My focus is on Kempton is on the Betbright Chase (handicap) over 3-miles, and this is one of the races we will lose when Kempton closes its doors in a few years time if the BHA have their way.
Looking at the market leaders for this race, I can sense an upset as they all look vulnerable. The current 5/1 fav Double Shuffle has been raised 7lb to OR149 for his LTO win over C&D, but I feel that could be a bit too much for him. He is in form though, and he does seem to hold his form well, and he stays this trip so his odds are about right. Also on 5/1 is Irish Saint and if he can recapture the form of his novice season (he missed a year through injury) then he is well-ahead of the handicapper on OR146 as I think at his peak he was about 154-156. However, he hasn't looked like running to that level this season. This is a new trip for THREE MUSKETEERS but, when he won over 2m5f LTO, he looked as though a step-up in trip would not trouble him. He is unexposed, but has a touch of class and looks to be on the upgrade so the current odds of 8/1 look very attractive especially as those at longer odds do not offer much hope of being involved. This is a race that tends to be won by a horse in good form and the only other couple of horses tat hat been running well recently are LTO winner Fingerontheswithch, who has been raised 13lb by the handicapper for that win (which seems very harsh) and Aso who probably will not stay this 3-mile trip as he seems to only just about stay 2m5f.
Newcastle stages the 4-mile Eider Chase and it is likely to be gruelling. You really need a horse that stays these marathon trips well, speed is not in any way required to win this race at Newcastle, just the ability to finish the race. It is therefore no surprise that Shotgun Paddy heads the betting, but I feel he lacks that final edge to win these days and he hasn't won a race since January 2014. Mysteree goes well at Newcastle and was 4th in this race last year but the horse that stands of for me is KNOCKANRAWLEY who ran a cracker LTO given it was his first run in 14 months. Even better, the handicapper has dropped him 3lb to OR133 and he is a horse who looks made for this marathon trip. He jumps well and usually runs up with the pace which I think is always an advantage in these marathon races. Odds of 11/1 look very attractive and I expect that Kim Bailey has had this race marked in the calendar for a long time.
The internet has been playing-up here hence the delay in sending out this email.
Newcastle 2:45pm KNOCKANRAWLEY, £4 eachway @ 11/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3,4 available generally)
Kempton 3:35pm THREE MUSKETEERS, £4 eachway @ 8/1 (quarter-odds a place 1,2,3 available generally)
£2 eachway double
Total = £20 staked
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