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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 3 November 2017

Will Sametegal be up for it today off a 608-day break?

It was not to be yesterday for Cribbs Causeway, despite a valiant effort to make a race of it from the front having had the disadvantage of being drawn 12 of the 13 starters (officially drawn 13, but there was a non-runner).  The race went pretty much as I expected and it was a good "Listed" race considering the runner-up Melodic Motion had been beaten just half-a-length in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster in September.  In the paddock beforehand, I was very taken with the filly Daphne who went on to win the race and, having read the post-race comments of the trainers wife (who was in attendance), the stable had worked hard to ensure she was up for this race as it was probably the last opportunity for this 4yo filly to obtain so "black-type". There was certainly a gamble on the horse which was 7/1 in the morning and started at 7/2 - and I don't think it was due to her owner The Queen! That could be it for the season for Cribbs Causeway, but she will return in 2018, and maybe we could see a step-up in trip as I don't think it was a lack of stamina that beat her yesterday.

I also had an eye on the jump racing at Sedgefield yesterday, in particular the Durham National Handicap Chase over 3m5f, and the short 6/4 fav in that race Audacious Plan may well have won but he only just held-on to win by a neck from the strong finish of Boric.  The runner-up was last seen being caught on the line by Vic De Touzaine on 19-Oct,  and that makes Vic De Touzaine very interesting for the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot tomorrow (Saturday).

We have a couple of good meetings over the jumps today at Wetherby and Uttoxeter.
At Wetherby we have the "Listed" Bet365 Chase over an extended 2m3f, and it is an intriguing contest of 7 runners. When I went through the form the horse that grabbed my attention was the 9/4 fav Sametegal, but he has been absent from racing for 608 days and while I expect him to be fit for this race there is always a doubt with horses returning from a long lay-off. However, he has done this before and won and while this is a tougher race than that one, he does have a decent rating of OR144 to race off.  The one that I think will outrun his rating in this race is MARQUIS OF CARABAS who had a run 35-days ago and while he was outclassed by the winner of that race (who has since won again) his rating of OR129 looks lenient. I think Royal Vacation is not as good as his OR152 rating, and I will be surprised if Guitar Pete can find any more improvement as he was race-fit LTO. I am not sure that Marquis Of Carabas can win this afternoon, but he could be worth including in a speculative forecast with the race-fav Sametegal. I can't make Sametegal a selection as I do not think his odds of 9/4 are value, and I would be looking for something longer than 3/1 before having a wager.

There is a lot of good racing tomorrow and, when you have the prospect of good wagering opporunities, it can pay to be patient and play another day. 

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