson pair (Valtor and Terrefort) both have question-marks over them, but I expect Terrefort to run well. Elegant Escape and Black Corton really need the race to be a muddy slog, and both will require luck on their side to win. Odds of 9/4 could look huge come Saturday as FRODON may well line-up for this race at 7/4 or under.

Corals and William Hill offer 10/1 about Minella Rocco, and that is worth a "saver".