What is the future of horseracing

It’s been a long, hot summer; and a very strange one too. 

The Cheltenham Festival last March feels like it happened in a dream, and it very nearly didn’t come off at all.  I was there for the Gold Cup, and the Ryanair Chase the day before, and (even if I knew then what I know now) I’d go again if I had the chance.

None of us will see many dual Gold Cup winners in our lifetime, and I’m lucky enough to have witnessed 5 now (Arkle, L’Escargot, Best Mate, Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo) over the past 55 years, but I’ve only been in-attendance to witness the feat with my own eyes with Al Boum Photo.

With horseracing closing-down in March after the Cheltenham Festival, we lost the festivals at Aintree and Punchestown and, as such, horses with championship aspirations have missed vital top-class races which are imperative in their education.

Going into the 2020-21 jumps season “proper”, there are a lot of questions to answer, not least how is horseracing going to finance itself with no spectators!  I’ve been saying for as many years as I’ve been writing this blog that horseracing is due a restructuring, and the current crisis is almost certain to accelerate that restructure.

What I’m hoping is that the “powers that be” are recognising this likelihood and are planning for it.

Having attended Warwick races last Tuesday (as an owner) I had 1^st-hand experience of the situation on-course, and there was much to like. Given the vast amount of outdoor space available at a racecourse, I really cannot see why limited numbers of spectators can’t be safely accommodated – when I watched the races from the stands there were never more than 5 other people stood with me, and the 500 who attended on the Monday would have been easily accommodated safely. 

The one thing that probably will never return (without a vaccine for Covid) is on-course bookmaking.  As much as I hate to say it, that factor has died.

Right now, if I was in the BHA I would be negotiating with the Hong Kong Jockey Club about using their “tote” software and business model and looking to either purchase (or acquire a significant shareholding) of UK Tote Group Ltd; or set-up their own BHA “tote” as an income-stream for horseracing.

If the BHA are not thinking ahead, then I can see dire consequences coming, and coming fast. Chester racecourse has already declared that without spectators, they are not going to open for business in 2021.  We can expect many more tracks to come to that same conclusion very soon, especially the winter jumping tracks which – let’s be honest – are already operating on a shoe-string budget.  Without tracks you cannot race.  Adding more meetings to courses wont help the matter as the ground (especially in winter) won’t be able to cope.  The last thing we want to see is injuries to horses caused by running them on poor ground due to overuse.

Reduced prize-money is a double-whammy.  Last Tuesday, our club horse Jungle Prose won just £2,274 coming home in 1^st in the bumper. After fees and commissions, what is left is barely enough to cover 3-weeks training bills – I sometimes think I’d be better-off owning a greyhound at nearby Hove.

This season, I will be writing my usual weekend blog, and probably a review of the weekends racing on a Monday; with the aim of putting together a portfolio of wagers for the Cheltenham Festival in March 2021.  It seems to have worked well over the past couple of seasons, and I can also hopefully spot the occasional winner on a Saturday afternoon. 

I’m also tinkering with the idea of posting a Saturday “tip-sheet” available by donation-only, and I’m trying to locate a payment portal with a link that I can attach to my twitter feed; any suggestions would be gratefully received (via twitter: @wayward_lad).

There’s a couple of meetings today, but there's nothing much to recommend.

