This Saturday's graded races at Cheltenham

We have a tremendous day of racing on Saturday, and I will be at Cheltenham for the “Trials” meeting.  The 3-mile “Cleeve” Hurdle (run at 3:35pm) looks a potential wagering race.

The current fav is Midnight Shadow, and this 6yo is improving with every run this season, and he dispelled of any doubts at handling the Cheltenham course after a poor run here on 18Nov with a good win over an extended 2m4f LTO.  The doubt over him is the trip and will he stay 3-miles? Prior to winning LTO, connections were contemplating a run in the Champion Hurdle, so I think he may be found out over this stiff trip.

The 2^nd-fav is Paisley Park, and while he has no stamina doubts over 3-mile, I don’t think he is anywhere as good as his OR156 rating suggests as he was fortunate that the race he won at Ascot LTO fell apart. 

Black Op reverts to hurdles after not excelling as a novice chaser, and this 8yo was a top-drawer novice who we know handles Cheltenham (he was 2^nd at this meeting to Santini last year) but, again, we don’t know if he will stay this trip, but he should.

Next in the betting is Aux Ptits Soins and back in 2016 he put up a grand effort after a year off the track, when 5^th (btn 40-lengths) in the 3-mile Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle won by Thistlecrack. Sent chasing that autumn, he won a 3-mile chase in Dec16, but was then put in his place by Zarkandar over hurdles in a 2m7f race at Haydock in Feb17.  I appreciate he won a handicap hurdle on 1^st Jan over C&D off OR141, but I very much doubt Dan Skelton has improved this 9yo by 15lbs to put him in with a chance of winning this.

Last year, my money was on Wholestone in this race, and he was outstayed by Agrapart on the heavy ground. That rival will not have the ground in his favour this year, and Wholestone also has the beating of Lil Rockerfeller, Uknowatimeanharry, Sam Spinner.  

With no worries over trip, ground, or course WHOLESTONE can reverse the places with Midnight Shadow, and looks tremendous value in a race filled with “what if’s and maybe’s” at odds of 8/1 with Ladbrokes and Corals.

  

The 3m1f &56 yard (Grade 2) Cotswold Chase will hang on whether course-specialist Frodon can stay the trip. He was 2^nd over 3-mile at Ascot in December 2017, and followed up that run with an emphatic win at this meeting over 2m5f the following month. He beat some proper 3-mile stayers that day, so there are no holes in the form, it just wasn’t strong enough to win this race. So, has the 7yo Frodon improved since then? I rated that 3-mile Ascot run at 158, and then rated the Cheltenham win at 163; so, if my assessment of 167 when he won here last month is correct, then he’s improved about 4lb.  Add the 4lb to his 3-mile rating of 158 and that makes his revised rating 162.

Valtor won that same 3-mile Ascot race last month and recorded 158, but he had the run of the green that day and I can’t see that happening here.

I’m going to upset a few people here as I reckon Elegant Escape is not improving at all, he is "merely" super consistent and reliable. He has run (to my ratings) between 150-153 in 7 of his last 8 races, the only dip in form being here in the RSA Chase, and that is not a good omen. 

Black Corton was also well beaten in that RSA Chase, but at least he has the excuse of the run coming at the end of a long season, but he is also just not good enough.  Paul Nicholls reports entering him only as a back-up if Frodon bruised a foot or something, so he will likely not line-up.

Terrefort (stablemate of Valtor) was odds-on to win his seasonal debut, but his usual slick jumping fell apart, and he is on a recovery mission here. His win over 3m1f at Aintree last April (with Elegant Escape and Black Corton well beaten) puts him in with a great chance in this race, but he will need a paddock inspection if he turns up to run.

Minella Rocco has struggled since running 2^nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Sizing John in 2017 (with subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River in 3^rd).  He’s been off the track since last February, and this would be his 1st run since having a wind-operation after falling in the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. He is also entered for the Skybet Chase at Doncaster, but connections state this race is his target.  He can go well off a long break as, following his win in the 4-mile NH Chase in 2016, he reappeared here in November 2016 to run a cracker off OR155 (and I was at Cheltenham that day and noted that he looked most unfit in the paddock, so his effort was all the more remarkable).  If he can get into a good rhythm, he may be run a cracker.

With Allysson Monterg completely outclassed, the only other contender is American and he ran 2^nd in this race after pulling-up in the Ladbrokes Trophy, and he tries to go one better with the same preparation but this year the ground will not be in his favour, and it’s quite possible he may miss this race.  

From this assessment, FRODON has a favorite’s chance and he could be as much as 7lb well-in at the weights.  The Henderson pair (Valtor and Terrefort) both have question-marks over them, but I expect Terrefort to run well. Elegant Escape and Black Corton really need the race to be a muddy slog, and both will require luck on their side to win. Odds of 9/4 could look huge come Saturday as FRODON may well line-up for this race at 7/4 or under.

Corals and William Hill offer 10/1 about Minella Rocco, and that is worth a "saver".