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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 5 December 2014

Tingle Creek at Sandown

Sometimes luck just won't swing your way. Claimer Jack Sherwood sent selection Wilton Milan into a clear lead 4-out and that was probably a bit too early as he couldn't hold off the eventual winner when he stayed-on strong in the closing stages. Given that Wilton Milan started at 6/4 and I was on at 5/2, I'm justified to feel a bit miffed.

Saturday see's jump racing return to Aintree for the Becher Chase over the National fences. However, at 1:00 there is an interesting chase handicap over 2m4f and it is OUR MICK that catches my eye. Once rated OR145 after running 2nd to Golden Chieftain at the Cheltenham Festival, he's slipped to OR132 after a series of disappointing runs - but LTO over this C&D he ran his best race since that Cheltenham run in March 2013. If OUR MICK can build on that run, he could be absolutely thrown-in for this race. Of the others, I think that Distime is handicapped to beat Baileys Concerto and depending on the odds (I'm writing this on Friday afternoon) he could be worth a wager.

Both the handicap chases over the National fences look terrific events. It looks like there are 24 starters for the 3m2f Becher Chase at 1:30 and Troytown Handicap Chase winner Balbriggan could catapult himself into the Grand National picture if he continues his improvement with a win in this race off OR130. The horse has always looked to possess potential, and he was on my alert list for a long time, but he disappointed me too many times and I honestly thought (before he joined Gordon Elliot in Ireland) that he didn't stay 3-mile. I thought BENBENS was unlucky LTO at Cheltenham, and he comes into this on the same rating and with the benefit of 5lb claimer Ryan Hatch. That could be enough to get him into the frame for this.

The shorter 2m5f & 110 yard Sefton Chase at 3:15 looks just as competitive. Top-weight Rolling Aces could find life tough in this race, even though he is a very good jumper of a fence. Dolatulo always runs a good race, and the ground will suit him better than that he ran on at Sandown, so he could run a great race. I was on FOUNDATION MAN in that race at Sandown and he fell early-on without showing his true form. It would not surprise me to see him run well in this race.

The feature race of the day is the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown at 3:00pm. Run over 2-miles, this has 10-runners this year and should be spectacular. The race fav is BALDER SUCCES and I've been tipping this one to be the champion 2-mile chaser and winner of the Tingle Creek and QM Champion Chase next March at Cheltenham every since he won at Aintree last April. Strictly on the formbook, he's better than his recent conqueror God's Own, but not by much. The novice chaser God's Own has improved with every one of his 5 chase runs to date, and if his improvement continues then he's going to take some beating in this. Of the others, nothing seems to be capable of finishing in front of this pair. I'd put Dodging Bullets ahead of Oscar Whisky; and Hinterland has too many issues to be considered. The others look outclassed.

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