You are never to old to learn

Nobody can not be aware of the recent events which led to a close-down of horseracing in the UK and Europe.  Thankfully, for the industry, that close-down is coming to an end on Monday 1st June, when we have the first meeting of the new flat season run on the all-weather surface at Newcastle.
During the forced break, along with millions of others, I was required to work from home on "furlough" from 23rd March and managed to keep myself busy.
Then, on 8th April, I noticed something - horseracing was still operating in Hong Kong.
Having lived in the city for 7 years between 1990-97, and been a regular visitor to Happy Valley, as well as a very regular punter, I was more than interested in resuming an old relationship.
That first day was exploratory: I knew nothing of the horses, jockeys, form. A couple of small eachway wagers lost, but my enthusiasm was rekindled and I vowed to be back for the following Wednesday on 15th April. I chose the best race on the card that I had the best chance of finding the winner in - a Class 3 over 1200m - and I chose well, having an eachway wager on Island Shine at 8/1.
Since then, I've used the Hong Kong racing to review and reflect on my betting strategy.
I make no secret (via my twitter account) that I regularly revisit the Nick Mordin book "Winning Without Thinking" for inspiration and a confidence boost, and I would wholeheartedly recommend anyone who wants to place a regular wager on horseracing to read this book (with a highlighter and post-it notes).
There amongst the pages was advise that has really fine-tuned my gambling in recent weeks: nobody who seeks to gamble on horses with any degree of success does so unless they produce their own odds-line, and you cannot produce your own odds-line unless you produce your own ratings.
Producing ratings has been the backbone of blog since 2010.  Not everyone agrees with them, but that's the point - ratings are your OWN estimation of the form of the horses. If everyone had the same ratings, betting on horses would be a whole lot less profitable.
As soon as I became interested in Hong Kong's horseracing, I started producing ratings, and with just 2 meetings a week and every race televised, that was a simple operation.
Producing an odds-line was a bit more difficult.
For that I had to go back nearly 20 years to 2002, when I was a subscriber to a mail-only racing club called "Smartsig" (there was also an email forum, as this was before the days of the internet as it is now).  The raw data produced by Smartsig was groundbreaking stuff, and formed the basis of my odds-line calculations.
What I was striving to do was remove any unconscious-bias from my selections. I wanted to select horses based purely on race-form combined with the most likely circumstances that produced winners. I wasn't interested in gossip or hype, gallop reports, jockey opinion, or bookmakers publicity. So I produced a spreadsheet in 2002 that ran (luckily) in Excel which rated the horses in a race dependent on the data that I input, and that values attributed to that data.
Guess what?  It worked! Brilliantly in fact.
The first race I reviewed of the spreadsheet in its final form was a 3-mile chase at Folkstone, and the spreadsheet came up with a 12/1 chance in a field of 10 (trained by Paul Henderson). A tentative eachway wager came up trumps when the horse won easily.  Why didn't I continue? It was taking me nearly 2 hours to input the data per race, so I could only review one race a day.  My day-job (plus my complex personal life) was in the way, and the spreadsheet was saved to the hard-drive - until 13th May when I used it to prepare for the Happy Valley meeting that day.
I reviewed 4 races, and the spreadsheet came up with "best value" wagers on
Smart Leader - Won @ 9/4
Blastoise - 2nd @ 7/1 (beaten a neck)
Surrealism - Won @ 4/1 
Shamport - unplaced @ 11/2 (given poor ride, carried wide)
Since then, the spreadsheet has highlighted well-handicapped horses, that are fit, in-form and well-drawn, and available at value odds, and my profits have reflected that advantage.
I'm rethinking how I approach UK racing again, almost certainly reducing the number of races I look at and wager on, almost certainly produce ratings for more races than is required.
You are never too old to learn new tricks!

The 2020 Cheltenham Festival Blog performance

What a cracking final day of the Cheltenham Festival for the blog selections.
We went into the day with a £57.50 profit (typo y'day) on cumulative stakes of £141 - that's a 40% return on investment. Plenty of professional tipsters will be bragging about 25% ROI.
On the final day I advised wagers in just 3 races.
First-up was the Triumph Hurdles, and the jungle drums had been sounding out that GOSHEN was the best horse trainer Gary Moore had ever handled. I suggested a £5 win wager at 11/4 and a straight-forecast Goshen to beat Sir Psycho (the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string). If anyone watching the race thought Goshen would not win with half-a-mile to run, they must have been on the wacky-baccy.  coming to the final flight he was 15-lengths ahead - then disaster. Jumped a tad early, hit the hurdle but stood up, and then catapulted the jockey out of the saddle! The horse cantered on riderless for another 150 yards before the eventual winner caught him up. that's racing for you.
Next up the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
for me there was only one horse to wager on, and that was last years winner AL BOUM PHOTO. Talking to a horseracing sage before the event, we concluded that in Al Boum Photo we were getting 3/1 about a 6/4 chance - this was a Mullins trained Gold Cup winner going off at 3/1.
With that thought fresh in my mind I doubled my usual stake.
Was there ever any doubt?
The advised wager of £20 @ 100/30 was indeed very generous and another £66.65 into the profit.
I was full of confidence about the final selection of the day and of the week SHANTOU FLYER, as he had everything in his favour. The only danger I could see was the Mullins (as ever) trained Billaway who was tricky to rate. For the first 3-miles of the race, I thought Shantou Flyer was in the driving seat, but then Billaway started to make ground along with the 66/1 outsider It Came To Pass (last seen in January, pulling-up in a point-to-point at Kilfeacle in Ireland - I don't know where that is either - before that, he was 7th of 16 on Boxing Day at Down Royal when he was 23-lengths behind Billaway and carrying 2lb less). I can accept being beaten by the Mullins trained Billaway, but a 66/1 rank outsider? The only inkling of ability is that he's a half-brother to the Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere.

After a tremendous final day, and had Goshen jumped the final flight it could have been a much better result for the blog, we ended up with profit of £104.16 to recommended stakes of £186.00 - that is a return on investment of 56%.

