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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday, 24 February 2018

Value in the Betdaq Chase

Today is possibly the last Saturday before the Cheltenham Festival that we can find some Festival winning form - and yet what a disappointing Saturday of racing we have. There are just two jumps meetings at Kempton and Chepstow, with Newcastle, Lingfield and Wolverhampton staging all-weather meetings of flat racing. There is a jumps meeting in Ireland at Fairyhouse, but that doesn't count in my eyes.

The Chepstow meeting is very ordinary fare - a Class 2 handicap chase run over 2-mile is the feature race of the day there and it has attracted only 7 runners, the highest rate being the 12yo Eastlake who runs off OR147 but is very inconsistent.  As it is, the youngest horse in the race is the 9yo Baby King and he may just be the answer as he does like to get his toe in the ground and the sfot ground at Chepstow will be to his liking.  It may have been the slighty better good-to-soft ground that upset him when he met Overtown Express at Newbury in December over an extended 2-miles, and though he was well beaten that day, BABY KING did start the fav and is 4lbs better-off now with Overtown Express who's form has taken a dip since. In 2nd that day in December was Rock On Rocky and he went close NTO but was disappointing LTO here at Chepstow on heavy ground.  BABY KING is the current 15/8 fav which looks a tad short to me - I'd be looking for 5/2 at least.

Earlier on the Chepstow card, I like the look of EDDIEMAURICE in the Class 3 handicap hurdle at 3:05pm. This horse had had a lot of races so holds no surprises - but he is consistent, and the soft ground and 2-mile trip should play to his strengths.  Odds of 6/1 look fair value as the fav Diable De Sivola is on quite a high OR135 rating, and Moabit looked to be out of love with the hurdling game LTO after spending the latter part of 2017 racing on the flat.

At 3:40pm there is a Class 2, 2m7f handicap hurdle, and BOOK OF GOLD has the best recent form, running 2nd LTO over 3-mile at Newbury having pressed the leader most of the way, That was his 1st run at this sort of trip and with stamina proven he will not be far away.

Having once has a mare in training (with a syndicate) with Sheena West who trains at Falmer on the outskirts of Brighton (where I live) I will be rooting for HARMONISE in the Adonis Hurdle run at Kempton at 2:25pm.  Sheena needs a bit of luck, as she has the talent to prepare and place a horse when she has the ammunition.  Unfortunately, she's struggling to find owners and I think she is  down to under half-a-dozen horses in her stable. If you have a syndicate with owners based in the South East of England, there's no better place I'd send your horse that Sheena's friendly stable on the glorious South Downs with Plumpton, Fontwell, and Lingfield within easy reach.

The feature race of the day is at Kempton at 3:35pm and it's the Betdaq Handicap chase run over 3-miles.  With 15-runners going to post this is a most competitive race, but I hope I can give you a pointer to a profit in it.    The fav Acting Lass will not be able to hit a flat-spot like she did LTO, and at 4/1 she isn't the value in this race. Similarly, the 2nd-fav Tintern Theatre is not a safe enough jumper of a fence.  I think this 3-mile trip could find out Art Mauresque and it's interesting that Nicholls hasn't put Bryony Frost and her 3lb claim in the saddle.  The trip is also a worry when considering Theatre Territory, as it is with the 9yo Master Dee. No trip problems with the 12/1 chance GO CONQUER though, as he tore apart a good field in the Sodexo Gold Cup over 3-mile at Ascot in November before an uncharacteristic error at the 14th fence when returning to Ascot in December did for his chances LTO.  If he can repeat the Ascot form today then he has a terrific chance of making all on this track that does favour a front-runner.  Of the others, I am really surprised that AS DE MEE  is trading at 33/1; he stays 3-mile really well (won over 3m2f in October beating Wakanda) and he chased home Go Conquer when they met at Fontwell in October. He was giving that horse 3lb that day (Bryony Frost - and her 5lb claim - was in the saddle) and he's in receipt of 2lb today - he could be one for a place-only wager as he should fill one of the minor places with a clear round.

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