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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 25 September 2015

Alert List update is completed - let battle commence!

The alert list review has been completed and is now ready for the 2015-16 Jumps season.

After a major culling, the list is down to just 99 horses (at one point last season there were over 240 on the Alert List) of which less than a handful are 9yo, with nothing older. 
The list revolves around a select bunch of 2nd-season chasers, filled with potential; and talented hurdlers which have the potential to become useful novice chasers.

Those that have been omitted from the list are either:-
- too old: there won’t be many decent handicap chases won by a 10yo or older this autumn;
- too exposed: when a horse has run more than 15 times the handicapper usually has their measure;
- too high in the handicap: some horses attract the handicappers attention early;
- have been injured too long: I can allow a horse a season off the track but, if they are off the scene any longer it is unlikely they will come back. There is no room for sentiment;
- or have been retired: those old hands that have left the scene include the likes of  Goulanes, Molotof, Nuts N Bolts, Pullyourfingerout, Sizing Santiago, and Sydney Paget; although some of these "retired" horses may end up hunter-chasing.

However, there are about 25 new additions to the alert list (that is horses that were not on the list last April) following a recent review of the form from last season.

The plan is to advise readers of the blog when alert list runners are racing, and to advise whether optimum conditions exist to warrant a wager. For many on the list, optimum conditions are not a prerequisite to a wager – simply following them when they next run is the advice.

Now the alert list update is over, I can use my available time to work on my Cheltenham Festival Trends update, which forms part of my Cheltenham Festival Bulletin.  If you have the time, I’d recommend taking a look at the Festival races from March again –this time, with the benefit of having the formbook open alongside.  You can pick up what are (hopefully) terrific pointers for the coming season. For instance, there is one horse in particular that I've noted that ran a terrific race over a trip that wasn’t his optimum, and that was after an interrupted preparation too.  He’s not gone up in the weights for that effort and, if he’s placed over his optimum trip and ground this autumn he could scoot in.  I reckon he has about 10lb in-hand over his current handicap rating.

There are a couple off the alert list running today at Worcester:-
CLOUDY BOB in the 1:50 at Worcester and UPSWING in the 2:20 at Worcester.

I like CLOUDY BOB as he's a genuine horse who usually gives his best. The ground isn't soft enough for him to be at his best, but this looks a weak race and he could sneak a win at long odds; he is currently 10/1 with BetVictor and Paddy Power. I do not think the race-fav Hawaii Five Nill will stay this trip, Valadom is more interesting, but he will need to improve on his debut 16-days ago to win this. He also looked like this 2m4f trip is possibly more than he wants.  CLOUDY BOB last won last November (10-months ago) off OR121, and he races off a 2lb lower rating today. Ignore his last couple of runs as they were beyond his stamina limits.  Instead, focus on his run off OR122 at Kempton last February where he was only beaten by the progressive Comeonginger in a quick time for the ground.  He's worth an eachway wager today.

Beginners chases would not be many peoples betting medium, and therefore I cannot recommend a wager on UPSWING. That said, he has the best hurdle form of this field, and he stays 3-mile. Unfortunately, he did not look like a natural jumper of a fence when we saw him last season, so it has to be hoped that he's been well schooled since. This is a race to watch.

Worcester 1:50 CLOUDY BOB, £5 eachway at 10/1 (with Bet Victor or Paddy Power, 5th odds a place 1,2,3)
Total Staked = £10

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