I really hope you have enjoyed reading the blog, with my thoughts and reasons, and following me in on the wagers. It has been a great year. If you fancy buying me a pint for the pleasure, use the donate button and send me a few quid. All the best, and keep safe for next year.

Over the next few weeks I will make a full review of the results and give my thoughts for lessons learned.

Day 1 - Tuesday
Cash Back LOST (£10.00)
Mister Malarky LOST (£10.00)
THE CONDITIONAL - WON - £54.00
Ballyandy LOST (£10.00)
Conerstone Lad LOST (£10.00)
Lord Du Mesnil LOST (£10.00) 
Carried Forward = £4.00 profit
Staked = £64.00

Day 2 - Wednesday
Copperhead LOST (£20.00)
EASYSLAND - WON - £35.00
Carried forward = £19.00 profit
Staked = £30.00 (cumulative = £94.00)

Day 3 - Thursday
Itchy Feet LOST (£10.00)
MIN - WON - £25.00
Frodon LOST (£2.00)
Spiritofthegames LOST (£10.00)
CONCERTISTA - WON - £22.50
BOB MAHLER - 3rd (advised eachway) £13.00
Carried forward = £57.50
Staked = £47.00 (cumulative = £141.00)

Day 4 - Friday
Goshen LOST (£10.00)
AL BOUM PHOTO - WON - £66.66
Delta Work LOST (£5.00)
Shantou Flyer LOST (£10.00
Profit for the Week = £104.16
Cumulaive Stakes for the Festival = £186.00
Return on Investment = 56%

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4 (Friday)

We went into the 3rd day of the Festival holding a £15 profit on £94 staked over 5 races.
Day 3 is probably the trickiest as it holds 3 handicaps, alongside 3 championship races and a mares hurdle. Unfortunately, the selection in the 1st race, Itchy Feet, fell. However we were back in the game with the 2nd race when my narrative suggested that TOUT ES PERMIS would give you a good run for your money, and he ran 3rd after looking a like a winner 2-out. The Ryanair Chase saw the blog in profit pn the day as I advised a £10 win wager on eventual winner MIN at 5/2 (£25 profit).
The Stayers Hurdle threw-up a shock winner, but again the narrative suggested a long-odds placed horse in BACARDYS at 33/1.
In the handicap chase, we just missed a payday when selection Spiritofthegames came 6th, just a nose behind the 5th horse. Keep an eye on this one next time he runs, as he was left at the start and rattled home in the final mile and should have in the 1st 4.
There was no mistake over what won the Mares Hurdle: selection CONCERTISTA romped home (£5 win advised) at 9/2; that's £22.50 profit.
Finally, the Kim Muir, and I thought I'd found a handicap blot with Bob Mahler. Had he kicked-on after jumping the 3rd-last and opened up a lead, he would not have been caught. He stayed-on strong from the final fence to take 3rd (£5 ew advised at 18/1 = £13 profit).
Into the final day with £75.50 profit on £141 staked.

To be honest, I thought earlier this week that we would be watching these races being run behind closed doors, but the course will be open for business.

1:30 Triumph Hurdle over 2-mile and 179 yards
The whisper in the industry is that Goshen is the best horse trainer Gary Moore has ever had, and when you see how he's won his 3 hurdle races to date, you can see why. Which all makes you wonder what the handicapper was smoking when he rewarded Solo with a rating of OR157 for his debut (and only UK) win in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton? That is 6lb higher than GOSHEN. Of the others, Allmankind was impressive when winning LTO on 27Dec, but that 77-day break is too long to come here off for me (ave 34 days, Zaynar in 2009 was 55 days). Aspire Tower fell LTO and the record of fallers LTO winning at Cheltenham is dire, can anyone name one? He's a talented horse, but maybe on another day. Paul Nicholls (who trains Solo) also has Sir Psycho in the race, and this horse has improved for every run and was also impressive LTO when winning on 15Feb. While Solo may be the stable star, it would not surprise me to see this one trouble Goshen most.
Suggested Wager:
GOSHEN: £5 win @ 11/4
and £5 Exacta (Forecast) 5 (Goshen) to beat 9 (Sir Psycho)

2:10 County (handicap) Hurdle over 2-mile and 179 yards
Of the last 12 winner, 8 went off at odds longer than 20/1.
Stick to horses which have NOT won over trips longer than 2m1f, and 5yo and 6yo horses have a good record. The LTO winner CHRISTOPHER WOOD trained by Paul Nicholls looks interesting. He wasn't far behind Pentland Hills in a G1 at Aintree last April and he had a wind-op since then. He could be a lot better than his OR145 rating, and he looks a bit of a dark horse in this, he's 33/1 with Ladbrokes, and I only put him up as a "fun" wager if you want to get involved.

