What a cracking final day of the Cheltenham Festival for the blog selections.
We went into the day with a £57.50 profit (typo y'day) on cumulative stakes of £141 - that's a 40% return on investment. Plenty of professional tipsters will be bragging about 25% ROI.
On the final day I advised wagers in just 3 races.
First-up was the Triumph Hurdles, and the jungle drums had been sounding out that GOSHEN was the best horse trainer Gary Moore had ever handled. I suggested a £5 win wager at 11/4 and a straight-forecast Goshen to beat Sir Psycho (the Paul Nicholls 2nd-string). If anyone watching the race thought Goshen would not win with half-a-mile to run, they must have been on the wacky-baccy. coming to the final flight he was 15-lengths ahead - then disaster. Jumped a tad early, hit the hurdle but stood up, and then catapulted the jockey out of the saddle! The horse cantered on riderless for another 150 yards before the eventual winner caught him up. that's racing for you.
Next up the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
for me there was only one horse to wager on, and that was last years winner AL BOUM PHOTO. Talking to a horseracing sage before the event, we concluded that in Al Boum Photo we were getting 3/1 about a 6/4 chance - this was a Mullins trained Gold Cup winner going off at 3/1.
With that thought fresh in my mind I doubled my usual stake.
Was there ever any doubt?
The advised wager of £20 @ 100/30 was indeed very generous and another £66.65 into the profit.
I was full of confidence about the final selection of the day and of the week SHANTOU FLYER, as he had everything in his favour. The only danger I could see was the Mullins (as ever) trained Billaway who was tricky to rate. For the first 3-miles of the race, I thought Shantou Flyer was in the driving seat, but then Billaway started to make ground along with the 66/1 outsider It Came To Pass (last seen in January, pulling-up in a point-to-point at Kilfeacle in Ireland - I don't know where that is either - before that, he was 7th of 16 on Boxing Day at Down Royal when he was 23-lengths behind Billaway and carrying 2lb less). I can accept being beaten by the Mullins trained Billaway, but a 66/1 rank outsider? The only inkling of ability is that he's a half-brother to the Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere.
After a tremendous final day, and had Goshen jumped the final flight it could have been a much better result for the blog, we ended up with profit of £104.16 to recommended stakes of £186.00 - that is a return on investment of 56%.
I really hope you have enjoyed reading the blog, with my thoughts and reasons, and following me in on the wagers. It has been a great year. If you fancy buying me a pint for the pleasure, use the donate button and send me a few quid. All the best, and keep safe for next year.
Over the next few weeks I will make a full review of the results and give my thoughts for lessons learned.
Day 1 - Tuesday
Cash Back LOST (£10.00)
Mister Malarky LOST (£10.00)
THE CONDITIONAL - WON - £54.00
Ballyandy LOST (£10.00)
Conerstone Lad LOST (£10.00)
Lord Du Mesnil LOST (£10.00)
Carried Forward = £4.00 profit
Staked = £64.00
Day 2 - Wednesday
Copperhead LOST (£20.00)
EASYSLAND - WON - £35.00
Carried forward = £19.00 profit
Staked = £30.00 (cumulative = £94.00)
Day 3 - Thursday
Itchy Feet LOST (£10.00)
MIN - WON - £25.00
Frodon LOST (£2.00)
Spiritofthegames LOST (£10.00)
CONCERTISTA - WON - £22.50
BOB MAHLER - 3rd (advised eachway) £13.00
Carried forward = £57.50
Staked = £47.00 (cumulative = £141.00)
Day 4 - Friday
Goshen LOST (£10.00)
AL BOUM PHOTO - WON - £66.66
Delta Work LOST (£5.00)
Shantou Flyer LOST (£10.00
Profit for the Week = £104.16
Cumulaive Stakes for the Festival = £186.00
Return on Investment = 56%
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