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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 19 January 2017

Notes for Thursday 19th Jan 2017

The cold snap I've been experiencing this week apparently exists only over the South-East of England, but there is an inspection at 8am at todays Wincanton meeting, though Ludlow has no issues.

There is a 3-mile Class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow for amateur riders at 3:35pm which could provide a wagering opportunity.  The 9/4 fav is Still Believing but he does not look capable of winning at 3-mile at this level. Yes, he has won here twice (once on heavy ground) but he's been raised 10lb for his latest win to OR126 and that puts a different complexion on things. For me, the 2nd-fav Port Melon is more interesting as he is the quality horse in the race, and lightly raced for a 9yo. Port Melon goes well fresh (won first-time-up in Nov15) and his run at Kempton last April suggests that he could be well-in by about 7lb.  My worry is that the ground may be a bit too soft for him.  The 10yo Valleyofmilan is just too unreliable to be considered.  Capard King has slipped down the ratings from OR139 to OR127 today - and he's won 3-mile chases off OR135 and OR136 - but both those wins were at Southwell and Ludlow is a completely different track to that one. Will he be able to handle it?
Royal Palladium could possibly dominate throughout from the front, that's where he likes to be and there does not seem to be another in the race to challenge him for the lead. He ran well in this race two years ago off OR124 till falling 3-out, but that was only his 4th chase race and I can excuse him that error.  If he is challenged for the lead then he will throw-in the towel.  The ground probably is not soft enough for I Am Colin, and the remaining pair of Gallery Exhibition and Gone To Far don't look capable of winning this.  
Trainer Paul Nicholls does not send many horses to Ludlow and although PORT MELON isn't the main reason for coming here today - he runs the fav Amour De Nuit in the opening 2m5f maiden hurdle and he could be heading for the Cheltenham Festival - it looks like the horse has been prepared with this race as his main target.  Odds of 9/2 look fair to me as he is unlikely to be out of the 1st-3 home.

At Wincanton, the Somerset National Chase Handicap over 3m2f is the feature race of the day. The race-fav is Dawson City who was my Boxing Day selection but the race was voided.  He followed that up with a good 2nd at Plumpton which suggested he would have gone close on Boxing Day. He was also 2nd in this race last year off OR125, so off just 2lb higher in the handicap he should not be far away, and we know he's in good form. There is no way I can consider the 12yo Alfie Spinner, and Onderun looks held by the fav judged on their meeting at Plumpton LTO.  Also in that race was Sartorial Elegance who unseated his rider 4-out when going well, and he looks unexposed.  The winner of that Plumpton race, Morney Wing runs off a 5lb higher rating of OR128 and that may well find him out, though he should run well again.  The 10yo Saroque has slipped from OR132 to OR119 today, but his recent form looks poor and I cannot see he turning that around today. Abracadabra Sivola was a highly tried novice chaser who has needed his runs this season and it's hoped that he is fit to run to his best form today which would be enough to put him in the picture. All-in-all this looks a tricky race to fathom, and it looks like any of those that ran at Plumpton LTO (Dawson City, Onderun, Sartorial Elegance, or Morney Wing) could go close in this race and the market looks to have this race about right. 

Although PORT MELON should be in the places, amateur rider races are not the best of betting mediums and so there is no advised selection from me today.  There is some good racing this weekend and I'm hopeful of finding a decent winning wager then.

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