2:50 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3-mile
You would think that a championship hurdle race over 3-mile would be a decent betting race, but in the past 6 years the shortest SP for the winner has been 11/1 - last years winner Minella Indo went off at 50/1 and there was silence from the crowd! To be honest, I have not a clue about this race, and with 19 going to post, it would seem that the majority of trainers don't know either and that's why they are chancing their arm with an entry. The current 28/1 chance REDFORD ROAD has won over C&D which is (perhaps) useful information, and he seems to need a stamina test as he was one-paced when dropped to 2m4f NTO, but again I only put him up as a "fun" wager if you want to get involved.

3:30 Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase over 3-miles 2-furlongs & 70 yards
This is the big one of the day, and it looks an intriguing race.
Last year, I wrote that I was surprised Ruby Walsh wasn't riding AL BOUM PHOTO in what turned-out to be his final Cheltenham Gold Cup. There was a doubt back then over the stamina of Al Boum Photo, but the way he won the race last year he blew those doubts away. Personally, on my own ratings, nothing since has bettered that run, and Al Boum Photo could be one of the better Gold Cup winners of recent years.  I'm expecting him to win again, and put himself in the record books.
So what can beat him? Delta Work has improved immeasurably this season and they will get a better run out of him in this than they did in the RSA Chase last year, but there is also (in my opinion) a doubt over the jockey Mark Walsh, who rides the horse for the 1st time. I don't doubt his ability, but this will be a tough race to ride a horse for the 1st-time in.
I was at Cheltenham in January when Santini beat Bristol De Mai, and that day I didn't think we'd seen a Gold Cup winner. Bristol De Mai made a bad error 3-out and though he got back into the race, the effort told on the run-in. For me, Santini has to improve at least 7lb on that run to win this race.
Last year I was on Clan Des Obeaux, and he held every chance 2-out but he didn't stay the final 2-furlongs. He has since repeated his win in the King George at Kempton over 3-miles and that looks to be his best trip, and I would be looking for more than 12/1 to tempt me to placing an eachway wager on him to be placed as I just cannot see him winning.
Lostintranslation is interesting, when you look at his form in the autumn, but that he pulled-up LTO at Kempton and hasn't run since, plus his trainer Tizzard is having a terrible Festival (just 1 placed from 12 runners) you have to question his chance in this race.
Kemboy was a 1st-fence faller last year, then went on to win 2 x G1 chases including beating his stablemate Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. unfortunately, he's not looked the same horse so far this year, and will need to improve to win.  I'm also not happy that the amateur PW Mullins is riding as he's much better in hurdle races than as a jockey in chases.
Nothing else really has a chance in this, unless there are multiple fallers, and so I think this is between AL BOUM PHOTO @ 100/30, and Delta Work @ 5/1.
The odds are not great, I'm already on Al Boum Photo at 9/2 and Delta Work at 7/1 (see earlier blogs from this year).
Suggested Wager:
AL BOUM PHOTO: £20 WIN @ 100/30 (available generally)
DELTA WORK (saver bet): £5 WIN @ 5/1 (available generally)

4:10 Foxhunters Hunter Chase over 3-miles 2-furlongs & 70 yards
Last years 1st Hazel Hill and 2nd Shantou Flyer return, and this race is between that pair, the race fav Minella Rocco who was 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2017, and has looked a decent hunter-chaser this season, and the Irish challenger Billaway.
Minella Rocco has the beating of Hazel Hill from when they met on 1st Feb, and the Irish trained Billaway does not look good enough to me being only 8yo and rated only OR135.
So, can SHANTOU FLYER beat Minella Rocco? Absolutely!
He loves Cheltenham, he is still relatively young at 10yo (the same as Minella Rocco) but he's a much more professional horse, with no issues. Since being 2nd in this last year, he has switched stabled to Mrs Rose Loxton and lookes back to his best form - remember in March 2018, he was 2nd in the Ultima Handicap Chase on the opening day of the Festival running off OR152. Odds of 11/2 look good to me, and I'm rounding off my Festival with a win wager on him before heading off home to Brighton.
Suggested Wager:
SHANTOU FLYER: £10 win @ 11/2 (available generally)

Many thanks for reading the blog, it has been (again) a successful Festival for me. Whatever happens today I will be in profit for the week, and you cannot ask for more than that.  If you have enjoyed it, please send your thanks via twitter on @wayward_lad.
I've had to close the comments section on this blog to followers only due to repeated abuse, otherwise I would appreciate your response.
Aintree next!