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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 7 February 2015

It's cold out there

This weekend represents one of the final opportunities for trainers with genuine Cheltenham Festival horses to get a run in before the festival itself. My own stats, going back to 2002 (the year after the Festival was lost to foot & mouth disease), calculate that a typical Cheltenham Festival winner comes to the festival off a 36-day break, with its latest run being between Christmas Day and Valentines Day.

There are several meetings this weekend, Newbury being the feature meeting, and there are supporting meetings at Warwick and Uttoxeter. The feature race of the day is the Betfair Hurdle (handicap) over 2-miles & 110 yards at Newbury at 3:35pm and, with 24 runners going to post, it looks like a nightmare for the punter. I'm not going to attempt to find the winner of that race, and I'm looking for easier targets. The past couple of Saturdays, I've advised 3 winners (at odds of 3/1, 4/1 and 6/1) from just 4 selections, so I'm loo king for something similar. For instance, the Grade 2 Denman Chase at 2:25pm has only 6 runners going to post, and I'd be happy putting a line through a couple of those (Taquin Du Seuil and Double Ross). Last year, Harry Topper took this race apart but then he came into the race is good form; not so this year so whether he can recapture that form is debateable. In my book, there is about 10lb between Unioniste and Houblon Des Obeaux -in favour of the latter. Add that to the 4lb weight allowance and Houblon Des Obeaux has a lot in his favour. The "fly" could be the novice chaser Coneygree, but he has to find 15lb and more to win this and while he may do it, odds of 7/2 do not reflect that chance - I'd want more than 6/1. On all known form, and Houblon Des Obeaux ran 2nd in the Hennessey Gold Cup here at Newbury behind Many Clouds, you have to say that HOUBLON DES OBEAXU should be 5/4 to win this race, and not 100/30 with Paddy Power.

All eyes with be on Sire De Grugy to see if the Champion Chaser can come back from injury, and this looks a good opportunity if he's fit to run to his best. Personally, after such a long break due to an injury, I'd doubt he's going to be at his peak. That let's in the others who have had the benefit of a recent run and come here race-fit and in good form; of which (in my opinion) the pick is Mr Mole. I can't be tempted to have a wager on this race as if Sire De Grugy is fit and well, he will easily win this race but, if he isn't, then Mr Mole looks to be the one to take advantage.

As for the Betfair Hurdle at 3:35pm, if I was forced to have a wager, then I could be tempted to have small eachway punts on the John Quinn pair of Forced Family Fun (40/1) and Chieftain's Choice (16/1) who both look like they have been aimed at this race since winning LTO.

The is an interesting race at Warwick at 3:50pm.
It's a handicap chase over 2m4f & 110 yards with just 7 runners, of which the likely fav is the 5yo French import Camping Ground who will be having his UK racing debut. I say likely fav as I'm influenced by the Racing Post betting forecast, but the early odds for the race are all over the place with Camping Ground ranging from 7/2 with Bet365 to 7/1 with Ladbrokes. I can't see LTO winner Five Star Wilsham being successful as he merely outstayed the opposition LTO to win. There is nothing much between Tenor Nivernais and Ackertac on their running LTO at Ascot and I think there wont be much between them in this race either. Ackertac (7/1 at time of writing) has been dropped 2lb so holds a weight advantage, but the soft ground will favour Tenor Nivernais (5/1 at time of writing). Also in the race is Ohio Gold who is very well treated if recovering his form, but his last couple of runs have been poor. Al Alfa is a fav horse of mine, but he's handicapped to the hilt on OR127. That leave WILTON MILAN with whom the 5lb claimer Jack Serwood has formed a great relationship, and he showed LTO that on his rating of OR134 that he's competitve. Sure, he was outclassed LTO by Close Touch, but there is nothing like that in this race. I'm on already at 13/2 as think the bookies have misread this race.

Newbury 2:25 Houblon Des Obeaux, £20 win at 100/30 with Paddy Power
Warwick 3:50 Wilton Milan, £10 win at 13/2 with various bookies


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