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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday, 13 March 2015

Cheltenham Gold Cup Day 2015

No advised winners yesterday but we came close in the World Hurdle with Saphir Du Rheu, and there was also a good word for Call The Cops who won in a convincing manner in the Pertemps Hurdle.
The performance of the day, perhaps the meeting (we will see) was Vautour in the JLT Novices Chase over 2m4f - absolutely stunning performance.

Overnight rain may have softened the ground.

1:30  Triumph Hurdle for 4yo’s (2-miles & 1-furlong)
Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap  the Triumph Hurdle has developed into a serious Grade 1 contest in which the best 4yo hurdlers can show their promise. 
·         17 of the last 21 winners won LTO.
·         17 of the last 21 winners had won at least two hurdles;
In recent years the race has been dominated by Nicky Henderson (who provided the 5th & 6th in 2013), Paul Nicholls (who provided the 2nd & 3rd in 2013) and Alan King who have each sent out 2 winners. Henderson has 3 entries including the fav, but I prefer his 2nd-string Top Notch.

No selection advised.

2:05  Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2-miles & 1-furlong)
My favourite race of the final day and (as it happens) one of the most competitive of the NH season, a real cracker of a race. 
·         5yo’s have won 9 of the last 16 runnings;
·         Irish trainers have won 6 of the last 8 runnings;
·         4 of the last 5 successful UK trained winners were trained by Paul Nicholls;
·         The last 9 winners were rated between OR131 and OR139 
·         8 of the last 13 winners ran in either the Boylesports Hurdle at Leopardstown, or the Betfair Hurdle run at Newbury.
Based on the trends you have to consider the 5yo's Max Dynamite, Aso, and Forced Family Fun, but not Nicholls entry Dormello Mo who has not had a recent run. The bottom-weight Forced Family Fun is 50/1 with a number of bookies who all go 5-places eachway.
No advised wager, but worth a "tickle".

2:40  Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3-miles)
Introduced in 2005, this race celebrates its 11th anniversary and, in my opinion, it already has a roll of honour that makes it a worthy addition to the Festival race roster.
·         Just 2 of the 11 winners started at longer odds than 9/1
·         No previous winner raced on the flat.
·         7 of the 11 winners had previously run at Cheltenham
·         7 of the 11 winners had run a race over 3-miles
There is no hiding place for those lacking in stamina and it will likely that the winner will already have won over the 3-mile trip but (as with 2011 Bobs Worth) that is not a necessity.  In my opinion, the ability to stay 3-mile at this Grade 1 level is comparatively rare, especially amongst novice hurdlers.
The unexposed Out Sam has only his 3rd hurdle race today having won both his other starts, and he could be capable of a lot of improvement today. He's 16/1 with several bookies.
OUT SAM, £5 eachway @ 16/1 available generally.

3:20  Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (3-miles and 2½ furlongs)
The race considered to be the climax of the meeting.
·         14 of the last 16 winners had already won a race that season;
·         13 of the last winners were in the 1st-3 in the betting;
·         Only Best Mate (in 2003 & 2004) has retained the Gold Cup since L’Escargot in 1971, 
·         No winner aged 10yo or older since Cool Dawn (aged 10yo) won in 1998 (and he was a 25/1 outsider) and before that Cool Ground (also 25/1) who was also a 10yo when winning in 1992.

It is very likely that readers will have already formed an opinion on which horse they will be supporting in the Gold Cup. It is that sort of race, a race of strong opinions and the taking of sides. Virtually nothing that I write here will persuade anyone to alter their opinion. Last year I was solidly behind Silviniaco Conti and he looked the most likely winner jumping the 2nd-last fence. However, he's a stayer with no change of gear and was unable to withstand the challenge of others on the run-in. Even so, he wasn't beaten much, and I expect this year he will be sent on earlier and make it a real stamina test on the 2nd-circuit.
I've had an eachway wager on Coneygree at 12/1 antepost, and he could be the one that beats him as he is unexposed at this level and we've seen already this week how bold jumping front-runners can dominate chase races.
However, I feel that Silviniaco Conti is guaranteed to be in the 1st-3 should he get round safely, and odds of 9/2 look fair value.
SILVINIACO CONTI, £10 eachway @ 9/2 available generally.

No further selections as I'll hopefully be on the Guiness aftger the Gold Cup.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for your coverage of the Cheltenham Festival. I've had a few people saying how much they enjoy your post and statistical/knowledge of the big event.

    Always a good read.