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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 13 December 2014

Buck Mulligan doesn't buck the trend

Yesterday just about summed-up my season so far over the jumps. There were only a couple of horses from my alert list running, and both were in the same race: Buck Mulligan and Al Alfa. Personally, I thought Al Alfa was best suited to "sharp" tracks where he was able to exploit his ability to make-all and dominate a race, and Cheltenham isn't that sort of track. Buck Mulligan is a frustrating horse: he should be rated about 10lb above his current OR124 rating (he has been rated OR135 before) but he just won't see his races thru' when victory is in sight - and yesterday was a case in point. He could never be a "win" wager with any confidence. In my write-up yesterday, I thought the race was a poor one on paper and I couldn't understand why Liberty One was the 7/2 fav on what he'd shown to date. At least I knew my alert-list pair were both consistent (if frustrating) performers and I should have stuck with them in combination forecasts, as the Exacta paid £54.70 to a £1.

On to today, and the only race I'm looking at while typing this is the feature race at Cheltenham - the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap) over 2m5f. Only 13-runners go to post, which is a bit disappointing but, even so, there should be some value in this race. The race-fav is the recent Paddy Power Chase winner Caid Du Berlais who is up 5lb for that win. As such, he'll need to find some improvement to win this race. The 2nd-fav Barrakilla ran very well on his seasonal debut in what has turned out to be a solid handicap. He should improve for that run today and OR135 looks lenient - he could run to 142+. Also in that Sandown race was No Buts, who has since won and re-opposes Barrakilla on 10lb worse terms, so it is hard to see him holding Barrakilla on ground that may not be soft enough for him. Darna is the fly-in-the-ointment in this race as LTO after 2-years off the track he won a class 3 chase over 2m4f in a canter. He's up 10lb for that win to OR144 but, when he won at Ascot as novice chaser in April 2012, he looked well capable of being a 150+ chaser in time. There is a "bounce" factor to contend with, but I don't think this horse is the sort to do that (ie: run well below form on 2nd outing after a long break) as he was so well handicapped LTO that he merely had to finish the race to win it. At odds of 12/1 he looks very interesting as an eachway wager. The 8yo Attaglance was unlucky not to win at the Cheltenham Festival last March, but he's rated OR143 now and his trainer Malcolm Jefferson has a poor record at Cheltenham, so I have to overlook him. Not so the trainer of Ericht - Nicky Henderson. This horse was my selection for the Paddy Power Chase won by Caid Du Berlais, and he was bang there in it still when clouting the 2nd-last fence. As such, he comes into this race on the same OR137 rating, and that Henderson and Geraghty have returned for this race suggests they think he probably should have been in the mix LTO.

That's good enough for me, and odds of 10/1 (available generally) look good value to me.

Cheltenham 2:00 ERICHT, £5 eachway AND £5 win @ 10/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3)
Total Stake = £15

All the best from Wayward Lad

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