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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 7 January 2017

Wayward Lad's notes for Sat 7th Jan 2017

A quiet Saturday with only 2 jump meetings at Sandown and Wincanton, with perhaps the highlight of the day being the 3-mile Veterans Chase which - in my opinion - should be part of the Cheltenham Festival.It is the final of the Veterans series and what a fantastic group of handicap chasers has it brought together - tremendous.

What is disappointing is that the horse I was going to advise this morning, is now a non-runner - Forgotten Gold. So it is back to the drawing board. I cannot entertain Dynaste as he hasn't looked to be enjoying the sport for a long time now. I think the OR145 rating is too much for Gas Line Boy, but he will run well, he always does his best.

Aerial isn't up to this as he showed LTO, and I consider this trip too short for Rocky Creek although he does love running right-handed and looks to be the quality horse in the race. Theatrical Star has been going backwards for a long time now and even OR127 isn't enough to help him win. Cloudy Too has a lot of support but he needs it soft/heavy and all his chase wins have come on soft heavy ground, and the same goes for Wychwoods Brook. The softening ground is against Shuil Royale, and Aachen at 13yo is surely too old for this.

Loose Chips loves running right-handed and this 3-mile trip will suit him much better, as he did not stay beyond 3-mile in the race won by Rocky Creek LTO - that was over nearly 3m5f. I can see him going a long way in this race as he is only 2lbs above his rating when winning  C&D in November. If this race were over 2m5f then I would be all over Ericht as he is about 8lb better than his OR132 rating - but he does not stay a yard more than 2m6f and he could well be thereabouts 2-out only to fail to run on and come home 3rd or 4th. He looks a good place-only wager on the exchanges.

At odds of 16/1, Loose Chips looks an interesting eachway wager, but the class horse in the race and one that will appreciate the ground and enjoy going right-handed is ROCKY CREEK and at 9/1 (available generally) he looks the value wager as, having won here LTO and the time before, he should be the 5/1 fav in my opinion.

At Wincanton, I am not surprised that there has been a market move for WALK IN THE MILL in the 2:05pm chase over 2m4f as he looks well-in on recent form being possibly 10lb better than his OR126 rating.

A lot of his rivals - other than Fox Appeal - have something to prove and Fox Appeal is unreliable. Yes, he won like a good thing LTO but I will be surprised if he runs like that again today. Even at 7/2, WALK IN THE MILL looks fair odds but we have missed the value. 

Sandown 3:00pm, ROCKY CREEK - £5 eachway @ 9/1 (available generally, quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4)

1 comment:

  1. Only went and put the wrong one of the pair up as the selection as WALK IN THE MILL won in a canter at the remarkable odds of 9/2.
    As for Rocky Creek he never really wanted to be there and was back-pedalling a long way out. I did write that LOOSE CHIPS would go well and he stayed on strong at 16/1 to be 3rd. I even put in a good word for Gas Line Boy who came in 4th.