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Sunday 2 October 2016

Sunday 2nd October - Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe

A busy Sunday with 3 jump meetings at Kelso, Huntingdon and Uttoxeter plus the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe from Chantilly in France. 
Unfortunately, most of the jump racing is fairly ordinary and the only races better than Class 4 are at Kelso where we have the handicap chase over 2m1f which has been won for the past 2 years by Simply Ned; and at Uttoxeter where there is a Class 3 beginners chase and a Class 3 handicap hurdle.
First, the 4:30pm at Kelso where Simply Ned bids to win this race for the 3rd time.  This was the only race he won last season, but his form was fairly decent all season and it is only because he is just below the very best 2-mile chasers that he does not win more races. That said, I don't think he's as good as his official rating of OR158 but his opposition looks so poor he probably won't need to be.  It is hard for me to see Witness In Court repeating his win of LTO over this shorter trip as the opposition that day was indifferent. I reckon Theflyingportrait has been harshly treated raised to OR133 and while he could run well he will need a career-best to win. Domtaline is 12lb out of the handicap and outclassed. As such, I am expecting Simply Ned to win fairly easily and it would be no surprise to see him start at odds-on.

It is difficult to assess the Class 3 beginners chase at Uttoxeter at 2:55pm as the odds-on fav Value At Risk has yet to complete a chase race having fallen on both starts so far.  Yes, he is the best horse in the race but you also have to jump the fences to win a chase race. The Class 3 hurdle is run over a trip just short of 3-miles and the emphasis on stamina is one that I enjoy exploiting as not many horses have the combination of stamina and speed to win hurdle races over 3-miles. I don't think the current race-fav Some Are Lucky has it as he was left in the lead 3-out when raced over 3-mile LTO and failed to win. However, all his other rivals have issues of their own and it is no surprise that there are 6 of the 8 runners in the race priced at odds of 6/1 or less.

Over in France we have the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe being run at Chantilly for the 2nd time while Longchamps undergo's a major revamp.  I think this year the race is lacking depth and therefore it is no surprise that the fav at 2/1 is Postponed - he has a tick in just about every box. However, as he's in the race it is likely that he will ensure a good pace for the race and that will aid the chances of 2 others in the race: Derby winner Harzand and the 4yo filly Found.  If Harzand finds his Derby-winning form then (at the weights) he will be hard to beat. As for FOUND, she was unlucky in the race last year and did well to finish where she did, and subsequent form suggest that she would have gone very close to winning last year with a clear run.  I think she's a better horse this season and he latest run puts her right in the picture.  Luck always seems to play a part in the "Arc" and she is more than due a slice of it.

No selection today, and from Monday the blog will only be sent out via email to those who have donated.  

1 comment:

  1. FOUND

    .....and they say you're a 'Jumps Only# man :)