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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 29 September 2016

Early Days

I was correct about Johns Spirit yesterday. He seems to have lost his way completely as he should have been capable of winning this race even on last seasons form but, it appears, he's still going backwards.
If you read the blog and "layed" Johns Spirit to lose - even after the non-runners reduced the race-field to just 3 - then good luck to you and well done.  That is what the narrative of the blog is there for, to allow the reader to match the benefit of my opinion with their own assessment of risk.
The ground was too quick for most of the field, hence the non-runners.
Today there is a meeting at Warwick, but I will not be spending too much time over it.  At this time of the season, fitness can be more important than formlines.
There is an interesting Class 3 chase at Warwick at 4:10pm which sees the return of No Buts to the track after a break due to injury. Unfortunately for him, the trip of 3-miles is almost certainly beyond his stamina, and the "good" ground will be too quick for him - all his best form is on soft or heavy ground.
The unexposed Benzel won LTO but the value of that form is dubious as the horse he beat so easily over 3-miles that day clearly does not stay the trip.
Ready Token also won LTO, but that was in May.  However, he seems to be following the same path as last season when, afer a win in June, he won on 5th October, so it is likely his trainer Charlie Longsdon has him fit to race.  We know he stays 3-mile well, and he handles the "good" ground; the worry is he was raised 12lb for that win LTO to OR125 and that leaves little room for error.
The 9yo Velator has bundles of experience, stays 3-mile very well and will handle the gound, but he is a bit one-paced.  He's been knocking on the door for a long time now and if you discount his last couple of runs for which he has legitimate excusues, and focus on his 2nd to Bincombe on 12th July then you have got to think he has a strong chance here. The remaining pair of Horsehill and Follow The Swallow both look like they may have a small chance on old form but are hard to work out. If I was pushed to make a selection, it would be VELATOR at 5/1 (available generally) but as it would not be a surprise to see any one of the others (apart from No Buts) win then I can't make a recommendation.
Sunday brings us the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe from Chantilly in France and, on paper, it looks a decent race. If it all goes well, then Postponed will take all the beating, but things don't always go to plan and the current odds leave no room for comfort.
No selection today.

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